Coritiba vs Gremio — Serie A
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Coritiba and Gremio meet in the Serie A 2026 season on 25 October 2026. Coritiba have recorded 14 wins from 39 matches this season (36% win rate), averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 51% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 46%; and clean sheets in 28% of games. Gremio have won 39% of their 54 matches, with 1.39 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 50%, Over 2.5 at 44%, and clean sheets at 33%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.44 for Coritiba and 1.03 for Gremio. The models give Coritiba a 49% win probability, with a draw at 27% and an Gremio win at 24%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 45% and BTTS at 49%.
Season Statistics
Coritiba—
Gremio8º
Position
16º
1.41
PPG
1.08
37%
Win %
27%
1.37
Goals / game
1.08
1.41
Conceded / game
1.35
51%
BTTS %
50%
28%
Clean sheet %
33%
46%
Over 2.5 %
44%
3.7
Avg corners
4.1
11.4
Avg shots
12.2
3.4
Avg shots on target
4.0
1.6
Avg yellow cards
2.6
11.1
Avg fouls
12.5
41.6%
Avg possession
51.9%
Home vs Away
Coritiba
Home (14)
—
Gremio
Away (13)
1.36
PPG
0.31
36%
Win %
0%
1.36
Goals / game
0.46
1.36
Conceded / game
1.46
60%
BTTS %
46%
15%
Clean sheet %
31%
50%
Over 2.5 %
42%
3.7
Avg corners
4.1
11.4
Avg shots
12.2
3.4
Avg shots on target
4.0
1.6
Avg yellow cards
2.6
41.6%
Avg possession
51.9%
Goals Scored
| Coritiba | Home | Away | Gremio | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 74% | 75% | 74% | 74% | 86% | 62% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 44% | 50% | 37% | 37% | 46% | 27% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 13% | 10% | 16% | 19% | 25% | 12% |
| Failed To Score | 26% | 25% | 26% | 26% | 14% | 38% |
Goals Conceded
| Coritiba | Home | Away | Gremio | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 72% | 85% | 58% | 67% | 64% | 69% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 41% | 45% | 37% | 28% | 21% | 35% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 15% | 15% | 16% | 9% | 7% | 12% |
| Clean Sheets | 28% | 15% | 42% | 33% | 36% | 31% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Coritiba | Gremio | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 95% | 91% |
| Over 1.5 | 69% | 72% |
| Over 2.5 | 46% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 20% |
| Over 4.5 | 15% | 9% |
| BTTS | 51% | 50% |
| BTTS & Win | 13% | 15% |
| BTTS & Draw | 28% | 19% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 41% | 33% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 5% | 11% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Coritiba | Gremio | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 26% | 28% |
| Draw 1st Half | 44% | 48% |
| Loss 1st Half | 31% | 24% |
| Scored 1st Half | 41% | 43% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 38% | 39% |
| Win 2nd Half | 36% | 43% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 36% | 30% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 28% | 28% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 64% | 56% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 59% | 44% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 64% | 63% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 26% | 28% |
Recent Venue Form
Coritiba (H)D
Atletico Paranaense3–3
Atletico Paranaense3–3L
Mirassol1–2
Mirassol1–2W
Corinthians2–1
Corinthians2–1W
Chapecoense-sc2–1
Chapecoense-sc2–1L
Cruzeiro0–1
Cruzeiro0–1L
Palmeiras1–3
Palmeiras1–3Gremio (A)L
Vitoria0–1
Vitoria0–1D
Internacional0–0
Internacional0–0L
RB Bragantino0–1
RB Bragantino0–1L
Atletico-MG0–3
Atletico-MG0–3DMirassol1–1
Mirassol1–1L
Bolívar2–3
Bolívar2–3Number of Corners
9.9
Corners / Match
28 games
League Avg
10.1
264 games
9.2
Corners / Match
40 games
| Match Corners | Coritiba | Gremio | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 79% | 75% | 84% |
| Over 7 | 71% | 70% | 76% |
| Over 8 | 71% | 65% | 67% |
| Over 9 | 64% | 48% | 55% |
| Over 10 | 46% | 33% | 40% |
| Over 11 | 25% | 28% | 31% |
| Over 12 | 18% | 15% | 23% |
| Over 13 | 11% | 8% | 17% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Coritiba | Gremio |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 3.7 | 4.1 |
| Corners Against / Match | 6.2 | 5.0 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 79% | 68% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 54% | 53% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 21% | 38% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 89% | 80% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 79% | 65% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 71% | 60% |
Head to Head · 19 matches
7
Coritiba
37%
4
Draws
21%
8
Gremio
42%
74%
Over 1.5
14/19
37%
Over 2.5
7/19
21%
Over 3.5
4/19
37%
BTTS
7/19
26/04/26Coritiba
Gremio
1–0Coritiba01/11/23Gremio
Coritiba
1–2Gremio25/06/23Coritiba
Gremio
5–1Coritiba31/01/21Gremio
Coritiba
1–1Gremio07/10/20Coritiba
Gremio
2–1Coritiba15/10/17Gremio
Coritiba
0–1Gremio23/06/17Coritiba
Gremio
2–0Coritiba08/09/16Gremio
Coritiba
4–0Gremio29/05/16Coritiba
Gremio
2–0Coritiba30/08/15Coritiba
Gremio
0–0Coritiba16/05/15Gremio
Coritiba
2–0Gremio25/10/14Gremio
Coritiba
1–1Gremio27/07/14Coritiba
Gremio
2–3Coritiba27/10/13Gremio
Coritiba
4–0Gremio09/08/13Coritiba
Gremio
0–1Coritiba20/10/12Coritiba
Gremio
0–0Coritiba28/07/12Gremio
Coritiba
2–1Gremio08/10/11Gremio
Coritiba
2–0Gremio10/07/11Coritiba
Gremio
2–0Coritiba| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | +31 | 57 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 27 | 16 | 8 | 3 | +26 | 56 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | +10 | 46 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | +6 | 45 |
| 5 |  Bahia | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | +8 | 43 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 42 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | +4 | 39 |
| 8 | Coritiba | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 38 |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | +3 | 36 |
| 10 |  Santos | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 35 |
| 11 |  Sao Paulo | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | +1 | 33 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | -12 | 33 |
| 13 | Corinthians | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 32 |
| 14 |  Botafogo | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | -3 | 32 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | -11 | 29 |
| 16 | Gremio | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | -7 | 28 |
| 17 |  Vasco DA Gama | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | -12 | 28 |
| 18 | Internacional | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | -5 | 28 |
| 19 |  Remo | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | -13 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 26 | 3 | 8 | 15 | -24 | 17 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | -22 | 10 |
Team Insights
Coritiba- ●Coritiba failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 7 matches.
- ●Coritiba have scored in each of their last 6 matches.
- ●Coritiba have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 matches.
- ●Coritiba failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 8 home matches.
- ●Coritiba have scored in each of their last 4 home matches.
- ●Coritiba have been undefeated in their last 3 away matches.
- ●Coritiba failed to keep a clean sheet in 12 of their 14 home matches.
- ●Coritiba have won 5 of their 13 away matches.
Gremio- ●Gremio failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 12 matches.
- ●Gremio failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 7 home matches.
- ●Gremio have scored in each of their last 6 home matches.
- ●Gremio have lost their last 4 away matches.
- ●Gremio failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 away matches.
- ●Gremio failed to keep a clean sheet in 10 of their 13 home matches.
- ●Gremio failed to keep a clean sheet in 11 of their 13 away matches.
- ●Gremio have lost 9 of their 13 away matches.
- ●79% of Gremio's goals have been scored at home.
- ●86% of Gremio's points have been earned at home.
Season Schedule
CoritibaDHAtletico Paranaense3–3
Atletico Paranaense3–3LHMirassol1–2
Mirassol1–2WARemo3–2
Remo3–2WHCorinthians2–1
Corinthians2–1DASao Paulo1–1
Sao Paulo1–1WHChapecoense-sc2–1
Chapecoense-sc2–1–AVasco DA Gama19/09
Vasco DA Gama19/09–AFluminense09/10
Fluminense09/10–HBotafogo11/10
Botafogo11/10GremioLHVasco DA Gama1–2
Vasco DA Gama1–2LAVitoria0–1
Vitoria0–1WHChapecoense-sc3–1
Chapecoense-sc3–1LARB Bragantino0–1
RB Bragantino0–1LAAtletico-MG0–3
Atletico-MG0–3WHSao Paulo2–1
Sao Paulo2–1–ABotafogo16/09
Botafogo16/09–HPalmeiras20/09
Palmeiras20/09–ARemo07/10
Remo07/10Top Scorers
CoritibaPedro Rocha11 ⚽
Breno Lopes8 ⚽
J. Lavega5 ⚽
Tiago Coser4 ⚽
Rodrigo Moledo3 ⚽
Lucas Ronier3 ⚽
GremioCarlos Vinicius21 ⚽
F. Amuzu8 ⚽
C. Pavon5 ⚽
M. Braithwaite4 ⚽
Edenilson3 ⚽
Gabriel Mec3 ⚽
Cards Given
CoritibaThiago Santos9 🟨
Vini Paulista6 🟨
Tiago Cóser4 🟨
Lucas Ronier4 🟨
Breno Lopes4 🟨
Wallisson Luiz4 🟨
GremioWalter Kannemann11 🟨
Viery9 🟨
Gustavo Martins7 🟨
Wagner Leonardo7 🟨
Carlos Vinicius6 🟨
C. Pavon6 🟨