Monterey Bay vs Las Vegas Lights — USL Championship
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Monterey Bay and Las Vegas Lights meet in the USL Championship 2026 season on 25 October 2026. Monterey Bay have recorded 5 wins from 32 matches this season (16% win rate), averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 69% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 53%; and clean sheets in 13% of games. Las Vegas Lights have won 39% of their 36 matches, with 1.22 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 56%, Over 2.5 at 42%, and clean sheets at 31%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.59 for Monterey Bay and 1.38 for Las Vegas Lights. The models give Monterey Bay a 38% win probability, with a draw at 26% and an Las Vegas Lights win at 36%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 57% and BTTS at 60%.
Season Statistics
Monterey Bay—
Las Vegas Lights12º
Position
9º
0.88
PPG
1.31
24%
Win %
38%
1.00
Goals / game
1.50
1.59
Conceded / game
1.63
69%
BTTS %
56%
13%
Clean sheet %
31%
53%
Over 2.5 %
42%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Monterey Bay
Home (9)
—
Las Vegas Lights
Away (9)
1.44
PPG
1.11
44%
Win %
33%
1.22
Goals / game
1.67
1.11
Conceded / game
2.11
67%
BTTS %
55%
20%
Clean sheet %
30%
53%
Over 2.5 %
50%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Monterey Bay | Home | Away | Las Vegas | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 75% | 80% | 71% | 81% | 75% | 85% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 31% | 40% | 24% | 39% | 25% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 6% | 7% | 6% | 3% | 0% | 5% |
| Failed To Score | 25% | 20% | 29% | 19% | 25% | 15% |
Goals Conceded
| Monterey Bay | Home | Away | Las Vegas | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 88% | 80% | 94% | 69% | 69% | 70% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 47% | 40% | 53% | 39% | 31% | 45% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 38% | 27% | 47% | 22% | 6% | 35% |
| Clean Sheets | 13% | 20% | 6% | 31% | 31% | 30% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Monterey Bay | Las Vegas | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 94% | 94% |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 69% |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 25% |
| Over 4.5 | 25% | 22% |
| BTTS | 69% | 56% |
| BTTS & Win | 9% | 14% |
| BTTS & Draw | 19% | 14% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 50% | 42% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 3% | 0% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Monterey Bay | Las Vegas | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 19% | 22% |
| Draw 1st Half | 50% | 44% |
| Loss 1st Half | 31% | 33% |
| Scored 1st Half | 34% | 47% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 50% | 58% |
| Win 2nd Half | 19% | 31% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 28% | 42% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 53% | 28% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 56% | 53% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 75% | 39% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 66% | 78% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 34% | 36% |
Recent Venue Form
Monterey Bay (H)L
Lexington2–3
Lexington2–3D
Phoenix Rising1–1
Phoenix Rising1–1D
Sacramento Republic1–1
Sacramento Republic1–1L
New Mexico United2–5
New Mexico United2–5L
Orange County SC1–2
Orange County SC1–2LLas Vegas Lights2–3
Las Vegas Lights2–3Las Vegas (A)LPhoenix Rising2–3
Phoenix Rising2–3LSacramento Republic2–3
Sacramento Republic2–3WOrange County SC2–0
Orange County SC2–0LLexington0–2
Lexington0–2W
Miami FC1–0
Miami FC1–0W
Detroit City1–0
Detroit City1–0Head to Head · 10 matches
4
Monterey Bay
40%
2
Draws
20%
4
Las Vegas
40%
70%
Over 1.5
7/10
50%
Over 2.5
5/10
40%
Over 3.5
4/10
50%
BTTS
5/10
12/07/26Las Vegas Lights
Monterey Bay
2–3Las Vegas Lights29/03/26Monterey Bay
Las Vegas Lights
1–0Monterey Bay26/10/25Las Vegas Lights
Monterey Bay
1–1Las Vegas Lights15/06/25Monterey Bay
Las Vegas Lights
2–0Monterey Bay15/09/24Monterey Bay
Las Vegas Lights
0–0Monterey Bay14/04/24Las Vegas Lights
Monterey Bay
3–1Las Vegas Lights17/09/23Las Vegas Lights
Monterey Bay
3–2Las Vegas Lights11/06/23Monterey Bay
Las Vegas Lights
1–2Monterey Bay28/09/22Monterey Bay
Las Vegas Lights
4–0Monterey Bay08/05/22Las Vegas Lights
Monterey Bay
1–0Las Vegas Lights| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tampa Bay Rowdies | 28 | 16 | 7 | 5 | +23 | 55 |
| 1 |  El Paso Locomotive | 28 | 15 | 5 | 8 | +12 | 50 |
| 2 | Detroit City | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | +14 | 50 |
| 2 | New Mexico United | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | +11 | 49 |
| 3 |  Charleston Battery | 27 | 14 | 4 | 9 | +19 | 46 |
| 3 | Sacramento Republic | 28 | 11 | 12 | 5 | +12 | 45 |
| 4 | Lexington | 28 | 13 | 5 | 10 | +16 | 44 |
| 4 |  Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | +2 | 41 |
| 5 |  FC Tulsa | 28 | 11 | 10 | 7 | +7 | 43 |
| 5 |  Louisville City | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | +3 | 40 |
| 6 |  Colorado Springs | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | +3 | 41 |
| 6 |  Hartford Athletic | 27 | 9 | 12 | 6 | +2 | 39 |
| 7 | Orange County SC | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | -7 | 39 |
| 7 |  Rhode Island | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | +9 | 38 |
| 8 |  San Antonio | 28 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 39 |
| 8 | Miami FC | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | -9 | 36 |
| 9 | Phoenix Rising | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | -3 | 36 |
| 9 |  Indy Eleven | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | -2 | 34 |
| 10 | Las Vegas Lights | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | -4 | 36 |
| 10 |  Loudoun United | 27 | 5 | 12 | 10 | -10 | 27 |
| 11 |  Oakland Roots | 28 | 8 | 11 | 9 | -2 | 35 |
| 11 |  Birmingham Legion | 26 | 4 | 11 | 11 | -7 | 23 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 28 | 5 | 6 | 17 | -20 | 21 |
| 12 |  Brooklyn | 27 | 4 | 6 | 17 | -28 | 18 |
| 13 |  Sporting JAX | 27 | 3 | 5 | 19 | -41 | 14 |
Team Insights
Monterey Bay- ●Monterey Bay failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 13 matches.
- ●Monterey Bay have failed to win in their last 5 home matches.
- ●Monterey Bay failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 home matches.
- ●Monterey Bay have scored in each of their last 10 home matches.
- ●Monterey Bay failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 8 away matches.
- ●Monterey Bay failed to keep a clean sheet in 10 of their 13 home matches.
- ●Monterey Bay failed to keep a clean sheet in 14 of their 15 away matches.
- ●Monterey Bay have lost 11 of their 15 away matches.
Las Vegas- ●Las Vegas Lights have scored in each of their last 6 matches.
- ●Las Vegas Lights have lost their last 2 away matches.
- ●Las Vegas Lights have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 away matches.
- ●Las Vegas Lights failed to keep a clean sheet in 11 of their 14 away matches.
- ●Las Vegas Lights have won 5 of their 14 away matches.
- ●Las Vegas Lights have scored in 13 of their 14 away matches.
- ●66% of Las Vegas Lights's goals conceded were conceded away.
Season Schedule
Monterey BayLANew Mexico United1–3
New Mexico United1–3WAOrange County SC2–1
Orange County SC2–1LHLexington2–3
Lexington2–3LACharleston Battery0–1
Charleston Battery0–1DHPhoenix Rising1–1
Phoenix Rising1–1DHSacramento Republic1–1
Sacramento Republic1–1–HColorado Springs18/10
Colorado Springs18/10–HLas Vegas Lights25/10
Las Vegas Lights25/10Las VegasLAPhoenix Rising2–3
Phoenix Rising2–3WHSan Antonio1–0
San Antonio1–0LASacramento Republic2–3
Sacramento Republic2–3DHHartford Athletic1–1
Hartford Athletic1–1WAOrange County SC2–0
Orange County SC2–0LHNew Mexico United1–2
New Mexico United1–2–HLexington18/10
Lexington18/10–AMonterey Bay25/10
Monterey Bay25/10Top Scorers
Monterey BayS. Lletget6 ⚽
I. Paul6 ⚽
R. Bidois5 ⚽
W. Leggett4 ⚽
Z. Farnsworth3 ⚽
R. Nakamura2 ⚽
Las VegasJ. Rodriguez12 ⚽
O. Anderson12 ⚽
A. Okyere5 ⚽
M. Arteaga3 ⚽
T. Antonoglou2 ⚽
C. Pinzon2 ⚽
Cards Given
Monterey BayZ. Farnsworth10 🟨
K. Egwu9 🟨
J. Garcia8 🟨
R. Nakamura6 🟨
Q. Elliot6 🟨
I. Paul6 🟨
Las VegasM. Ybarra7 🟨
G. Probo7 🟨
O. Anderson6 🟨
J. Rodriguez5 🟨
C. Locker4 🟨
C. Pinzon4 🟨