Brazil · Serie A · Regular Season - 38

Bahia

6º · 1.61 PPG

Days Since Last Match: 34d 20h

–

Atletico-MG

7º · 1.56 PPG

Days Since Last Match: 33d 22h

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Bahia and Atletico-MG meet in the Serie A 2026 season on 2 December 2026. Bahia have recorded 25 wins from 50 matches this season (50% win rate), averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 66% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 60%; and clean sheets in 24% of games. Atletico-MG have won 43% of their 61 matches, with 1.41 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 54%, Over 2.5 at 46%, and clean sheets at 26%.

Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.68 for Bahia and 1.16 for Atletico-MG. The models give Bahia a 49% win probability, with a draw at 25% and an Atletico-MG win at 26%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 52% and BTTS at 55%.

Season Statistics

Bahia

—

Atletico-MG

6º

Position

7º

1.61

PPG

1.56

42%

Win %

44%

1.45

Goals / game

1.38

1.27

Conceded / game

1.19

66%

BTTS %

54%

24%

Clean sheet %

26%

60%

Over 2.5 %

46%

5.8

Avg corners

5.0

13.5

Avg shots

13.2

4.6

Avg shots on target

4.8

2.4

Avg yellow cards

1.7

13.6

Avg fouls

11.6

55.0%

Avg possession

50.7%

Home vs Away

Bahia

Home (17)

—

Atletico-MG

Away (16)

1.76

PPG

0.94

47%

Win %

25%

1.53

Goals / game

1.06

1.12

Conceded / game

1.31

74%

BTTS %

45%

22%

Clean sheet %

19%

70%

Over 2.5 %

39%

5.8

Avg corners

5.0

13.5

Avg shots

13.2

4.6

Avg shots on target

4.8

2.4

Avg yellow cards

1.7

55.0%

Avg possession

50.7%

Goals Scored

	Bahia	Home	Away	Atletico-MG	Home	Away
Over 0.5 Scored	86%	93%	78%	73%	87%	58%
Over 1.5 Scored	52%	63%	39%	40%	52%	29%
Over 2.5 Scored	26%	33%	17%	16%	19%	13%
Failed To Score	14%	7%	22%	27%	13%	42%

Goals Conceded

	Bahia	Home	Away	Atletico-MG	Home	Away
Over 0.5 Conceded	76%	78%	74%	74%	68%	81%
Over 1.5 Conceded	40%	37%	43%	29%	16%	42%
Over 2.5 Conceded	10%	7%	13%	5%	6%	3%
Clean Sheets	24%	22%	26%	26%	32%	19%

Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions

	Bahia	Atletico-MG
Over 0.5	96%	94%
Over 1.5	84%	69%
Over 2.5	60%	45%
Over 3.5	32%	24%
Over 4.5	22%	6%
BTTS	66%	53%
BTTS & Win	30%	23%
BTTS & Draw	22%	24%
BTTS & Over 2.5	52%	39%
BTTS No & Over 2.5	8%	6%

1st Half / 2nd Half

	Bahia	Atletico-MG
Win 1st Half	42%	32%
Draw 1st Half	36%	40%
Loss 1st Half	22%	27%
Scored 1st Half	62%	44%
Conceded 1st Half	54%	39%
Win 2nd Half	32%	32%
Draw 2nd Half	38%	42%
Loss 2nd Half	30%	26%
Scored 2nd Half	50%	55%
Conceded 2nd Half	46%	53%
Over 0.5 HT	84%	68%
Over 1.5 HT	50%	26%

Recent Venue Form

Bahia (H)

Sao Paulo3–2

Flamengo0–3

Mirassol1–0

Remo2–1

Internacional3–2

Vasco DA Gama0–0

Atletico-MG (A)

Flamengo2–3

Atletico Torque0–2

Atletico Paranaense2–2

Santos0–2

Sao Paulo0–2

Cruzeiro1–1

Number of Corners

11.6

Corners / Match

36 games

League Avg

10.4

324 games

10.2

Corners / Match

50 games

Match Corners	Bahia	Atletico-MG	League Avg
Over 6	92%	86%	85%
Over 7	89%	74%	77%
Over 8	75%	70%	69%
Over 9	64%	58%	57%
Over 10	47%	40%	43%
Over 11	47%	34%	35%
Over 12	36%	28%	28%
Over 13	33%	24%	21%

Team Corners

Team Corners	Bahia	Atletico-MG
Corners Earned / Match	5.8	5.0
Corners Against / Match	5.8	5.2
Over 2.5 Corners For	89%	76%
Over 3.5 Corners For	81%	66%
Over 4.5 Corners For	67%	52%
Over 2.5 Corners Against	81%	76%
Over 3.5 Corners Against	67%	64%
Over 4.5 Corners Against	58%	56%

Head to Head · 26 matches

Bahia

27%

Draws

42%

Atletico-MG

31%

85%

Over 1.5

22/26

38%

Over 2.5

10/26

19%

Over 3.5

5/26

58%

BTTS

15/26

21/07/26

Atletico-MG

1–1

Bahia

05/11/25

Atletico-MG

3–0

Bahia

13/07/25

Bahia

2–1

Atletico-MG

15/09/24

Bahia

3–0

Atletico-MG

02/06/24

Atletico-MG

1–1

Bahia

07/12/23

Bahia

4–1

Atletico-MG

13/08/23

Atletico-MG

1–0

Bahia

02/12/21

Bahia

2–3

Atletico-MG

05/08/21

Bahia

2–1

Atletico-MG

29/07/21

Atletico-MG

2–0

Bahia

25/07/21

Atletico-MG

3–0

Bahia

13/02/21

Atletico-MG

1–1

Bahia

19/10/20

Bahia

3–1

Atletico-MG

28/11/19

Bahia

1–1

Atletico-MG

24/08/19

Atletico-MG

0–1

Bahia

17/11/18

Atletico-MG

1–0

Bahia

30/07/18

Bahia

2–2

Atletico-MG

12/11/17

Bahia

2–2

Atletico-MG

20/07/17

Atletico-MG

0–2

Bahia

21/10/14

Bahia

1–1

Atletico-MG

Serie A

#	Team	MP	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Flamengo	32	21	7	4	+37	70
2	Palmeiras	33	20	10	3	+34	70
3	Cruzeiro	32	16	6	10	+5	54
4	Atletico Paranaense	32	15	9	8	+12	54
5	Fluminense	33	15	9	9	+10	54
6	Bahia	33	14	11	8	+6	53
7	Atletico-MG	32	14	8	10	+6	50
8	Santos	33	12	11	10	+2	47
9	RB Bragantino	33	12	8	13	+4	44
10	Sao Paulo	33	12	7	14	0	43
11	Botafogo	33	10	9	14	-8	39
12	Coritiba	32	10	9	13	-12	39
13	Vasco DA Gama	31	10	8	13	-6	38
14	Vitoria	32	10	8	14	-11	38
15	Mirassol	32	9	10	13	-8	37
16	Internacional	33	8	11	14	-5	35
17	Gremio	32	8	10	14	-9	34
18	Corinthians	32	8	9	15	-8	33
19	Remo	33	6	11	16	-15	29
20	Chapecoense-sc	32	4	9	19	-34	21
20	Chapecoense B	20	1	7	12	-22	10

Team Insights

Bahia

●Bahia failed to keep a clean sheet in 12 of their 17 home matches.
●Bahia have scored in 15 of their 17 home matches.
●Bahia failed to keep a clean sheet in 12 of their 16 away matches.
●Bahia have won 6 of their 16 away matches.
●Bahia have scored in 13 of their 16 away matches.
●Bahia have scored 58% of their goals in the first half.

Atletico-MG

●Atletico-MG have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 away matches.
●Atletico-MG failed to keep a clean sheet in 12 of their 17 home matches.
●Atletico-MG have scored in 15 of their 17 home matches.
●Atletico-MG failed to keep a clean sheet in 13 of their 16 away matches.

Bahia

WHSao Paulo10º3–2

DASantos8º1–1

LHFlamengo1º0–3

WHMirassol15º1–0

LAPalmeiras2º0–1

LAAtletico Paranaense4º1–2

WHRemo19º2–1

WARB Bragantino9º3–2

WHInternacional16º3–2

WAVitoria14º2–0

Atletico-MG

LHCruzeiro3º0–1

LAFlamengo1º2–3

LAAtletico Torque1º0–2

WHCoritiba12º1–0

WHAtletico Torque1º3–0

WHSantos8º2–1

DAAtletico Paranaense4º2–2

WHRB Bragantino9º1–0

Season Schedule

Bahia

Sao Paulo3–2

Santos1–1

Flamengo0–3

Mirassol1–0

Palmeiras0–1

Atletico Paranaense1–2

–A

Cruzeiro06/11

–A

Gremio18/11

–H

Coritiba22/11

Atletico-MG

Cruzeiro0–1

Flamengo2–3

Coritiba1–0

Santos2–1

Atletico Paranaense2–2

RB Bragantino1–0

–A

Botafogo05/11

–A

Mirassol18/11

–H

Corinthians22/11

Top Scorers

Bahia

Willian Jose9 ⚽

Luciano Juba8 ⚽

Erick8 ⚽

Everaldo7 ⚽

Jean Lucas6 ⚽

Rodrigo5 ⚽

Atletico-MG

Reinier6 ⚽

Victor Hugo6 ⚽

Cuello6 ⚽

Bernard6 ⚽

Bernard Anício Caldeira Duarte5 ⚽

M. Cassierra5 ⚽

Cards Given

Bahia

Erick7 🟨

Jean Lucas7 🟨

Nicolás Acevedo7 🟨

Luciano Juba6 🟨

Ademir6 🟨

David Duarte5 🟨

Atletico-MG

Alan Franco8 🟨

Ruan Tressoldi7 🟨

Lyanco7 🟨

Natanael6 🟨

Ruan6 🟨

M. Cisse5 🟨

Bahia vs Atletico-MG — Serie A

Unlock all Match Predictions

Season Statistics

Home vs Away

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions

1st Half / 2nd Half

Recent Venue Form

Number of Corners

Team Corners

Head to Head · 26 matches

Team Insights

Season Schedule

Top Scorers

Cards Given