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Liga Profesional Argentina 2026: Mid-Season Report

22 rounds played — River Plate, Belgrano and Argentinos JRS are level at the top in one of the tightest Argentine title races in recent memory. At 2.07 goals per game, tactical discipline defines the 2026 campaign.

Round
22 / 38
Goals / Game
2.07
Over 2.5
33.7%
Season
2026
Liga Argentina 2026
Rounds 1–22

What happened so far?

Standings snapshot after 255 matches — three clubs level at the top with half the season complete.

Standings after Round 22

PosClubPtsGD
1River Plate36+12
2Belgrano Cordoba36+8
3Argentinos JRS36+7
4Independ. Rivadavia34+13
5Rosario Central34+6
6Estudiantes L.P.31+11
7Boca Juniors30+12
8Gimnasia L.P.29-1
9Velez Sarsfield28+5
10Talleres Cordoba26+3
11Huracan25+4
12Union Santa Fe24+3
13Independiente24+2
14Racing Club24+2
15Lanus24+1
16San Lorenzo230
17Instituto Cordoba210
18Barracas Central210
19Tigre20+3
20Defensa Y Justicia19-3
21Sarmiento Junin19-7
22Gimnasia M.19-8
23Banfield18-2
24Platense16-5
25Central Cordoba16-10
26Newells Old Boys15-12
27Atletico Tucuman14-5
28Deportivo Riestra11-7
Copa LibertadoresCopa SudamericanaRelegation

Season Statistics

Avg Goals / Game
255 matches played
2.07
Over 2.5 Goals
Under 2.5 dominates — only 34% go over
33.7%
Both Teams Score
BTTS in 45 of 100 games
45.1%
Home Win Rate
Competitive home advantage
41.6%

River Plate, Belgrano Córdoba and Argentinos JRS are all tied on 36 points after 22 rounds — the most remarkable three-way deadlock in Argentine football since 2011. Independiente Rivadavia (4th, 34 pts) and Rosario Central (5th, 34 pts) are just 2 points behind, meaning five clubs are separated by 2 points at the top of the table.

At the bottom, Deportivo Riestra are in crisis — just 11 points from 16 games and a -7 goal difference signals an almost certain relegation. Atlético Tucumán (14 pts) and Newell's Old Boys (15 pts) are in serious danger. The Argentine relegation system (using average points across multiple seasons) complicates the picture, but 2026 form is currently damaging for several clubs.

Rounds 23–38

What to expect for the rest of the season?

Poisson-based projections for the title race, Libertadores spots and the relegation fight.

Argentine football's tactical discipline is reflected in the 33.7% Over 2.5 rate — Under 2.5 is the dominant market outcome in 66% of matches. The Poisson model heavily favours 1-0 and 0-0 results in head-to-head games between the top clubs, making the 1X market and Under combinations the strongest model edge.

River Plate's title push is supported by the best goal difference (+12) among the top three. Boca Juniors (7th, 30 pts) will feel confident of closing the 6-point gap in the second half — historically, Boca have won 4 of the last 8 Argentine titles after being outside the top 3 at the halfway point.

How to read predictions
1X2 — home / draw / away win probabilityOver 0.5 HT — at least 1 goal in first halfOver 2.5 FT — 3 or more total goalsBTTS — both teams score

Predictions derived from season home/away averages via Poisson model. Fair odds = 1 / probability, no margin.

Round 1018 September 2026

Round 1018 Sept · 21:00 UTC
Central Cordoba de SantiagoVSDefensa Y Justicia
Central Cordoba de Santiago
37%
Fair 2.72
Draw
28%
Fair 3.52
Defensa Y Justicia
35%
Fair 2.88
xG 1.17 – 1.13
Over 0.5 HT
64%Fair 1.56
Over 2.5 FT
40%Fair 2.5
BTTS
47%Fair 2.13
Round 1019 Sept · 00:15 UTC
Racing ClubVSSarmiento Junin
Racing Club
45%
Fair 2.24
Draw
27%
Fair 3.77
Sarmiento Junin
29%
Fair 3.47
xG 1.42 – 1.08
Over 0.5 HT
67%Fair 1.49
Over 2.5 FT
46%Fair 2.17
BTTS
50%Fair 2
Round 1019 Sept · 17:30 UTC
Gimnasia L.P.VSBanfield
Gimnasia L.P.
49%
Fair 2.04
Draw
26%
Fair 3.81
Banfield
25%
Fair 4.05
xG 1.48 – 0.97
Over 0.5 HT
66%Fair 1.52
Over 2.5 FT
44%Fair 2.27
BTTS
48%Fair 2.08
Round 1019 Sept · 17:30 UTC
Gimnasia M.VSDeportivo Riestra
Gimnasia M.
53%
Fair 1.9
Draw
30%
Fair 3.34
Deportivo Riestra
17%
Fair 5.77
xG 1.25 – 0.58
Over 0.5 HT
55%Fair 1.82
Over 2.5 FT
28%Fair 3.57
BTTS
32%Fair 3.13
Round 1019 Sept · 19:45 UTC
Union Santa FeVSIndependiente
Union Santa Fe
47%
Fair 2.14
Draw
26%
Fair 3.86
Independiente
27%
Fair 3.66
xG 1.49 – 1.07
Over 0.5 HT
68%Fair 1.47
Over 2.5 FT
47%Fair 2.13
BTTS
51%Fair 1.96
Round 1019 Sept · 22:00 UTC
River PlateVSHuracan
River Plate
43%
Fair 2.32
Draw
29%
Fair 3.5
Huracan
28%
Fair 3.52
xG 1.26 – 0.96
Over 0.5 HT
62%Fair 1.61
Over 2.5 FT
38%Fair 2.63
BTTS
44%Fair 2.27
Round 1020 Sept · 00:15 UTC
Instituto CordobaVSTalleres Cordoba
Instituto Cordoba
43%
Fair 2.34
Draw
29%
Fair 3.41
Talleres Cordoba
28%
Fair 3.58
xG 1.21 – 0.92
Over 0.5 HT
61%Fair 1.64
Over 2.5 FT
36%Fair 2.78
BTTS
42%Fair 2.38
Round 1020 Sept · 17:45 UTC
San LorenzoVSBoca Juniors
San Lorenzo
32%
Fair 3.15
Draw
27%
Fair 3.66
Boca Juniors
41%
Fair 2.44
xG 1.12 – 1.31
Over 0.5 HT
66%Fair 1.52
Over 2.5 FT
44%Fair 2.27
BTTS
49%Fair 2.04
Round 1020 Sept · 20:00 UTC
PlatenseVSNewells Old Boys
Platense
38%
Fair 2.63
Draw
28%
Fair 3.56
Newells Old Boys
34%
Fair 2.95
xG 1.21 – 1.13
Over 0.5 HT
64%Fair 1.56
Over 2.5 FT
41%Fair 2.44
BTTS
47%Fair 2.13
Round 1020 Sept · 20:00 UTC
Rosario CentralVSArgentinos JRS
Rosario Central
43%
Fair 2.32
Draw
29%
Fair 3.51
Argentinos JRS
28%
Fair 3.53
xG 1.26 – 0.96
Over 0.5 HT
62%Fair 1.61
Over 2.5 FT
38%Fair 2.63
BTTS
44%Fair 2.27
Round 1020 Sept · 22:15 UTC
Belgrano CordobaVSEstudiantes de Rio Cuarto
Belgrano Cordoba
64%
Fair 1.57
Draw
24%
Fair 4.11
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
12%
Fair 8.42
xG 1.6 – 0.52
Over 0.5 HT
61%Fair 1.64
Over 2.5 FT
36%Fair 2.78
BTTS
33%Fair 3.03
Round 1021 Sept · 00:30 UTC
Velez SarsfieldVSTigre
Velez Sarsfield
39%
Fair 2.59
Draw
34%
Fair 2.98
Tigre
28%
Fair 3.58
xG 0.96 – 0.77
Over 0.5 HT
53%Fair 1.89
Over 2.5 FT
25%Fair 4
BTTS
33%Fair 3.03
Round 1021 Sept · 17:30 UTC
AldosiviVSAtletico Tucuman
Aldosivi
34%
Fair 2.93
Draw
32%
Fair 3.16
Atletico Tucuman
34%
Fair 2.93
xG 0.96 – 0.96
Over 0.5 HT
57%Fair 1.75
Over 2.5 FT
30%Fair 3.33
BTTS
38%Fair 2.63
Round 1021 Sept · 22:00 UTC
Barracas CentralVSIndepend. Rivadavia
Barracas Central
34%
Fair 2.93
Draw
32%
Fair 3.16
Independ. Rivadavia
34%
Fair 2.93
xG 0.96 – 0.96
Over 0.5 HT
57%Fair 1.75
Over 2.5 FT
30%Fair 3.33
BTTS
38%Fair 2.63
Round 1022 Sept · 00:15 UTC
LanusVSEstudiantes L.P.
Lanus
37%
Fair 2.71
Draw
35%
Fair 2.84
Estudiantes L.P.
28%
Fair 3.59
xG 0.88 – 0.72
Over 0.5 HT
51%Fair 1.96
Over 2.5 FT
21%Fair 4.76
BTTS
30%Fair 3.33

Round 1102 October 2026

Round 1102 Oct · 22:15 UTC
IndependienteVSInstituto Cordoba
Independiente
41%
Fair 2.44
Draw
30%
Fair 3.35
Instituto Cordoba
29%
Fair 3.43
xG 1.15 – 0.92
Over 0.5 HT
60%Fair 1.67
Over 2.5 FT
34%Fair 2.94
BTTS
41%Fair 2.44
Round 1103 Oct · 00:30 UTC
Independ. RivadaviaVSGimnasia L.P.
Independ. Rivadavia
52%
Fair 1.92
Draw
23%
Fair 4.28
Gimnasia L.P.
24%
Fair 4.08
xG 1.77 – 1.14
Over 0.5 HT
72%Fair 1.39
Over 2.5 FT
56%Fair 1.79
BTTS
57%Fair 1.75
Round 1103 Oct · 17:45 UTC
Defensa Y JusticiaVSSan Lorenzo
Defensa Y Justicia
37%
Fair 2.74
Draw
35%
Fair 2.82
San Lorenzo
28%
Fair 3.57
xG 0.86 – 0.71
Over 0.5 HT
50%Fair 2
Over 2.5 FT
21%Fair 4.76
BTTS
30%Fair 3.33
Round 1103 Oct · 20:00 UTC
Atletico TucumanVSBarracas Central
Atletico Tucuman
33%
Fair 3.05
Draw
37%
Fair 2.72
Barracas Central
31%
Fair 3.28
xG 0.77 – 0.73
Over 0.5 HT
48%Fair 2.08
Over 2.5 FT
19%Fair 5.26
BTTS
28%Fair 3.57
Round 1103 Oct · 20:00 UTC
Newells Old BoysVSLanus
Newells Old Boys
35%
Fair 2.88
Draw
29%
Fair 3.5
Lanus
37%
Fair 2.73
xG 1.12 – 1.15
Over 0.5 HT
63%Fair 1.59
Over 2.5 FT
40%Fair 2.5
BTTS
46%Fair 2.17
Round 1103 Oct · 22:15 UTC
Argentinos JRSVSTigre
Argentinos JRS
46%
Fair 2.17
Draw
31%
Fair 3.21
Tigre
23%
Fair 4.4
xG 1.15 – 0.71
Over 0.5 HT
56%Fair 1.79
Over 2.5 FT
28%Fair 3.57
BTTS
35%Fair 2.86
Round 1104 Oct · 00:30 UTC
HuracanVSAldosivi
Huracan
56%
Fair 1.8
Draw
26%
Fair 3.82
Aldosivi
18%
Fair 5.5
xG 1.5 – 0.73
Over 0.5 HT
63%Fair 1.59
Over 2.5 FT
39%Fair 2.56
BTTS
40%Fair 2.5
Round 1104 Oct · 17:45 UTC
Sarmiento JuninVSRiver Plate
Sarmiento Junin
37%
Fair 2.67
Draw
31%
Fair 3.28
River Plate
32%
Fair 3.12
xG 1.07 – 0.96
Over 0.5 HT
59%Fair 1.69
Over 2.5 FT
33%Fair 3.03
BTTS
41%Fair 2.44
Round 1104 Oct · 20:00 UTC
Talleres CordobaVSBelgrano Cordoba
Talleres Cordoba
32%
Fair 3.15
Draw
31%
Fair 3.23
Belgrano Cordoba
37%
Fair 2.68
xG 0.94 – 1.04
Over 0.5 HT
58%Fair 1.72
Over 2.5 FT
32%Fair 3.13
BTTS
39%Fair 2.56
Round 1104 Oct · 22:15 UTC
Boca JuniorsVSUnion Santa Fe
Boca Juniors
48%
Fair 2.08
Draw
26%
Fair 3.82
Union Santa Fe
26%
Fair 3.89
xG 1.48 – 1.01
Over 0.5 HT
67%Fair 1.49
Over 2.5 FT
45%Fair 2.22
BTTS
49%Fair 2.04
Round 1105 Oct · 00:30 UTC
Estudiantes de Rio CuartoVSRacing Club
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
27%
Fair 3.72
Draw
33%
Fair 3.03
Racing Club
40%
Fair 2.49
xG 0.76 – 1
Over 0.5 HT
54%Fair 1.85
Over 2.5 FT
26%Fair 3.85
BTTS
34%Fair 2.94
Round 1105 Oct · 19:45 UTC
Deportivo RiestraVSCentral Cordoba de Santiago
Deportivo Riestra
50%
Fair 2.01
Draw
32%
Fair 3.08
Central Cordoba de Santiago
18%
Fair 5.63
xG 1.12 – 0.54
Over 0.5 HT
52%Fair 1.92
Over 2.5 FT
23%Fair 4.35
BTTS
28%Fair 3.57
Round 1105 Oct · 22:00 UTC
Estudiantes L.P.VSGimnasia M.
Estudiantes L.P.
56%
Fair 1.79
Draw
26%
Fair 3.79
Gimnasia M.
18%
Fair 5.61
xG 1.48 – 0.71
Over 0.5 HT
62%Fair 1.61
Over 2.5 FT
38%Fair 2.63
BTTS
39%Fair 2.56
Round 1105 Oct · 22:00 UTC
Velez SarsfieldVSPlatense
Velez Sarsfield
41%
Fair 2.45
Draw
33%
Fair 3.01
Platense
26%
Fair 3.85
xG 1 – 0.73
Over 0.5 HT
53%Fair 1.89
Over 2.5 FT
25%Fair 4
BTTS
33%Fair 3.03
Round 1106 Oct · 00:15 UTC
BanfieldVSRosario Central
Banfield
36%
Fair 2.76
Draw
28%
Fair 3.54
Rosario Central
36%
Fair 2.81
xG 1.17 – 1.15
Over 0.5 HT
64%Fair 1.56
Over 2.5 FT
41%Fair 2.44
BTTS
47%Fair 2.13

Round 1211 October 2026

Round 1211 Oct · 20:00 UTC
Union Santa FeVSDefensa Y Justicia
Union Santa Fe
50%
Fair 2
Draw
25%
Fair 3.98
Defensa Y Justicia
25%
Fair 4.01
xG 1.58 – 1.04
Over 0.5 HT
68%Fair 1.47
Over 2.5 FT
49%Fair 2.04
BTTS
51%Fair 1.96
Round 1211 Oct · 20:00 UTC
River PlateVSEstudiantes de Rio Cuarto
River Plate
63%
Fair 1.6
Draw
23%
Fair 4.29
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
14%
Fair 7.08
xG 1.71 – 0.67
Over 0.5 HT
65%Fair 1.54
Over 2.5 FT
42%Fair 2.38
BTTS
40%Fair 2.5
Round 1211 Oct · 20:00 UTC
Racing ClubVSBelgrano Cordoba
Racing Club
30%
Fair 3.38
Draw
31%
Fair 3.25
Belgrano Cordoba
40%
Fair 2.52
xG 0.9 – 1.09
Over 0.5 HT
58%Fair 1.72
Over 2.5 FT
32%Fair 3.13
BTTS
39%Fair 2.56
Round 1211 Oct · 20:00 UTC
PlatenseVSArgentinos JRS
Platense
29%
Fair 3.49
Draw
30%
Fair 3.36
Argentinos JRS
42%
Fair 2.41
xG 0.92 – 1.17
Over 0.5 HT
60%Fair 1.67
Over 2.5 FT
35%Fair 2.86
BTTS
41%Fair 2.44
Round 1211 Oct · 20:00 UTC
LanusVSVelez Sarsfield
Lanus
33%
Fair 3.07
Draw
31%
Fair 3.24
Velez Sarsfield
37%
Fair 2.73
xG 0.96 – 1.04
Over 0.5 HT
59%Fair 1.69
Over 2.5 FT
32%Fair 3.13
BTTS
40%Fair 2.5
Round 1211 Oct · 20:00 UTC
Instituto CordobaVSBoca Juniors
Instituto Cordoba
39%
Fair 2.58
Draw
27%
Fair 3.68
Boca Juniors
34%
Fair 2.94
xG 1.29 – 1.19
Over 0.5 HT
66%Fair 1.52
Over 2.5 FT
45%Fair 2.22
BTTS
50%Fair 2
Round 1211 Oct · 20:00 UTC
Gimnasia M.VSNewells Old Boys
Gimnasia M.
53%
Fair 1.89
Draw
25%
Fair 3.97
Newells Old Boys
22%
Fair 4.58
xG 1.58 – 0.92
Over 0.5 HT
67%Fair 1.49
Over 2.5 FT
46%Fair 2.17
BTTS
48%Fair 2.08
Round 1211 Oct · 20:00 UTC
Gimnasia L.P.VSAtletico Tucuman
Gimnasia L.P.
44%
Fair 2.3
Draw
27%
Fair 3.72
Atletico Tucuman
30%
Fair 3.38
xG 1.38 – 1.08
Over 0.5 HT
66%Fair 1.52
Over 2.5 FT
45%Fair 2.22
BTTS
49%Fair 2.04
Round 1211 Oct · 20:00 UTC
Barracas CentralVSHuracan
Barracas Central
34%
Fair 2.96
Draw
32%
Fair 3.09
Huracan
34%
Fair 2.96
xG 0.92 – 0.92
Over 0.5 HT
55%Fair 1.82
Over 2.5 FT
28%Fair 3.57
BTTS
36%Fair 2.78
Round 1211 Oct · 20:00 UTC
AldosiviVSSarmiento Junin
Aldosivi
44%
Fair 2.27
Draw
29%
Fair 3.47
Sarmiento Junin
27%
Fair 3.68
xG 1.25 – 0.92
Over 0.5 HT
62%Fair 1.61
Over 2.5 FT
37%Fair 2.7
BTTS
43%Fair 2.33
Round 1211 Oct · 20:00 UTC
TigreVSBanfield
Tigre
48%
Fair 2.07
Draw
29%
Fair 3.42
Banfield
23%
Fair 4.43
xG 1.27 – 0.77
Over 0.5 HT
59%Fair 1.69
Over 2.5 FT
33%Fair 3.03
BTTS
39%Fair 2.56
Round 1211 Oct · 20:00 UTC
Talleres CordobaVSIndependiente
Talleres Cordoba
35%
Fair 2.85
Draw
28%
Fair 3.57
Independiente
37%
Fair 2.71
xG 1.15 – 1.19
Over 0.5 HT
64%Fair 1.56
Over 2.5 FT
42%Fair 2.38
BTTS
48%Fair 2.08
Round 1211 Oct · 20:00 UTC
San LorenzoVSDeportivo Riestra
San Lorenzo
45%
Fair 2.21
Draw
32%
Fair 3.09
Deportivo Riestra
22%
Fair 4.46
xG 1.08 – 0.67
Over 0.5 HT
54%Fair 1.85
Over 2.5 FT
26%Fair 3.85
BTTS
32%Fair 3.13
Round 1211 Oct · 20:00 UTC
Rosario CentralVSIndepend. Rivadavia
Rosario Central
41%
Fair 2.45
Draw
29%
Fair 3.41
Independ. Rivadavia
30%
Fair 3.35
xG 1.18 – 0.96
Over 0.5 HT
61%Fair 1.64
Over 2.5 FT
36%Fair 2.78
BTTS
43%Fair 2.33
Round 1211 Oct · 20:00 UTC
Central Cordoba de SantiagoVSEstudiantes L.P.
Central Cordoba de Santiago
32%
Fair 3.14
Draw
34%
Fair 2.95
Estudiantes L.P.
34%
Fair 2.92
xG 0.83 – 0.88
Over 0.5 HT
53%Fair 1.89
Over 2.5 FT
24%Fair 4.17
BTTS
33%Fair 3.03

Predictions computed using the Poisson model from home/away goal averages in the 2026 Liga Profesional Argentina season. For illustration only — not financial advice.

How predictions work

MatchPulse uses a Poisson-based model that converts each team's home and away goal-scoring and conceding averages into an expected goals (xG) projection. Win/draw/loss probabilities and market percentages (Over 2.5, BTTS) are derived independently from live 2026 Liga Argentina data.

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