Sarasota Paradise vs Naples — USL League One
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Sarasota Paradise and Naples meet in the USL League One 2026 season on 21 October 2026. Sarasota Paradise have recorded 13 wins from 39 matches this season (33% win rate), averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 59% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 59%; and clean sheets in 18% of games. Naples have won 36% of their 39 matches, with 1.13 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 41%, Over 2.5 at 46%, and clean sheets at 31%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.83 for Sarasota Paradise and 1.21 for Naples. The models give Sarasota Paradise a 50% win probability, with a draw at 25% and an Naples win at 25%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 59% and BTTS at 59%.
Season Statistics
Sarasota Paradise—
Naples11º
Position
9º
1.24
PPG
1.33
34%
Win %
40%
1.45
Goals / game
1.17
1.55
Conceded / game
1.47
59%
BTTS %
41%
18%
Clean sheet %
31%
59%
Over 2.5 %
46%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Sarasota Paradise
Home (14)
—
Naples
Away (15)
1.64
PPG
0.80
50%
Win %
20%
1.93
Goals / game
1.00
1.43
Conceded / game
1.73
65%
BTTS %
53%
18%
Clean sheet %
16%
71%
Over 2.5 %
53%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Sarasota Paradise | Home | Away | Naples | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 72% | 82% | 64% | 69% | 75% | 63% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 38% | 53% | 27% | 36% | 50% | 21% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 13% | 18% | 9% | 8% | 10% | 5% |
| Failed To Score | 28% | 18% | 36% | 31% | 25% | 37% |
Goals Conceded
| Sarasota Paradise | Home | Away | Naples | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 82% | 82% | 82% | 69% | 55% | 84% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 51% | 59% | 45% | 44% | 30% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 21% | 18% | 23% | 23% | 15% | 32% |
| Clean Sheets | 18% | 18% | 18% | 31% | 45% | 16% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Sarasota Paradise | Naples | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 95% | 97% |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 74% |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 23% |
| Over 4.5 | 23% | 13% |
| BTTS | 59% | 41% |
| BTTS & Win | 21% | 8% |
| BTTS & Draw | 13% | 13% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 51% | 33% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 8% | 13% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Sarasota Paradise | Naples | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 29% | 39% |
| Draw 1st Half | 42% | 16% |
| Loss 1st Half | 29% | 45% |
| Scored 1st Half | 42% | 47% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 39% | 50% |
| Win 2nd Half | 26% | 26% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 18% | 34% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 55% | 39% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 50% | 47% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 71% | 50% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 63% | 89% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 39% | 21% |
Recent Venue Form
Sarasota Paradise (H)W
Richmond Kickers3–2
Richmond Kickers3–2L
Charlotte Independence2–3
Charlotte Independence2–3W
Greenville Triumph6–0
Greenville Triumph6–0D
Spokane Velocity1–1
Spokane Velocity1–1W
Chattanooga Red Wolves3–2
Chattanooga Red Wolves3–2D
Portland Hearts of Pine2–2
Portland Hearts of Pine2–2Naples (A)W
Corpus Christi1–0
Corpus Christi1–0D
Fort Wayne2–2
Fort Wayne2–2D
One Knoxville0–0
One Knoxville0–0LGreenville Triumph0–4
Greenville Triumph0–4W
Alta2–1
Alta2–1L
Westchester SC2–3
Westchester SC2–3Head to Head · 3 matches
1
Sarasota Paradise
33%
0
Draws
0%
2
Naples
67%
100%
Over 1.5
3/3
33%
Over 2.5
1/3
0%
Over 3.5
0/3
33%
BTTS
1/3
06/06/26Sarasota Paradise
Naples
0–2Sarasota Paradise11/04/26Sarasota Paradise
Naples
2–0Sarasota Paradise18/03/25Naples
Sarasota Paradise
1–2Naples| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlotte Independence | 30 | 19 | 6 | 5 | +28 | 63 |
| 2 |  Union Omaha | 30 | 19 | 4 | 7 | +21 | 61 |
| 3 |  Forward Madison | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | +22 | 52 |
| 4 |  Boise | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | +7 | 52 |
| 5 | One Knoxville | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | +13 | 51 |
| 6 | Spokane Velocity | 28 | 15 | 5 | 8 | +7 | 50 |
| 7 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 30 | 14 | 4 | 12 | +7 | 46 |
| 8 | Fort Wayne | 30 | 12 | 9 | 9 | +9 | 45 |
| 9 | Naples | 30 | 12 | 4 | 14 | -9 | 40 |
| 10 | Westchester SC | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | +3 | 36 |
| 11 | Sarasota Paradise | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | -3 | 36 |
| 12 | Corpus Christi | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Alta | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -7 | 33 |
| 14 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -11 | 31 |
| 15 |  NY Cosmos | 29 | 7 | 4 | 18 | -23 | 25 |
| 16 | Greenville Triumph | 29 | 6 | 6 | 17 | -22 | 24 |
| 17 | Richmond Kickers | 30 | 6 | 5 | 19 | -31 | 23 |
| 18 |  Tormenta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Team Insights
Sarasota Paradise- ●Sarasota Paradise have scored in each of their last 11 matches.
- ●Sarasota Paradise have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 4 matches.
- ●Sarasota Paradise have scored in each of their last 13 home matches.
- ●Sarasota Paradise have been undefeated in their last 4 away matches.
- ●Sarasota Paradise failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 6 away matches.
- ●Sarasota Paradise have scored in each of their last 6 away matches.
- ●Sarasota Paradise failed to keep a clean sheet in 11 of their 14 home matches.
- ●Sarasota Paradise have scored in 13 of their 14 home matches.
- ●Sarasota Paradise failed to keep a clean sheet in 12 of their 15 away matches.
- ●64% of Sarasota Paradise's goals have been scored at home.
Naples- ●Naples have won their last 4 matches.
- ●Naples have kept a clean sheet in each of their last 2 matches.
- ●Naples have scored in each of their last 5 matches.
- ●Naples have won their last 3 home matches.
- ●Naples have been undefeated in their last 3 away matches.
- ●Naples have kept a clean sheet in 7 of their 15 home matches.
- ●Naples failed to keep a clean sheet in 12 of their 15 away matches.
- ●Naples have lost 9 of their 15 away matches.
Season Schedule
Sarasota ParadiseWHRichmond Kickers3–2
Richmond Kickers3–2LHCharlotte Independence2–3
Charlotte Independence2–3WAPortland Hearts of Pine4–1
Portland Hearts of Pine4–1WHGreenville Triumph6–0
Greenville Triumph6–0DAForward Madison1–1
Forward Madison1–1DHSpokane Velocity1–1
Spokane Velocity1–1–AFort Wayne17/10
Fort Wayne17/10–HNaples21/10
Naples21/10–HWestchester SC24/10
Westchester SC24/10NaplesWACorpus Christi1–0
Corpus Christi1–0WHRichmond Kickers2–0
Richmond Kickers2–0WHNY Cosmos2–1
NY Cosmos2–1WHChattanooga Red Wolves1–0
Chattanooga Red Wolves1–0DAFort Wayne2–2
Fort Wayne2–2DAOne Knoxville0–0
One Knoxville0–0–ATormenta16/10
Tormenta16/10–ASarasota Paradise21/10
Sarasota Paradise21/10–HSpokane Velocity24/10
Spokane Velocity24/10Top Scorers
Sarasota ParadiseA. Rosa7 ⚽
S. Roed7 ⚽
J. Bolanos6 ⚽
R. Gall3 ⚽
B. Krueger3 ⚽
E. Terzaghi3 ⚽
NaplesA. Ferrin7 ⚽
C. Garcia5 ⚽
G. Miglietti5 ⚽
D. Bachstein4 ⚽
J. Cisneros3 ⚽
M. Torrellas3 ⚽
Cards Given
Sarasota ParadiseA. Walker7 🟨
A. Sogaard7 🟨
J. Bolanos6 🟨
D. Watters6 🟨
A. Rosa6 🟨
E. Terzaghi4 🟨
NaplesJ. Cisneros9 🟨
C. Garcia7 🟨
M. Torrellas6 🟨
H. Gay6 🟨
A. Ferrin5 🟨
G. Miglietti4 🟨