Fort Wayne vs Sarasota Paradise — USL League One
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Fort Wayne and Sarasota Paradise meet in the USL League One 2026 season on 17 October 2026. Fort Wayne have recorded 12 wins from 35 matches this season (34% win rate), averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 60% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 60%; and clean sheets in 29% of games. Sarasota Paradise have won 33% of their 39 matches, with 1.33 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 59%, Over 2.5 at 59%, and clean sheets at 18%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.63 for Fort Wayne and 1.13 for Sarasota Paradise. The models give Fort Wayne a 49% win probability, with a draw at 26% and an Sarasota Paradise win at 25%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 52% and BTTS at 54%.
Season Statistics
Fort Wayne—
Sarasota Paradise8º
Position
11º
1.50
PPG
1.24
40%
Win %
34%
1.53
Goals / game
1.45
1.23
Conceded / game
1.55
60%
BTTS %
59%
29%
Clean sheet %
18%
60%
Over 2.5 %
59%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Fort Wayne
Home (14)
—
Sarasota Paradise
Away (15)
1.43
PPG
0.87
36%
Win %
20%
1.57
Goals / game
1.00
1.14
Conceded / game
1.67
50%
BTTS %
55%
44%
Clean sheet %
18%
63%
Over 2.5 %
50%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Fort Wayne | Home | Away | Sarasota Paradise | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 83% | 81% | 84% | 72% | 82% | 64% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 46% | 56% | 37% | 38% | 53% | 27% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 20% | 19% | 21% | 13% | 18% | 9% |
| Failed To Score | 17% | 19% | 16% | 28% | 18% | 36% |
Goals Conceded
| Fort Wayne | Home | Away | Sarasota Paradise | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 71% | 56% | 84% | 82% | 82% | 82% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 49% | 50% | 47% | 51% | 59% | 45% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 17% | 13% | 21% | 21% | 18% | 23% |
| Clean Sheets | 29% | 44% | 16% | 18% | 18% | 18% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Fort Wayne | Sarasota Paradise | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 94% | 95% |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 85% |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 37% | 38% |
| Over 4.5 | 11% | 23% |
| BTTS | 60% | 59% |
| BTTS & Win | 11% | 21% |
| BTTS & Draw | 23% | 13% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 11% | 8% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Fort Wayne | Sarasota Paradise | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 43% | 29% |
| Draw 1st Half | 37% | 42% |
| Loss 1st Half | 20% | 29% |
| Scored 1st Half | 57% | 42% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 40% | 39% |
| Win 2nd Half | 29% | 26% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 34% | 18% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 37% | 55% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 49% | 50% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 57% | 71% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 77% | 63% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 43% | 39% |
Recent Venue Form
Fort Wayne (H)D
Forward Madison0–0
Forward Madison0–0D
Naples2–2
Naples2–2L
One Knoxville2–3
One Knoxville2–3L
NY Cosmos2–4
NY Cosmos2–4W
Richmond Kickers2–0
Richmond Kickers2–0L
Chattanooga Red Wolves1–2
Chattanooga Red Wolves1–2Sarasota Paradise (A)W
Portland Hearts of Pine4–1
Portland Hearts of Pine4–1DForward Madison1–1
Forward Madison1–1WNY Cosmos2–1
NY Cosmos2–1D
Union Omaha1–1
Union Omaha1–1L
Charlotte Independence1–3
Charlotte Independence1–3LOne Knoxville1–2
One Knoxville1–2Head to Head · 1 matches
0
Fort Wayne
0%
1
Draws
100%
0
Sarasota Paradise
0%
100%
Over 1.5
1/1
100%
Over 2.5
1/1
100%
Over 3.5
1/1
100%
BTTS
1/1
14/03/26Fort Wayne
Sarasota Paradise
2–2Fort Wayne| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlotte Independence | 30 | 19 | 6 | 5 | +28 | 63 |
| 2 | Union Omaha | 30 | 19 | 4 | 7 | +21 | 61 |
| 3 | Forward Madison | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | +22 | 52 |
| 4 |  Boise | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | +7 | 52 |
| 5 | One Knoxville | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | +13 | 51 |
| 6 |  Spokane Velocity | 28 | 15 | 5 | 8 | +7 | 50 |
| 7 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 30 | 14 | 4 | 12 | +7 | 46 |
| 8 | Fort Wayne | 30 | 12 | 9 | 9 | +9 | 45 |
| 9 | Naples | 30 | 12 | 4 | 14 | -9 | 40 |
| 10 |  Westchester SC | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | +3 | 36 |
| 11 | Sarasota Paradise | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | -3 | 36 |
| 12 |  Corpus Christi | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 |  Alta | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -7 | 33 |
| 14 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -11 | 31 |
| 15 | NY Cosmos | 29 | 7 | 4 | 18 | -23 | 25 |
| 16 |  Greenville Triumph | 29 | 6 | 6 | 17 | -22 | 24 |
| 17 | Richmond Kickers | 30 | 6 | 5 | 19 | -31 | 23 |
| 18 |  Tormenta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Team Insights
Fort Wayne- ●Fort Wayne have won their last 2 matches.
- ●Fort Wayne have failed to win in their last 4 home matches.
- ●Fort Wayne have won their last 2 away matches.
- ●Fort Wayne have scored in each of their last 5 away matches.
- ●Fort Wayne have kept a clean sheet in 7 of their 14 home matches.
- ●Fort Wayne failed to keep a clean sheet in 13 of their 16 away matches.
- ●Fort Wayne have won 7 of their 16 away matches.
- ●Fort Wayne have scored in 13 of their 16 away matches.
Sarasota Paradise- ●Sarasota Paradise have scored in each of their last 11 matches.
- ●Sarasota Paradise have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 4 matches.
- ●Sarasota Paradise have scored in each of their last 13 home matches.
- ●Sarasota Paradise have been undefeated in their last 4 away matches.
- ●Sarasota Paradise failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 6 away matches.
- ●Sarasota Paradise have scored in each of their last 6 away matches.
- ●Sarasota Paradise failed to keep a clean sheet in 11 of their 14 home matches.
- ●Sarasota Paradise have scored in 13 of their 14 home matches.
- ●Sarasota Paradise failed to keep a clean sheet in 12 of their 15 away matches.
- ●64% of Sarasota Paradise's goals have been scored at home.
Season Schedule
Fort WayneWAUnion Omaha1–0
Union Omaha1–0WACorpus Christi3–1
Corpus Christi3–1DHForward Madison0–0
Forward Madison0–0DACharlotte Independence1–1
Charlotte Independence1–1DHNaples2–2
Naples2–2LHOne Knoxville2–3
One Knoxville2–3–HSarasota Paradise17/10
Sarasota Paradise17/10–HBoise24/10
Boise24/10Sarasota ParadiseWHRichmond Kickers3–2
Richmond Kickers3–2LHCharlotte Independence2–3
Charlotte Independence2–3WAPortland Hearts of Pine4–1
Portland Hearts of Pine4–1WHGreenville Triumph6–0
Greenville Triumph6–0DAForward Madison1–1
Forward Madison1–1DHSpokane Velocity1–1
Spokane Velocity1–1–AFort Wayne17/10
Fort Wayne17/10–HNaples21/10
Naples21/10–HWestchester SC24/10
Westchester SC24/10Top Scorers
Fort WayneT. Healy12 ⚽
R. Becher10 ⚽
L. Ricol9 ⚽
T. Dias4 ⚽
J. Thomas4 ⚽
K. Gafar3 ⚽
Sarasota ParadiseA. Rosa7 ⚽
S. Roed7 ⚽
J. Bolanos6 ⚽
R. Gall3 ⚽
B. Krueger3 ⚽
E. Terzaghi3 ⚽
Cards Given
Fort WayneT. Dias12 🟨
J. Jordan11 🟨
E. Nieto8 🟨
J. Armas8 🟨
M. Rempel7 🟨
J. Solis5 🟨
Sarasota ParadiseA. Walker7 🟨
A. Sogaard7 🟨
J. Bolanos6 🟨
D. Watters6 🟨
A. Rosa6 🟨
E. Terzaghi4 🟨