1X2 — home / draw / away probabilityOver 0.5 HT — at least 1 goal in first halfOver 2.5 FT — 3 or more total goalsBTTS — both teams score
Predictions derived from international Elo ratings, converted to expected goals via Poisson model. Fair odds = 1 / probability, no margin applied.
Group Stage88 matches
–
Group A
–2-0
MexicoSouth Africa
Mexico
57%
Fair 1.74
Draw
25%
Fair 4.01
South Africa
18%
Fair 5.69
Elo 1750 vs 1490 · xG 1.6-0.76
▾ Over 0.5 HT · Over 2.5 FT · BTTS
Over 0.5 HT
59%Fair 1.69
Over 2.5 FT
42%Fair 2.38
BTTS Yes
42%Fair 2.38
–
Group A
–2-1
South KoreaCzechia
South Korea
43%
Fair 2.33
Draw
29%
Fair 3.5
Czechia
29%
Fair 3.5
Elo 1710 vs 1620 · xG 1.25-0.97
▾ Over 0.5 HT · Over 2.5 FT · BTTS
Over 0.5 HT
57%Fair 1.75
Over 2.5 FT
38%Fair 2.63
BTTS Yes
44%Fair 2.27
Group B
–1-1
CanadaBosnia & Herzegovina
Canada
25%
Fair 3.99
Draw
28%
Fair 3.59
Bosnia & Herzegovina
47%
Fair 2.12
Elo 1460 vs 1600 · xG 0.9-1.35
▾ Over 0.5 HT · Over 2.5 FT · BTTS
Over 0.5 HT
57%Fair 1.75
Over 2.5 FT
39%Fair 2.56
BTTS Yes
44%Fair 2.27
–
Group D
–4-1
USAParaguay
USA
53%
Fair 1.88
Draw
26%
Fair 3.8
Paraguay
21%
Fair 4.88
Elo 1760 vs 1550 · xG 1.49-0.81
▾ Over 0.5 HT · Over 2.5 FT · BTTS
Over 0.5 HT
58%Fair 1.72
Over 2.5 FT
40%Fair 2.5
BTTS Yes
43%Fair 2.33
Group B
–1-1
QatarSwitzerland
Qatar
13%
Fair 7.43
Draw
22%
Fair 4.49
Switzerland
64%
Fair 1.56
Elo 1400 vs 1740 · xG 0.67-1.79
▾ Over 0.5 HT · Over 2.5 FT · BTTS
Over 0.5 HT
61%Fair 1.64
Over 2.5 FT
45%Fair 2.22
BTTS Yes
41%Fair 2.44
Group C
–1-1
BrazilMorocco
Brazil
46%
Fair 2.16
Draw
28%
Fair 3.57
Morocco
26%
Fair 3.89
Elo 1950 vs 1820 · xG 1.33-0.91
▾ Over 0.5 HT · Over 2.5 FT · BTTS
Over 0.5 HT
57%Fair 1.75
Over 2.5 FT
39%Fair 2.56
BTTS Yes
44%Fair 2.27
Round of 168 matches
Quarter-finals4 matches
Semi-finals2 matches
3rd Place Play-off1 matches
Final1 matches
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