Documentation

MatchPulse User Guide

Everything you need to know to get the most out of MatchPulse — from live scores to advanced probability models.

🔴Live Matches 🔔Goal Pressure Alerts ⚡Game State ⏱Late Goals Engine ⚖️Track Record 📊Statistics ★Predictions 🏆League Pages 👥Team Pages ⚽Match Detail Pages 🧮How the Models Work 💎PRO Subscription

🔴

Live Matches

All active matches updated in real-time every 60 seconds, across all monitored leagues worldwide.

✓Live score and elapsed time for every match in progress
✓Status badges: 1H · HT · 2H · ET · P (Penalties)
✓Grouped by league, sorted by elapsed time

💡

Click any match card to open the full match page with predictions, xG, and head-to-head history.

🔔

Goal Pressure AlertsPRO

An automated engine that monitors live statistics every 5 minutes and fires tiered alerts when goal pressure spikes — giving you an edge before the market moves.

How it works

Every 5 minutes the engine reads Shots on Target (SOT) and Corners for each live match. It computes a weighted pressure score combining cumulative pace (30%) and recent burst rate (70%). When pressure crosses a threshold, an alert fires.

Alert Levels

👁 Watch

Elevated activity detected — worth monitoring closely

⚡ Likely

Strong goal pressure — the market may move soon

🔥 Alert

Extreme pressure — goal imminent, act now

How to use

1On your first visit, a consent banner appears in the bottom-right. Click Enable Alerts to grant sound and notification permission.
2Stay on any page of MatchPulse — alert toasts appear site-wide in the bottom-right corner.
3A female voice announces the level out loud: Goal Watch, Goal Likely, or Goal Alert.
4Browser push notifications fire when the tab is hidden — you will not miss alerts even if MatchPulse is minimised.
5Use the 🔔 button on the toast panel to mute or unmute the voice at any time.

Each fixture has a 10-minute cooldown between alerts to avoid repeated alerts for the same event.

💡

The Alert level (🔥) has the highest statistical urgency. Open the match immediately and check live stats and pressure direction.

⚡

Game StatePRO

17 live analytical engines running simultaneously across every monitored match. Each engine targets one specific, narrow scenario — a scoreline, a time window, a live event — and only shows a match while it fits that exact scenario.

This is not one big list of matches. Each engine has its own strict entry rule, so you'll see very few matches on any given engine at any given time — that's by design, not a bug. Fewer, higher-quality picks beat a long list of noise.

🔎 Pre-Live Tools

Scan today's full fixture list before kickoff and rank matches by model confidence. Most are meant to be entered live, at a specific score or odds trigger described on each engine's own page — not backed pre-match.

🧙

Over 2.5 Oracle

Calibrated xG Pre-Match Intel

Pre-selects today's highest-probability Over 2.5 matches using a calibrated expected-goals model. Enter live at 0-0 when odds hit 2.00 for proven edge.

🎯

Over 2.5 Sniper

Spark & Fuel Protocol

Calculates the statistical "fuel" available in a match to produce 3+ goals. Combines HT goal frequency (Spark) with conversion rate (Fuel) into a single Storm Score.

🔭

HT Sniper

The Dry Team Filter

Excludes matches where either team has a persistent history of goalless first halves, then ranks the rest by how reliably both sides find the net before half-time — validated across 134,000+ matches since June 2020.

⏳

Lay The Draw HT

Anti-Draw Signal

Estimates the chance a match will NOT be level at half-time, using each team's HT-draw history shrunk toward the league baseline, plus a goal-timing profile when minute-by-minute data is available.

💥

Lay The Draw FT

Anti-Draw Signal · Full-Time

Estimates the chance a match will NOT end level, using each team's FT-draw history shrunk toward the league baseline. Backtest-gated at 80%+ confidence, the point where the model starts beating the "always lay" baseline.

⚔️

BTTS YES Crossfire

Dixon-Coles Pre-Match Signal

Pre-selects today's highest-probability BTTS matches using a Dixon-Coles attack/defense model with league prior and H2H blend. 64.8% hit rate at Score ≥70, backtested out-of-sample on 425k+ games.

🗡️

BTTS NO Blackout

Weak-League Clean Sheet Signal

Niche BTTS NO engine restricted to Steel/Bronze/Iron tier leagues — empirical clean-sheet model finds real edge where major-tier signals fail. 61.5% hit rate at Score ≥70, out-of-sample.

🐍

The Referee Snakepit

Referee Card & Foul Tendencies

See how the assigned referee compares to the league average on cards, fouls and penalties, plus his VAR intervention rate — goal overturns, penalty reversals and card upgrades — before kickoff.

📡 Live Tools

React to what is actually happening inside a match right now — the scoreline, the minute, a red card, a corner count — and re-rank probabilities in real time as the game develops.

⚡

Late Goals

2H Goal Predictor

Monitors every live match from minute 60, combining the scoreline at that point (tied, ahead by 1, or ahead by 2+), league tier, and each team's recent late-goal form into a single calibrated probability of another goal before full-time.

💀

Final Strike

The Bookend Pattern

Detects the deadliest pattern in football: Early goal → long silence → late killer. The false lull where bookmakers drift the Over line — and lose.

🔒

Under 2.5 Edge

The Lockdown Pattern

Finds matches still locked at 0-0 past minute 20, then reveals each team's own history of staying under 2.5 goals from a cold start — validated across 395,000+ matches since 2020.

⛓️‍💥

Lay The Draw Breaker

Live Anti-Draw Signal · HT-Tied

Reacts to matches already level at half-time and estimates the chance the tie breaks before full-time, using each team's conditional draw-continuation history. Backtest-gated at 70%+ confidence.

⚽

BTTS Watch

Both Teams to Score Monitor

Monitors live matches where one team hasn't scored yet but has a high historical attack rate. Identifies in-play BTTS completion opportunities from minute 45 with optional live SOT boost.

📐

Corner Rush

Live Corner Predictor

Detects live matches where the losing team has a high historical corner attack rate. Uses Poisson conditional on corners already taken to estimate Over 9.5 / 10.5 / 11.5 probability in real time.

🔮

Next Goal

Next Scorer Predictor

Uses historical attack rates and live shot data to calculate which team has the highest probability of scoring the next goal. Updated every minute with a 60/40 historical/live blend.

🔄

HT Reaction

Locker Room Effect

Reveals how teams behave after halftime depending on the score. Identifies PHOENIX teams (comeback kings) and GLASS JAW teams (collapses when leading).

🟥

Red Card Reactor

Numerical Advantage

Monitors live matches where a red card changed the balance. Identifies the advantage team and measures historical impact: how often do teams capitalise when their opponent plays with 10 men?

🧊

Score Freeze

Dead Game Detector

Detects live 2H matches where the score and game pace confirm the goals are done. Conditional Poisson on remaining lambda calculates P(no more goals) in real time.

💡

New to Game State? Start with one engine you understand well, read its own page top to bottom (it explains its exact model and trigger point), and check its results on the Track Record page before trusting it with real stakes.

⏱

Late Goals Engine

Shows all second-half matches from minute 46 onwards with empirical probabilities for 1+ and 2+ more goals before full time — calibrated from 675,000 historical games.

The 46–60 Minute Window

The engine classifies each match based on what happened in the first 15 minutes of the second half. A goal in this window shifts the statistical trajectory significantly compared to a match where the score held.

Match States

Watching

Between minutes 46–60 with no 2H goal yet. Awaiting classification.

Cold

Past minute 60 with no 2H goal scored. Lower base probabilities apply.

Active

A goal was scored between minutes 46–60. Higher base probabilities apply.

Probability Columns

›P(1+) Cold / P(2+) Cold — historical base rates for the Cold state

›P(1+) Active / P(2+) Active — elevated rates for the Active state (goal already scored)

›P(1+) ⏱ — Poisson time-scaling: probability adjusted for the exact minutes remaining

Pressure Signal

When live stats are available, the SOT + Corners signal adjusts probabilities by ±3 to ±6 percentage points. Without live data, the signal is neutral (±0pp) — never penalised for missing data.

League Tier Adjustment

Elite/Premium leagues are more tactical (–2pp to –4pp). Pro/SemiPro/Underground leagues are more open and score more (up to +5pp).

💎 Elite

–4pp

🏅 Premium

–2pp

🥇 Gold

±0pp

🥈 Silver

+2pp

🥉 Pro

+3pp

Filters

Filter by Country (flag tags) and by Tier (coloured dots). Multiple selections within the same group act as OR. The two groups are independent.

💡

The most actionable scenario: minute 60–75 in an Active match with High pressure signal. All three factors align.

⚖️

Track Record

A public, permanent ledger of every pick every Game State engine has ever made — win or loss, published day by day since 1 July 2026. No pick is ever edited or quietly removed after the fact, even the ones that lost.

How to read it

✓The headline Hit Rate at the top blends results from most engines into one number, updated daily as matches finish.
✓Each engine also has its own card below with its own total wins, losses, hit rate, and a 14-day trend sparkline — check this before trusting any single engine.
✓The Daily Ledger at the bottom breaks every result down by day, week, or month, so you can see whether an engine is improving, stable, or slipping.

BTTS NO Blackout is deliberately excluded from the headline blended number, though its own real results are shown on its own card. Its average odds run much higher than every other engine — folding a lower hit-rate, higher-odds market into one blended figure would misrepresent both sides.

⚖️ View Track Record

💡

A hit rate over a single week can swing a lot on a small sample. Look at the 14-day sparkline and the monthly ledger rows before judging whether an engine's edge is real.

📊

Statistics

Pre-match statistical analysis for all upcoming fixtures across 1,000+ leagues. Built from historical results with exponential season weighting.

Available Categories

BTTS · Over/Under 0.5 / 1.5 / 2.5 FT · Over/Under 0.5 / 1.5 HT · Over/Under 0.5 / 1.5 2H · Scored Both Halves · Home Advantage · Away Advantage · Early Goals · Won Both Halves · Draws

Signal Tiers

NUCLEAR

NUCLEAR — ≥80% historical rate with ≥12 games. Highest statistical confidence.

BLITZ

BLITZ — ≥70% rate with ≥8 games. Strong and reliable signal.

TARGET

TARGET — ≥60% rate. Worth including in your analysis.

MONITOR

MONITOR — below 60% threshold. Informational only.

LOW DATA

LOW DATA — fewer than 5 games available. Insufficient history.

💡

Prioritise NUCLEAR signals. A NUCLEAR BTTS team playing a NUCLEAR Over 2.5 team is the strongest combined signal on the platform.

★

PredictionsPRO

Model-based predictions for upcoming matches using Poisson distribution with Dixon-Coles corrections and a 7-model ensemble.

How predictions are built

The ensemble combines home/away goal averages, recent form (last 5 games), full-season averages, head-to-head history, and league-adjusted expected rates. Each model produces an independent estimate; the ensemble uses a weighted geometric mean.

💡

Predictions reflect long-term quality, not short-term form. A team in poor recent form may still show a strong model score if their underlying averages are solid.

🏆

League Pages

Full league data including completed results, upcoming fixtures, live standings, and historical season archives.

Results

All scores from the last completed matchday.

Fixtures

Upcoming fixtures with scheduled kickoff date and time.

Standings

Live league table updated after every completed match.

Team Pages

Complete statistical profile for each club: home vs away performance, goal averages per half, and next fixtures.

✓Home and Away statistics shown separately — teams often perform very differently depending on venue
✓Goals scored and conceded split by 1st half and 2nd half — useful for targeting HT or 2H markets
✓Recent form across the last 10 matches with results and scores

💡

To assess Over 2.5 potential, compare the home team's home goals conceded with the away team's away goals scored.

⚽

Match Detail PagesPRO

The most data-rich view on MatchPulse. Open any match to access predictions, historical context, and live statistics all in one place.

✓Ensemble prediction with individual model breakdown
✓Expected goals (xG) when available from the data source
✓Head-to-head history across the last 10 meetings
✓Both teams' recent form — home games for the home team, away games for the visitor
✓Live shots on target, corners, possession, and cards when the match is in progress
✓Correct score probability distribution across all realistic outcomes

💡

The Match State Panel (live games only) shows weighted historical data: given this exact match state, what happened in similar historical games?

🧮

How the Models Work

Every statistic on MatchPulse is calculated by four independent mathematical models. Each uses different data — the Combined score is their mean.

Basic Poisson

Full-season averages — Goals For and Goals Against across all games played this season.

Dixon-Coles

Poisson corrected with Dixon-Coles — adjusts for score correlation, more accurate in low-scoring matches.

Weighted Form

Recent form only — last games weighted more heavily, older results carry less influence.

League-Normalised

Each team's attack and defence normalised against the league average — removes league strength bias.

∑

Combined

Arithmetic mean of P, DC, W and N. This is the primary score shown in tables.

💡

When all four models point in the same direction, the Combined score is stronger. Divergence between models signals uncertainty — treat it as a lower-confidence signal.

💎

PRO Subscription

Several advanced features require a PRO subscription. The trial period gives you full unrestricted access before you commit.

✓Goal Pressure Alerts — real-time sound, toast notifications, and browser push
✓Game State engines — all 17 live analytical engines across pre-match and live scenarios
✓Full match detail pages — ensemble predictions, xG, historical models
✓All 33 statistical categories with NUCLEAR and BLITZ signal detection

⚡ Upgrade to PRO

💡

The trial period is fully unrestricted — use every PRO feature before your decision to keep your subscription.