Sao Paulo vs Fluminense — Serie A
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Sao Paulo and Fluminense meet in the Serie A 2026 season on 18 November 2026. Sao Paulo have recorded 21 wins from 52 matches this season (40% win rate), averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 56% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 40%; and clean sheets in 27% of games. Fluminense have won 48% of their 56 matches, with 1.50 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 63%, Over 2.5 at 48%, and clean sheets at 29%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.57 for Sao Paulo and 1.08 for Fluminense. The models give Sao Paulo a 42% win probability, with a draw at 26% and an Fluminense win at 31%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 49% and BTTS at 52%.
Season Statistics
Sao Paulo—
Fluminense10º
Position
4º
1.30
PPG
1.70
37%
Win %
47%
1.17
Goals / game
1.60
1.17
Conceded / game
1.23
56%
BTTS %
63%
27%
Clean sheet %
29%
40%
Over 2.5 %
48%
6.4
Avg corners
4.5
12.8
Avg shots
14.0
3.9
Avg shots on target
5.1
2.1
Avg yellow cards
2.6
13.2
Avg fouls
13.4
54.4%
Avg possession
58.6%
Home vs Away
Sao Paulo
Home (15)
—
Fluminense
Away (15)
2.00
PPG
1.00
60%
Win %
20%
1.60
Goals / game
1.33
0.87
Conceded / game
1.53
56%
BTTS %
58%
40%
Clean sheet %
23%
40%
Over 2.5 %
31%
6.4
Avg corners
4.5
12.8
Avg shots
14.0
3.9
Avg shots on target
5.1
2.1
Avg yellow cards
2.6
54.4%
Avg possession
58.6%
Goals Scored
| Sao Paulo | Home | Away | Fluminense | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 79% | 96% | 63% | 81% | 90% | 69% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 35% | 56% | 15% | 42% | 58% | 23% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 4% | 8% | 0% | 19% | 23% | 15% |
| Failed To Score | 21% | 4% | 37% | 19% | 10% | 31% |
Goals Conceded
| Sao Paulo | Home | Away | Fluminense | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 73% | 60% | 85% | 72% | 68% | 77% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 29% | 16% | 41% | 28% | 23% | 35% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 10% | 4% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 12% |
| Clean Sheets | 27% | 40% | 15% | 28% | 32% | 23% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Sao Paulo | Fluminense | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 96% | 89% |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 74% |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 26% |
| Over 4.5 | 6% | 12% |
| BTTS | 56% | 63% |
| BTTS & Win | 17% | 30% |
| BTTS & Draw | 19% | 19% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 38% | 47% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 2% | 2% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Sao Paulo | Fluminense | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 37% | 30% |
| Draw 1st Half | 40% | 47% |
| Loss 1st Half | 23% | 23% |
| Scored 1st Half | 44% | 42% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 29% | 39% |
| Win 2nd Half | 35% | 40% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 23% | 37% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 42% | 23% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 52% | 65% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 60% | 53% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 65% | 63% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 17% | 28% |
Recent Venue Form
Sao Paulo (H)W
Vitoria2–1
Vitoria2–1L
Santos1–2
Santos1–2W
Internacional1–0
Internacional1–0D
Boca Juniors1–1
Boca Juniors1–1W
Atletico-MG2–0
Atletico-MG2–0W
RB Bragantino2–1
RB Bragantino2–1Fluminense (A)L
Flamengo0–1
Flamengo0–1W
Corinthians3–1
Corinthians3–1L
Platense1–2
Platense1–2LAtletico-MG1–3
Atletico-MG1–3D
Atletico Paranaense3–3
Atletico Paranaense3–3D
Independ. Rivadavia1–1
Independ. Rivadavia1–1Number of Corners
11.1
Corners / Match
51 games
League Avg
10.3
297 games
8.6
Corners / Match
54 games
| Match Corners | Sao Paulo | Fluminense | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 88% | 72% | 84% |
| Over 7 | 80% | 63% | 76% |
| Over 8 | 73% | 54% | 68% |
| Over 9 | 67% | 39% | 57% |
| Over 10 | 49% | 26% | 42% |
| Over 11 | 41% | 19% | 33% |
| Over 12 | 37% | 13% | 26% |
| Over 13 | 27% | 7% | 19% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Sao Paulo | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 6.4 | 4.5 |
| Corners Against / Match | 4.7 | 4.1 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 90% | 76% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 82% | 61% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 63% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 76% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 55% | 54% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 45% | 48% |
Head to Head · 33 matches
10
Sao Paulo
30%
8
Draws
24%
15
Fluminense
45%
88%
Over 1.5
29/33
64%
Over 2.5
21/33
30%
Over 3.5
10/33
73%
BTTS
24/33
16/05/26Sao Paulo
Fluminense
2–1Sao Paulo27/11/25Sao Paulo
Fluminense
6–0Sao Paulo27/07/25Fluminense
Sao Paulo
3–1Fluminense01/09/24Sao Paulo
Fluminense
2–0Sao Paulo13/05/24Fluminense
Sao Paulo
2–1Fluminense23/11/23Sao Paulo
Fluminense
1–0Sao Paulo01/07/23Fluminense
Sao Paulo
1–0Fluminense05/11/22Sao Paulo
Fluminense
3–1Sao Paulo17/07/22Fluminense
Sao Paulo
2–2Fluminense12/09/21Sao Paulo
Fluminense
2–1Sao Paulo30/05/21Fluminense
Sao Paulo
0–0Fluminense27/12/20Sao Paulo
Fluminense
1–2Sao Paulo06/09/20Fluminense
Sao Paulo
3–1Fluminense07/11/19Fluminense
Sao Paulo
0–2Fluminense27/07/19Sao Paulo
Fluminense
1–2Sao Paulo02/09/18Fluminense
Sao Paulo
1–1Fluminense29/04/18Sao Paulo
Fluminense
1–1Sao Paulo18/10/17Sao Paulo
Fluminense
3–1Sao Paulo25/06/17Fluminense
Sao Paulo
1–1Fluminense17/10/16Sao Paulo
Fluminense
1–2Sao Paulo| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | +33 | 64 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | +30 | 63 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | +14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +11 | 51 |
| 5 |  Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | +8 | 49 |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | +2 | 48 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +1 | 42 |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | +3 | 40 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 |  Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 |  Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 |  Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 |  Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | -22 | 10 |
Team Insights
Sao Paulo- ●Sao Paulo have scored in each of their last 11 home matches.
- ●Sao Paulo have lost their last 4 away matches.
- ●Sao Paulo failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 13 away matches.
- ●Sao Paulo failed to keep a clean sheet in 10 of their 15 home matches.
- ●Sao Paulo have scored in 14 of their 15 home matches.
- ●Sao Paulo failed to keep a clean sheet in 14 of their 15 away matches.
- ●Sao Paulo have lost 10 of their 15 away matches.
- ●69% of Sao Paulo's goals have been scored at home.
- ●77% of Sao Paulo's points have been earned at home.
Fluminense- ●Fluminense have won their last 4 home matches.
- ●Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in their last 2 home matches.
- ●Fluminense have scored in each of their last 4 home matches.
- ●Fluminense failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 12 away matches.
- ●Fluminense failed to keep a clean sheet in 10 of their 15 home matches.
- ●Fluminense have scored in 14 of their 15 home matches.
- ●Fluminense failed to keep a clean sheet in 14 of their 15 away matches.
- ●Fluminense have scored in 12 of their 15 away matches.
Season Schedule
Sao PauloWHVitoria2–1
Vitoria2–1LACruzeiro0–2
Cruzeiro0–2LHSantos1–2
Santos1–2WHInternacional1–0
Internacional1–0LAPalmeiras0–2
Palmeiras0–2WHAtletico-MG2–0
Atletico-MG2–0–HVasco DA Gama18/10
Vasco DA Gama18/10–AMirassol24/10
Mirassol24/10–ABahia29/10
Bahia29/10FluminenseLAFlamengo0–1
Flamengo0–1WHCoritiba4–0
Coritiba4–0WACorinthians3–1
Corinthians3–1LAAtletico-MG1–3
Atletico-MG1–3WHVasco DA Gama1–0
Vasco DA Gama1–0DAAtletico Paranaense3–3
Atletico Paranaense3–3–HSantos18/10
Santos18/10–AChapecoense-sc24/10
Chapecoense-sc24/10–HInternacional28/10
Internacional28/10Top Scorers
Sao PauloJonathan Calleri16 ⚽
Luciano15 ⚽
Ferreira4 ⚽
Artur4 ⚽
D. Bobadilla3 ⚽
G. Tapia3 ⚽
FluminenseJohn Kennedy15 ⚽
K. Serna9 ⚽
Hulk8 ⚽
J. Savarino8 ⚽
A. Canobbio7 ⚽
Hercules6 ⚽
Cards Given
Sao PauloJonathan Calleri11 🟨
Enzo Díaz10 🟨
Luciano10 🟨
Wendell7 🟨
Damián Bobadilla6 🟨
Alan Franco6 🟨
FluminenseLuciano Acosta8 🟨
Agustín Canobbio8 🟨
Nonato7 🟨
Guga7 🟨
Facundo Bernal7 🟨
A. Canobbio6 🟨