Bahia vs Sao Paulo — Serie A
← Back
🔒 Pro Feature
Unlock all Match Predictions
Full mathematical models, value detection and advanced filters across every league.
from€8.99/mo
billed annually · cancel anytime
Bahia and Sao Paulo meet in the Serie A 2026 season on 29 October 2026. Bahia have recorded 24 wins from 47 matches this season (51% win rate), averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 66% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 60%; and clean sheets in 26% of games. Sao Paulo have won 40% of their 52 matches, with 1.19 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 56%, Over 2.5 at 40%, and clean sheets at 27%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.76 for Bahia and 0.86 for Sao Paulo. The models give Bahia a 59% win probability, with a draw at 24% and an Sao Paulo win at 18%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 48% and BTTS at 47%.
Season Statistics
Bahia—
Sao Paulo5º
Position
10º
1.63
PPG
1.30
43%
Win %
37%
1.47
Goals / game
1.17
1.20
Conceded / game
1.17
66%
BTTS %
56%
26%
Clean sheet %
27%
60%
Over 2.5 %
40%
5.7
Avg corners
6.4
13.6
Avg shots
12.8
4.7
Avg shots on target
3.9
2.4
Avg yellow cards
2.1
13.4
Avg fouls
13.2
56.2%
Avg possession
54.4%
Home vs Away
Bahia
Home (15)
—
Sao Paulo
Away (15)
1.80
PPG
0.60
47%
Win %
13%
1.53
Goals / game
0.73
0.93
Conceded / game
1.47
76%
BTTS %
56%
24%
Clean sheet %
15%
68%
Over 2.5 %
41%
5.7
Avg corners
6.4
13.6
Avg shots
12.8
4.7
Avg shots on target
3.9
2.4
Avg yellow cards
2.1
56.2%
Avg possession
54.4%
Goals Scored
| Bahia | Home | Away | Sao Paulo | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 87% | 96% | 77% | 79% | 96% | 63% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 53% | 64% | 41% | 35% | 56% | 15% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 26% | 32% | 18% | 4% | 8% | 0% |
| Failed To Score | 13% | 4% | 23% | 21% | 4% | 37% |
Goals Conceded
| Bahia | Home | Away | Sao Paulo | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 74% | 76% | 73% | 73% | 60% | 85% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 38% | 32% | 45% | 29% | 16% | 41% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 9% | 4% | 14% | 10% | 4% | 15% |
| Clean Sheets | 26% | 24% | 27% | 27% | 40% | 15% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Bahia | Sao Paulo | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 96% | 96% |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% |
| Over 3.5 | 32% | 13% |
| Over 4.5 | 21% | 6% |
| BTTS | 66% | 56% |
| BTTS & Win | 30% | 17% |
| BTTS & Draw | 21% | 19% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 53% | 38% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 6% | 2% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Bahia | Sao Paulo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 43% | 37% |
| Draw 1st Half | 34% | 40% |
| Loss 1st Half | 23% | 23% |
| Scored 1st Half | 62% | 44% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 55% | 29% |
| Win 2nd Half | 32% | 35% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 40% | 23% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 28% | 42% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 51% | 52% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 45% | 60% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 85% | 65% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 51% | 17% |
Recent Venue Form
Bahia (H)W
Mirassol1–0
Mirassol1–0W
Remo2–1
Remo2–1W
Internacional3–2
Internacional3–2D
Vasco DA Gama0–0
Vasco DA Gama0–0D
Corinthians1–1
Corinthians1–1W
Chapecoense-sc2–0
Chapecoense-sc2–0Sao Paulo (A)L
Cruzeiro0–2
Cruzeiro0–2L
Palmeiras0–2
Palmeiras0–2L
Boca Juniors0–1
Boca Juniors0–1LChapecoense-sc0–1
Chapecoense-sc0–1D
Bolívar1–1
Bolívar1–1L
Gremio1–2
Gremio1–2Number of Corners
10.9
Corners / Match
33 games
League Avg
10.3
297 games
11.1
Corners / Match
51 games
| Match Corners | Bahia | Sao Paulo | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 91% | 88% | 84% |
| Over 7 | 88% | 80% | 76% |
| Over 8 | 73% | 73% | 68% |
| Over 9 | 61% | 67% | 57% |
| Over 10 | 42% | 49% | 42% |
| Over 11 | 42% | 41% | 33% |
| Over 12 | 30% | 37% | 26% |
| Over 13 | 27% | 27% | 19% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Bahia | Sao Paulo |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 5.7 | 6.4 |
| Corners Against / Match | 5.2 | 4.7 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 88% | 90% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 79% | 82% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 67% | 63% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 79% | 76% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 64% | 55% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 55% | 45% |
Head to Head · 27 matches
8
Bahia
30%
7
Draws
26%
12
Sao Paulo
44%
56%
Over 1.5
15/27
41%
Over 2.5
11/27
19%
Over 3.5
5/27
41%
BTTS
11/27
03/05/26Bahia
Sao Paulo
2–2Bahia26/10/25Bahia
Sao Paulo
2–0Bahia31/05/25Sao Paulo
Bahia
2–1Sao Paulo06/11/24Sao Paulo
Bahia
0–3Sao Paulo30/06/24Bahia
Sao Paulo
3–1Bahia29/11/23Sao Paulo
Bahia
0–1Sao Paulo30/07/23Bahia
Sao Paulo
0–0Bahia07/11/21Sao Paulo
Bahia
1–0Sao Paulo10/07/21Bahia
Sao Paulo
1–0Bahia28/11/20Sao Paulo
Bahia
1–3Sao Paulo20/08/20Bahia
Sao Paulo
1–1Bahia10/10/19Sao Paulo
Bahia
0–0Sao Paulo30/05/19Sao Paulo
Bahia
1–0Sao Paulo23/05/19Bahia
Sao Paulo
0–1Bahia19/05/19Bahia
Sao Paulo
0–0Bahia08/09/18Bahia
Sao Paulo
1–0Bahia13/05/18Sao Paulo
Bahia
2–2Sao Paulo03/12/17Bahia
Sao Paulo
1–1Bahia06/08/17Sao Paulo
Bahia
2–1Sao Paulo18/10/14Bahia
Sao Paulo
2–1Bahia| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | +33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | +30 | 63 |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | +14 | 53 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | +8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | +2 | 48 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +6 | 47 |
| 8 |  Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +1 | 42 |
| 9 |  RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | +3 | 40 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 |  Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 |  Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 |  Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | -22 | 10 |
Team Insights
Bahia- ●Bahia have won their last 3 home matches.
- ●Bahia have lost their last 2 away matches.
- ●Bahia failed to keep a clean sheet in 10 of their 15 home matches.
- ●Bahia have scored in 14 of their 15 home matches.
- ●Bahia failed to keep a clean sheet in 11 of their 15 away matches.
- ●Bahia have won 6 of their 15 away matches.
- ●Bahia have scored in 12 of their 15 away matches.
- ●Bahia have scored 57% of their goals in the first half.
- ●Bahia have conceded 56% of their goals in the first half.
Sao Paulo- ●Sao Paulo have scored in each of their last 11 home matches.
- ●Sao Paulo have lost their last 4 away matches.
- ●Sao Paulo failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 13 away matches.
- ●Sao Paulo failed to keep a clean sheet in 10 of their 15 home matches.
- ●Sao Paulo have scored in 14 of their 15 home matches.
- ●Sao Paulo failed to keep a clean sheet in 14 of their 15 away matches.
- ●Sao Paulo have lost 10 of their 15 away matches.
- ●69% of Sao Paulo's goals have been scored at home.
- ●77% of Sao Paulo's points have been earned at home.
Season Schedule
BahiaWHMirassol1–0
Mirassol1–0LAPalmeiras0–1
Palmeiras0–1LAAtletico Paranaense1–2
Atletico Paranaense1–2WHRemo2–1
Remo2–1WARB Bragantino3–2
RB Bragantino3–2WHInternacional3–2
Internacional3–2–HFlamengo18/10
Flamengo18/10–ASantos25/10
Santos25/10–HSao Paulo29/10
Sao Paulo29/10Sao PauloWHVitoria2–1
Vitoria2–1LACruzeiro0–2
Cruzeiro0–2LHSantos1–2
Santos1–2WHInternacional1–0
Internacional1–0LAPalmeiras0–2
Palmeiras0–2WHAtletico-MG2–0
Atletico-MG2–0–HVasco DA Gama18/10
Vasco DA Gama18/10–AMirassol24/10
Mirassol24/10–ABahia29/10
Bahia29/10Top Scorers
BahiaWillian Jose9 ⚽
Luciano Juba8 ⚽
Erick8 ⚽
Everaldo7 ⚽
Jean Lucas6 ⚽
Dell4 ⚽
Sao PauloJonathan Calleri16 ⚽
Luciano15 ⚽
Ferreira4 ⚽
Artur4 ⚽
D. Bobadilla3 ⚽
G. Tapia3 ⚽
Cards Given
BahiaErick7 🟨
Nicolás Acevedo7 🟨
Luciano Juba6 🟨
Ademir6 🟨
Jean Lucas6 🟨
Erick Pulga5 🟨
Sao PauloJonathan Calleri11 🟨
Enzo Díaz10 🟨
Luciano10 🟨
Wendell7 🟨
Damián Bobadilla6 🟨
Alan Franco6 🟨