Copa Sudamericana 2026: Group Stage Report
Group stage nearing completion — Botafogo, Atletico Torque and Olimpia lead a competitive field. At 2.22 goals per game, the 2026 Sudamericana mirrors the cautious approach of its bigger sibling.
Group stage standings
Combined group stage standings — top 8 clubs are on course to qualify for the Round of 16.
Combined Group Stage Standings
| Pos | Club | Pts | GD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Botafogo | 16 | +10 |
| 2 | Atletico Torque | 16 | +7 |
| 3 | Olimpia | 16 | +5 |
| 4 | River Plate | 14 | +6 |
| 5 | Macara | 13 | +4 |
| 6 | Sao Paulo | 12 | +5 |
| 7 | America de Cali | 12 | +2 |
| 8 | Gremio | 11 | +5 |
| 9 | Millonarios | 11 | +2 |
| 10 | RB Bragantino | 10 | +7 |
| 11 | Vasco da Gama | 10 | +4 |
| 12 | Atletico-MG | 10 | +2 |
| 13 | O'Higgins | 10 | +2 |
| 14 | Caracas FC | 10 | 0 |
| 15 | Tigre | 9 | +3 |
| 16 | Deportivo Recoleta | 9 | +1 |
| 17 | Carabobo FC | 9 | +1 |
| 18 | Deportivo Cuenca | 9 | -1 |
| 19 | Cienciano | 9 | -2 |
| 20 | Racing Club | 8 | +2 |
Season Statistics
Botafogo, Atletico Torque and Olimpia are tied at the top of the 2026 Copa Sudamericana group stage standings with 16 points each — three completely different profiles leading South America's second continental competition. River Plate (4th, 14 pts) are the highest-profile club in contention, while Sao Paulo's perfect defensive record (1 goal conceded in 6 games) is the standout defensive performance.
Brazilian clubs are dominating the top of the table: Botafogo, Gremio, Vasco da Gama and Atletico-MG are all in Round of 16 contention. Argentine clubs have struggled — Racing Club (last, 8 pts) and Deportivo Riestra are at risk of group stage elimination, a disappointing showing for one of South America's strongest footballing nations.
What to expect in the knockouts?
Poisson-based projections for the Round of 16 and beyond.
The Copa Sudamericana knockouts follow the same tactical patterns as the Libertadores — home advantage is critical, defensive discipline is prized, and low-scoring outcomes dominate. At 42.0% home wins in the group stage, the Sudamericana is slightly more balanced than the Libertadores (49.6%), suggesting more competitive away performances in this edition.
The BTTS rate of 43.8% is slightly higher than the Libertadores' 42.4%, suggesting marginally more open football in the second-tier competition. Target games involving Brazilian clubs (Botafogo, Gremio, Sao Paulo) for the best combination of quality and attacking intent in the knockout rounds.
Predictions derived from season home/away averages via Poisson model. Fair odds = 1 / probability, no margin.
Quarter-finals15 September 2026
Predictions computed using the Poisson model from home/away goal averages in the 2026 Copa Sudamericana. For illustration only — not financial advice.
How predictions work
MatchPulse uses a Poisson-based model that converts each team's home and away goal-scoring and conceding averages into an expected goals (xG) projection. Win/draw/loss probabilities and market percentages (Over 2.5, BTTS) are derived independently from live 2026 Copa Sudamericana data.
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