Nõmme United vs Vaprus — Meistriliiga
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Nõmme United and Vaprus meet in the Meistriliiga 2026 season on 24 October 2026. Nõmme United have recorded 16 wins from 39 matches this season (41% win rate), averaging 2.15 goals scored and 2.28 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 77% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 90%; and clean sheets in 8% of games. Vaprus have won 38% of their 37 matches, with 1.81 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 62%, Over 2.5 at 70%, and clean sheets at 22%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 2.13 for Nõmme United and 1.57 for Vaprus. The models give Nõmme United a 46% win probability, with a draw at 24% and an Vaprus win at 31%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 71% and BTTS at 70%.
Season Statistics
Nõmme United—
Vaprus9º
Position
7º
0.97
PPG
1.21
31%
Win %
36%
1.62
Goals / game
1.32
2.34
Conceded / game
1.93
77%
BTTS %
62%
8%
Clean sheet %
22%
90%
Over 2.5 %
70%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Nõmme United
Home (15)
—
Vaprus
Away (14)
0.80
PPG
0.79
27%
Win %
21%
1.93
Goals / game
0.93
2.20
Conceded / game
2.29
75%
BTTS %
63%
10%
Clean sheet %
21%
95%
Over 2.5 %
79%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Nõmme United | Home | Away | Vaprus | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 85% | 85% | 84% | 79% | 78% | 80% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 51% | 50% | 53% | 45% | 44% | 45% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 31% | 30% | 32% | 21% | 28% | 15% |
| Failed To Score | 15% | 15% | 16% | 21% | 22% | 20% |
Goals Conceded
| Nõmme United | Home | Away | Vaprus | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 92% | 90% | 95% | 79% | 78% | 80% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 64% | 70% | 58% | 63% | 61% | 65% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 41% | 40% | 42% | 29% | 17% | 40% |
| Clean Sheets | 8% | 10% | 5% | 21% | 22% | 20% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Nõmme United | Vaprus | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 95% |
| Over 1.5 | 95% | 87% |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 71% |
| Over 3.5 | 62% | 53% |
| Over 4.5 | 46% | 34% |
| BTTS | 77% | 63% |
| BTTS & Win | 33% | 21% |
| BTTS & Draw | 5% | 8% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 74% | 61% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 15% | 11% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Nõmme United | Vaprus | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 31% | 26% |
| Draw 1st Half | 26% | 42% |
| Loss 1st Half | 44% | 32% |
| Scored 1st Half | 51% | 58% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 67% | 55% |
| Win 2nd Half | 36% | 34% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 15% | 21% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 49% | 45% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 59% | 55% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 74% | 63% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 90% | 76% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 59% | 61% |
Recent Venue Form
Nõmme United (H)L
Paide1–3
Paide1–3L
Flora Tallinn2–3
Flora Tallinn2–3WVaprus3–2
Vaprus3–2L
Laagri1–2
Laagri1–2L
Tammeka0–1
Tammeka0–1L
Trans Narva1–2
Trans Narva1–2Vaprus (A)LFlora Tallinn2–3
Flora Tallinn2–3LPaide0–2
Paide0–2L
FC Levadia Tallinn0–4
FC Levadia Tallinn0–4LNõmme United2–3
Nõmme United2–3D
Kuressaare2–2
Kuressaare2–2L
Kalju Nomme1–3
Kalju Nomme1–3Head to Head · 13 matches
4
Nõmme United
31%
1
Draws
8%
8
Vaprus
62%
85%
Over 1.5
11/13
69%
Over 2.5
9/13
46%
Over 3.5
6/13
54%
BTTS
7/13
05/09/26Nõmme United
Vaprus
1–0Nõmme United02/09/26Vaprus
Nõmme United
3–2Vaprus02/05/26Nõmme United
Vaprus
2–3Nõmme United14/03/26Vaprus
Nõmme United
7–1Vaprus12/02/25Nõmme United
Vaprus
7–0Nõmme United19/10/24Vaprus
Nõmme United
0–2Vaprus13/07/24Nõmme United
Vaprus
2–0Nõmme United31/05/24Vaprus
Nõmme United
2–1Vaprus26/04/24Nõmme United
Vaprus
2–1Nõmme United25/11/20Nõmme United
Vaprus
4–1Nõmme United23/08/20Vaprus
Nõmme United
0–3Vaprus06/08/20Nõmme United
Vaprus
1–0Nõmme United02/07/20Vaprus
Nõmme United
2–2Vaprus| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 28 | 22 | 5 | 1 | +60 | 71 |
| 2 | Flora Tallinn | 28 | 17 | 1 | 10 | +19 | 52 |
| 3 | Paide | 29 | 15 | 6 | 8 | +12 | 51 |
| 4 | Kalju Nomme | 28 | 14 | 5 | 9 | +23 | 47 |
| 5 | Tammeka | 28 | 14 | 2 | 12 | -8 | 44 |
| 6 | Laagri | 29 | 11 | 2 | 16 | -7 | 35 |
| 7 | Vaprus | 28 | 10 | 4 | 14 | -17 | 34 |
| 8 | Kuressaare | 29 | 8 | 5 | 16 | -18 | 29 |
| 9 | Nõmme United | 29 | 9 | 1 | 19 | -21 | 28 |
| 10 | Trans Narva | 28 | 5 | 3 | 20 | -43 | 18 |
Team Insights
Nõmme United- ●Nõmme United failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 29 matches.
- ●Nõmme United have failed to win in their last 5 home matches.
- ●Nõmme United have lost their last 5 home matches.
- ●Nõmme United failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 15 home matches.
- ●Nõmme United failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 14 away matches.
- ●Nõmme United failed to keep a clean sheet in 15 of their 15 home matches.
- ●Nõmme United have lost 11 of their 15 home matches.
- ●Nõmme United have scored in 13 of their 15 home matches.
- ●Nõmme United failed to keep a clean sheet in 14 of their 14 away matches.
- ●Nõmme United have won 5 of their 14 away matches.
- ●Nõmme United have scored in 11 of their 14 away matches.
- ●62% of Nõmme United's goals have been scored at home.
Vaprus- ●Vaprus have failed to win in their last 3 matches.
- ●Vaprus have lost their last 3 matches.
- ●Vaprus have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 4 matches.
- ●Vaprus have won their last 2 home matches.
- ●Vaprus have scored in each of their last 11 home matches.
- ●Vaprus have lost their last 3 away matches.
- ●Vaprus failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 7 away matches.
- ●Vaprus have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 7 away matches.
- ●Vaprus failed to keep a clean sheet in 10 of their 14 home matches.
- ●Vaprus have scored in 12 of their 14 home matches.
- ●Vaprus failed to keep a clean sheet in 13 of their 15 away matches.
- ●Vaprus have lost 10 of their 15 away matches.
- ●Vaprus have scored in 11 of their 15 away matches.
- ●62% of Vaprus's goals have been scored at home.
Season Schedule
Nõmme UnitedLHPaide1–3
Paide1–3LHFlora Tallinn2–3
Flora Tallinn2–3WAKalju Nomme2–1
Kalju Nomme2–1LAVaprus0–1
Vaprus0–1LHLaagri1–2
Laagri1–2LAPaide1–4
Paide1–4–ATammeka10/10
Tammeka10/10–ALaagri13/10
Laagri13/10–HKalju Nomme17/10
Kalju Nomme17/10VaprusLAFlora Tallinn2–3
Flora Tallinn2–3LAPaide0–2
Paide0–2LAFC Levadia Tallinn0–4
FC Levadia Tallinn0–4WHLaagri3–2
Laagri3–2WHNõmme United1–0
Nõmme United1–0DAKuressaare2–2
Kuressaare2–2–HTrans Narva10/10
Trans Narva10/10–HKalju Nomme13/10
Kalju Nomme13/10–ALaagri18/10
Laagri18/10Top Scorers
Nõmme United16 ⚽
Z. Beglarishvili11 ⚽
O. Dacosta7 ⚽
B. Chisala5 ⚽
I. Krasnov5 ⚽
K. Matas5 ⚽
VaprusH. Valja11 ⚽
M. Limberg9 ⚽
S. Viidas6 ⚽
T. Pajo6 ⚽
R. Orm4 ⚽
M. Lepik4 ⚽
Cards Given
Nõmme UnitedH. Jarvelaid7 🟨
K. Matas5 🟨
I. Krasnov5 🟨
G. Kabal4 🟨
A. Frolov4 🟨
A. Alteberg3 🟨
VaprusJ. Poder8 🟨
T. Pajo5 🟨
S. Kapper5 🟨
M. Limberg5 🟨
K. Kauber5 🟨
K. Aloe4 🟨