Orange County SC vs Phoenix Rising — USL Championship
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Orange County SC and Phoenix Rising meet in the USL Championship 2026 season on 18 October 2026. Orange County SC have recorded 11 wins from 37 matches this season (30% win rate), averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 59% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 51%; and clean sheets in 22% of games. Phoenix Rising have won 33% of their 36 matches, with 1.33 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 58%, Over 2.5 at 58%, and clean sheets at 17%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.40 for Orange County SC and 1.03 for Phoenix Rising. The models give Orange County SC a 44% win probability, with a draw at 28% and an Phoenix Rising win at 28%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 44% and BTTS at 48%.
Season Statistics
Orange County SC—
Phoenix Rising1º
Position
10º
1.82
PPG
1.24
47%
Win %
29%
1.59
Goals / game
1.35
1.12
Conceded / game
1.41
59%
BTTS %
58%
22%
Clean sheet %
17%
51%
Over 2.5 %
58%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Orange County SC
Home (6)
—
Phoenix Rising
Away (8)
1.83
PPG
1.00
50%
Win %
25%
1.17
Goals / game
1.00
0.67
Conceded / game
1.50
44%
BTTS %
56%
33%
Clean sheet %
11%
50%
Over 2.5 %
56%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Orange County | Home | Away | Phoenix Rising | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 78% | 72% | 84% | 72% | 78% | 67% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 30% | 28% | 32% | 39% | 61% | 17% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 11% | 11% | 11% | 19% | 33% | 6% |
| Failed To Score | 22% | 28% | 16% | 28% | 22% | 33% |
Goals Conceded
| Orange County | Home | Away | Phoenix Rising | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 78% | 67% | 89% | 83% | 78% | 89% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 51% | 50% | 53% | 44% | 33% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 16% | 22% | 11% | 17% | 11% | 22% |
| Clean Sheets | 22% | 33% | 11% | 17% | 22% | 11% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Orange County | Phoenix Rising | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 97% | 97% |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 86% |
| Over 2.5 | 51% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 28% |
| Over 4.5 | 19% | 8% |
| BTTS | 59% | 58% |
| BTTS & Win | 11% | 19% |
| BTTS & Draw | 24% | 22% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 41% | 42% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 11% | 17% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Orange County | Phoenix Rising | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 20% | 25% |
| Draw 1st Half | 49% | 42% |
| Loss 1st Half | 31% | 33% |
| Scored 1st Half | 40% | 44% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 51% | 53% |
| Win 2nd Half | 40% | 31% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 26% | 42% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 34% | 28% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 63% | 53% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 60% | 50% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 71% | 75% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 37% | 47% |
Recent Venue Form
Orange County (H)L
Monterey Bay1–2
Monterey Bay1–2W
Pittsburgh Riverhounds1–0
Pittsburgh Riverhounds1–0L
Las Vegas Lights0–2
Las Vegas Lights0–2D
Sacramento Republic1–1
Sacramento Republic1–1L
FC Tulsa1–5
FC Tulsa1–5L
Louisville City2–3
Louisville City2–3Phoenix Rising (A)L
New Mexico United1–2
New Mexico United1–2L
Oakland Roots0–3
Oakland Roots0–3DMonterey Bay1–1
Monterey Bay1–1DSacramento Republic2–2
Sacramento Republic2–2L
Lexington0–1
Lexington0–1DLas Vegas Lights1–1
Las Vegas Lights1–1Head to Head · 35 matches
9
Orange County
26%
10
Draws
29%
16
Phoenix Rising
46%
80%
Over 1.5
28/35
49%
Over 2.5
17/35
14%
Over 3.5
5/35
63%
BTTS
22/35
17/05/26Orange County SC
Phoenix Rising
2–1Orange County SC02/04/26Phoenix Rising
Orange County SC
1–2Phoenix Rising15/03/26Orange County SC
Phoenix Rising
1–1Orange County SC31/07/25Phoenix Rising
Orange County SC
4–1Phoenix Rising08/06/25Orange County SC
Phoenix Rising
3–1Orange County SC26/09/24Phoenix Rising
Orange County SC
2–0Phoenix Rising09/06/24Orange County SC
Phoenix Rising
2–1Orange County SC29/10/23Phoenix Rising
Orange County SC
1–2Phoenix Rising01/10/23Orange County SC
Phoenix Rising
1–1Orange County SC21/05/23Phoenix Rising
Orange County SC
0–1Phoenix Rising13/08/22Phoenix Rising
Orange County SC
2–1Phoenix Rising03/07/22Orange County SC
Phoenix Rising
2–2Orange County SC14/10/21Phoenix Rising
Orange County SC
1–0Phoenix Rising03/10/21Phoenix Rising
Orange County SC
0–1Phoenix Rising19/09/21Orange County SC
Phoenix Rising
2–1Orange County SC15/08/21Orange County SC
Phoenix Rising
1–1Orange County SC27/09/20Orange County SC
Phoenix Rising
1–0Orange County SC26/07/20Phoenix Rising
Orange County SC
1–0Phoenix Rising17/07/20Phoenix Rising
Orange County SC
1–1Phoenix Rising16/06/19Orange County SC
Phoenix Rising
3–0Orange County SC| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tampa Bay Rowdies | 28 | 16 | 7 | 5 | +23 | 55 |
| 1 |  El Paso Locomotive | 28 | 15 | 5 | 8 | +12 | 50 |
| 2 |  Detroit City | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | +14 | 50 |
| 2 | New Mexico United | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | +11 | 49 |
| 3 |  Charleston Battery | 27 | 14 | 4 | 9 | +19 | 46 |
| 3 | Sacramento Republic | 28 | 11 | 12 | 5 | +12 | 45 |
| 4 | Lexington | 28 | 13 | 5 | 10 | +16 | 44 |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | +2 | 41 |
| 5 | FC Tulsa | 28 | 11 | 10 | 7 | +7 | 43 |
| 5 | Louisville City | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | +3 | 40 |
| 6 |  Colorado Springs | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | +3 | 41 |
| 6 |  Hartford Athletic | 27 | 9 | 12 | 6 | +2 | 39 |
| 7 | Orange County SC | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | -7 | 39 |
| 7 |  Rhode Island | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | +9 | 38 |
| 8 |  San Antonio | 28 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 39 |
| 8 |  Miami FC | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | -9 | 36 |
| 9 | Phoenix Rising | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | -3 | 36 |
| 9 |  Indy Eleven | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | -2 | 34 |
| 10 | Las Vegas Lights | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | -4 | 36 |
| 10 |  Loudoun United | 27 | 5 | 12 | 10 | -10 | 27 |
| 11 | Oakland Roots | 28 | 8 | 11 | 9 | -2 | 35 |
| 11 |  Birmingham Legion | 26 | 4 | 11 | 11 | -7 | 23 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 28 | 5 | 6 | 17 | -20 | 21 |
| 12 |  Brooklyn | 27 | 4 | 6 | 17 | -28 | 18 |
| 13 |  Sporting JAX | 27 | 3 | 5 | 19 | -41 | 14 |
Team Insights
Orange County- ●Orange County SC have lost their last 2 away matches.
- ●Orange County SC failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 11 away matches.
- ●Orange County SC failed to keep a clean sheet in 12 of their 14 away matches.
- ●Orange County SC have won 5 of their 14 away matches.
- ●Orange County SC have scored in 13 of their 14 away matches.
Phoenix Rising- ●Phoenix Rising failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 11 matches.
- ●Phoenix Rising have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 4 matches.
- ●Phoenix Rising failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 home matches.
- ●Phoenix Rising have scored in each of their last 5 home matches.
- ●Phoenix Rising have lost their last 2 away matches.
- ●Phoenix Rising failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 9 away matches.
- ●Phoenix Rising failed to keep a clean sheet in 11 of their 14 home matches.
- ●Phoenix Rising have scored in 12 of their 14 home matches.
- ●Phoenix Rising failed to keep a clean sheet in 12 of their 14 away matches.
- ●Phoenix Rising have scored in 10 of their 14 away matches.
- ●67% of Phoenix Rising's goals have been scored at home.
Season Schedule
Orange CountyLAEl Paso Locomotive1–2
El Paso Locomotive1–2LHMonterey Bay1–2
Monterey Bay1–2WHPittsburgh Riverhounds1–0
Pittsburgh Riverhounds1–0LALexington0–6
Lexington0–6LHLas Vegas Lights0–2
Las Vegas Lights0–2DHSacramento Republic1–1
Sacramento Republic1–1–HPhoenix Rising18/10
Phoenix Rising18/10–ASan Antonio25/10
San Antonio25/10Phoenix RisingWHLas Vegas Lights3–2
Las Vegas Lights3–2LANew Mexico United1–2
New Mexico United1–2LAOakland Roots0–3
Oakland Roots0–3LHEl Paso Locomotive1–3
El Paso Locomotive1–3WHFC Tulsa2–1
FC Tulsa2–1DAMonterey Bay1–1
Monterey Bay1–1–AOrange County SC18/10
Orange County SC18/10–HLexington25/10
Lexington25/10Top Scorers
Orange CountyY. Bazini8 ⚽
O. Sylla8 ⚽
C. Hegardt5 ⚽
S. Kelly5 ⚽
L. MacKinnon4 ⚽
N. Benalcazar3 ⚽
Phoenix RisingI. Sacko14 ⚽
G. Studenhofft7 ⚽
K. Arase3 ⚽
D. Badji3 ⚽
JP Scearce3 ⚽
D. Flores2 ⚽
Cards Given
Orange CountyT. Brewitt9 🟨
G. Tubbs8 🟨
C. Hegardt5 🟨
A. Marinch5 🟨
S. Kelly5 🟨
L. MacKinnon4 🟨
Phoenix RisingJ. Moursou13 🟨
L. Biasi12 🟨
A. Pelayo8 🟨
C. Smith6 🟨
JP Scearce6 🟨
C. Dennis5 🟨