Flamengo vs Atletico-MG — Serie A
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Flamengo and Atletico-MG meet in the Serie A 2026 season on 26 October 2026. Flamengo have recorded 34 wins from 58 matches this season (59% win rate), averaging 1.95 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 52% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 57%; and clean sheets in 38% of games. Atletico-MG have won 42% of their 57 matches, with 1.40 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 56%, Over 2.5 at 46%, and clean sheets at 25%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.73 for Flamengo and 0.98 for Atletico-MG. The models give Flamengo a 57% win probability, with a draw at 25% and an Atletico-MG win at 18%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 50% and BTTS at 51%.
Season Statistics
Flamengo—
Atletico-MG1º
Position
7º
2.13
PPG
1.57
63%
Win %
43%
1.93
Goals / game
1.37
0.83
Conceded / game
1.17
52%
BTTS %
56%
38%
Clean sheet %
25%
57%
Over 2.5 %
46%
5.4
Avg corners
5.0
15.5
Avg shots
13.2
5.8
Avg shots on target
4.7
1.9
Avg yellow cards
1.8
11.9
Avg fouls
11.6
57.7%
Avg possession
51.1%
Home vs Away
Flamengo
Home (15)
—
Atletico-MG
Away (15)
2.40
PPG
1.00
73%
Win %
27%
1.93
Goals / game
1.00
0.67
Conceded / game
1.20
50%
BTTS %
45%
43%
Clean sheet %
21%
57%
Over 2.5 %
38%
5.4
Avg corners
5.0
15.5
Avg shots
13.2
5.8
Avg shots on target
4.7
1.9
Avg yellow cards
1.8
57.7%
Avg possession
51.1%
Goals Scored
| Flamengo | Home | Away | Atletico-MG | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 88% | 93% | 82% | 74% | 89% | 59% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 57% | 70% | 43% | 40% | 54% | 28% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 24% | 30% | 18% | 16% | 18% | 14% |
| Failed To Score | 12% | 7% | 18% | 26% | 11% | 41% |
Goals Conceded
| Flamengo | Home | Away | Atletico-MG | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 62% | 57% | 68% | 75% | 71% | 79% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 24% | 20% | 29% | 28% | 18% | 38% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 7% | 7% | 7% | 4% | 7% | 0% |
| Clean Sheets | 38% | 43% | 32% | 25% | 29% | 21% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Flamengo | Atletico-MG | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 98% | 93% |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 70% |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 25% |
| Over 4.5 | 10% | 5% |
| BTTS | 52% | 56% |
| BTTS & Win | 22% | 25% |
| BTTS & Draw | 21% | 26% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 36% | 40% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 21% | 5% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Flamengo | Atletico-MG | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 41% | 33% |
| Draw 1st Half | 41% | 40% |
| Loss 1st Half | 17% | 26% |
| Scored 1st Half | 52% | 44% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 31% | 39% |
| Win 2nd Half | 53% | 32% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 22% | 42% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 24% | 26% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 74% | 54% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 43% | 54% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 67% | 68% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 29% | 25% |
Recent Venue Form
Flamengo (H)W
Fluminense1–0
Fluminense1–0W
RB Bragantino2–1
RB Bragantino2–1D
Independiente del Valle1–1
Independiente del Valle1–1W
Corinthians2–1
Corinthians2–1W
Mirassol2–0
Mirassol2–0W
Botafogo3–0
Botafogo3–0Atletico-MG (A)D
Atletico Paranaense2–2
Atletico Paranaense2–2L
Santos0–2
Santos0–2L
Sao Paulo0–2
Sao Paulo0–2D
Cruzeiro1–1
Cruzeiro1–1D
Internacional0–0
Internacional0–0WRB Bragantino1–0
RB Bragantino1–0Number of Corners
9.3
Corners / Match
51 games
League Avg
10.3
296 games
10.1
Corners / Match
45 games
| Match Corners | Flamengo | Atletico-MG | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 82% | 84% | 84% |
| Over 7 | 71% | 71% | 76% |
| Over 8 | 57% | 67% | 68% |
| Over 9 | 43% | 56% | 56% |
| Over 10 | 31% | 40% | 42% |
| Over 11 | 22% | 33% | 33% |
| Over 12 | 12% | 27% | 25% |
| Over 13 | 8% | 22% | 19% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Flamengo | Atletico-MG |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 5.4 | 5.0 |
| Corners Against / Match | 3.9 | 5.1 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 80% | 78% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 67% | 67% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 53% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 61% | 76% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 53% | 62% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 43% | 56% |
Head to Head · 40 matches
18
Flamengo
45%
8
Draws
20%
14
Atletico-MG
35%
73%
Over 1.5
29/40
50%
Over 2.5
20/40
28%
Over 3.5
11/40
48%
BTTS
19/40
26/04/26Flamengo
Atletico-MG
0–4Flamengo26/11/25Flamengo
Atletico-MG
1–1Flamengo06/08/25Flamengo
Atletico-MG
0–1Flamengo01/08/25Atletico-MG
Flamengo
0–1Atletico-MG27/07/25Atletico-MG
Flamengo
1–0Atletico-MG13/11/24Atletico-MG
Flamengo
0–0Atletico-MG10/11/24Flamengo
Atletico-MG
0–1Flamengo03/11/24Atletico-MG
Flamengo
3–1Atletico-MG04/07/24Flamengo
Atletico-MG
2–4Flamengo29/11/23Atletico-MG
Flamengo
0–3Atletico-MG30/07/23Flamengo
Atletico-MG
1–2Flamengo15/10/22Atletico-MG
Flamengo
1–0Atletico-MG14/07/22Atletico-MG
Flamengo
2–0Atletico-MG23/06/22Flamengo
Atletico-MG
2–1Flamengo19/06/22Flamengo
Atletico-MG
2–0Flamengo20/02/22Flamengo
Atletico-MG
2–2Flamengo30/10/21Atletico-MG
Flamengo
1–0Atletico-MG07/07/21Flamengo
Atletico-MG
2–1Flamengo08/11/20Flamengo
Atletico-MG
4–0Flamengo09/08/20Atletico-MG
Flamengo
0–1Atletico-MG| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | +33 | 64 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | +30 | 63 |
| 3 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +11 | 51 |
| 4 | Atletico Paranaense | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | +11 | 50 |
| 5 |  Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | +8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | +4 | 48 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +1 | 42 |
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 10 |  Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 11 | RB Bragantino | 29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | +1 | 37 |
| 12 |  Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 |  Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 |  Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 28 | 3 | 9 | 16 | -28 | 18 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | -22 | 10 |
Team Insights
Flamengo- ●Flamengo have been undefeated in their last 7 matches.
- ●Flamengo have scored in each of their last 14 matches.
- ●Flamengo have won their last 6 home matches.
- ●Flamengo have scored in each of their last 8 home matches.
- ●Flamengo have scored in each of their last 10 away matches.
- ●Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 8 of their 15 home matches.
- ●Flamengo have scored in 14 of their 15 home matches.
- ●Flamengo have won 8 of their 15 away matches.
- ●Flamengo have scored in 14 of their 15 away matches.
Atletico-MG- ●Atletico-MG have been undefeated in their last 5 matches.
- ●Atletico-MG have scored in each of their last 5 matches.
- ●Atletico-MG have won their last 2 home matches.
- ●Atletico-MG have scored in each of their last 9 home matches.
- ●Atletico-MG failed to keep a clean sheet in 11 of their 15 home matches.
- ●Atletico-MG have scored in 14 of their 15 home matches.
- ●Atletico-MG failed to keep a clean sheet in 12 of their 15 away matches.
- ●63% of Atletico-MG's goals have been scored at home.
Season Schedule
FlamengoWHFluminense1–0
Fluminense1–0DASantos2–2
Santos2–2WHRB Bragantino2–1
RB Bragantino2–1WHCorinthians2–1
Corinthians2–1WARemo1–0
Remo1–0WHMirassol2–0
Mirassol2–0–ABahia18/10
Bahia18/10–HAtletico-MG26/10
Atletico-MG26/10–AVasco DA Gama29/10
Vasco DA Gama29/10Atletico-MGWHSantos2–1
Santos2–1DAAtletico Paranaense2–2
Atletico Paranaense2–2WHRB Bragantino1–0
RB Bragantino1–0DHChapecoense-sc1–1
Chapecoense-sc1–1WHFluminense3–1
Fluminense3–1LASao Paulo0–2
Sao Paulo0–2–HCoritiba17/10
Coritiba17/10–AFlamengo26/10
Flamengo26/10–HCruzeiro29/10
Cruzeiro29/10Top Scorers
FlamengoPedro26 ⚽
Samuel Lino14 ⚽
Bruno Henrique11 ⚽
Lucas Paqueta9 ⚽
G. de Arrascaeta8 ⚽
J. Carrascal5 ⚽
Atletico-MGReinier6 ⚽
Victor Hugo6 ⚽
Cuello6 ⚽
Bernard6 ⚽
Hulk5 ⚽
R. Lodi5 ⚽
Cards Given
FlamengoErick Pulgar10 🟨
Jorginho9 🟨
Evertton Araujo7 🟨
Bruno Henrique6 🟨
Alex Sandro5 🟨
Danilo4 🟨
Atletico-MGLyanco7 🟨
Ruan Tressoldi7 🟨
Alan Franco6 🟨
Ruan6 🟨
Natanael5 🟨
A. Franco5 🟨