Vaprus vs Kuressaare — Meistriliiga
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Pärnu Rannastaadion·Pärnu·Estonia·2,495
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Vaprus and Kuressaare meet in the Meistriliiga 2026 season on 28 October 2026. Vaprus have recorded 14 wins from 38 matches this season (37% win rate), averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 63% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 71%; and clean sheets in 21% of games. Kuressaare have won 31% of their 36 matches, with 1.53 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 56%, Over 2.5 at 64%, and clean sheets at 14%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.78 for Vaprus and 1.27 for Kuressaare. The models give Vaprus a 51% win probability, with a draw at 25% and an Kuressaare win at 25%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 59% and BTTS at 60%.
Season Statistics
Vaprus—
Kuressaare7º
Position
8º
1.17
PPG
1.00
34%
Win %
28%
1.34
Goals / game
1.07
1.97
Conceded / game
1.69
63%
BTTS %
56%
21%
Clean sheet %
14%
71%
Over 2.5 %
64%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Vaprus
Home (14)
—
Kuressaare
Away (15)
1.64
PPG
0.73
50%
Win %
20%
1.71
Goals / game
0.87
1.57
Conceded / game
1.80
61%
BTTS %
50%
22%
Clean sheet %
11%
61%
Over 2.5 %
61%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Vaprus | Home | Away | Kuressaare | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 79% | 78% | 80% | 61% | 67% | 56% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 45% | 44% | 45% | 47% | 56% | 39% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 21% | 28% | 15% | 25% | 33% | 17% |
| Failed To Score | 21% | 22% | 20% | 39% | 33% | 44% |
Goals Conceded
| Vaprus | Home | Away | Kuressaare | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 79% | 78% | 80% | 86% | 83% | 89% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 63% | 61% | 65% | 56% | 56% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 29% | 17% | 40% | 22% | 17% | 28% |
| Clean Sheets | 21% | 22% | 20% | 14% | 17% | 11% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Vaprus | Kuressaare | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 95% | 92% |
| Over 1.5 | 87% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 53% | 47% |
| Over 4.5 | 34% | 31% |
| BTTS | 63% | 56% |
| BTTS & Win | 21% | 25% |
| BTTS & Draw | 8% | 11% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 61% | 53% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 11% | 11% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Vaprus | Kuressaare | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 26% | 39% |
| Draw 1st Half | 42% | 28% |
| Loss 1st Half | 32% | 33% |
| Scored 1st Half | 58% | 50% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 55% | 50% |
| Win 2nd Half | 34% | 19% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 21% | 31% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 45% | 50% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 55% | 42% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 63% | 69% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 76% | 78% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 61% | 39% |
Recent Venue Form
Vaprus (H)W
Laagri3–2
Laagri3–2W
Nõmme United1–0
Nõmme United1–0L
Flora Tallinn1–2
Flora Tallinn1–2D
FC Levadia Tallinn1–1
FC Levadia Tallinn1–1W
Tammeka5–1
Tammeka5–1WKuressaare1–0
Kuressaare1–0Kuressaare (A)DLaagri0–0
Laagri0–0LFC Levadia Tallinn0–4
FC Levadia Tallinn0–4LTammeka0–1
Tammeka0–1WFlora Tallinn3–2
Flora Tallinn3–2W
Kristiine JK8–0
Kristiine JK8–0L
Paide0–1
Paide0–1Head to Head · 26 matches
11
Vaprus
42%
4
Draws
15%
11
Kuressaare
42%
73%
Over 1.5
19/26
65%
Over 2.5
17/26
42%
Over 3.5
11/26
62%
BTTS
16/26
29/08/26Vaprus
Kuressaare
2–2Vaprus26/06/26Kuressaare
Vaprus
1–0Kuressaare21/04/26Vaprus
Kuressaare
0–1Vaprus31/01/26Kuressaare
Vaprus
9–2Kuressaare21/10/25Kuressaare
Vaprus
0–1Kuressaare20/07/25Vaprus
Kuressaare
2–1Vaprus01/06/25Kuressaare
Vaprus
2–1Kuressaare18/04/25Vaprus
Kuressaare
1–0Vaprus01/02/25Vaprus
Kuressaare
0–2Vaprus06/10/24Kuressaare
Vaprus
3–1Kuressaare28/07/24Vaprus
Kuressaare
1–1Vaprus28/05/24Vaprus
Kuressaare
2–2Vaprus17/03/24Kuressaare
Vaprus
3–2Kuressaare11/11/23Vaprus
Kuressaare
1–0Vaprus17/09/23Kuressaare
Vaprus
3–1Kuressaare03/05/23Kuressaare
Vaprus
1–2Kuressaare19/03/23Vaprus
Kuressaare
1–2Vaprus06/11/22Vaprus
Kuressaare
1–0Vaprus06/08/22Kuressaare
Vaprus
0–1Kuressaare25/07/22Vaprus
Kuressaare
2–2Vaprus| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 29 | 22 | 6 | 1 | +60 | 72 |
| 2 | Flora Tallinn | 29 | 18 | 1 | 10 | +20 | 55 |
| 3 | Paide | 29 | 15 | 6 | 8 | +12 | 51 |
| 4 |  Kalju Nomme | 29 | 15 | 5 | 9 | +25 | 50 |
| 5 | Tammeka | 29 | 14 | 2 | 13 | -10 | 44 |
| 6 | Laagri | 29 | 11 | 2 | 16 | -7 | 35 |
| 7 | Vaprus | 29 | 10 | 4 | 15 | -18 | 34 |
| 8 | Kuressaare | 29 | 8 | 5 | 16 | -18 | 29 |
| 9 | Nõmme United | 29 | 9 | 1 | 19 | -21 | 28 |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 29 | 5 | 4 | 20 | -43 | 19 |
Team Insights
Vaprus- ●Vaprus have failed to win in their last 3 matches.
- ●Vaprus have lost their last 3 matches.
- ●Vaprus have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 4 matches.
- ●Vaprus have won their last 2 home matches.
- ●Vaprus have scored in each of their last 11 home matches.
- ●Vaprus have lost their last 3 away matches.
- ●Vaprus failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 7 away matches.
- ●Vaprus have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 7 away matches.
- ●Vaprus failed to keep a clean sheet in 10 of their 14 home matches.
- ●Vaprus have scored in 12 of their 14 home matches.
- ●Vaprus failed to keep a clean sheet in 13 of their 15 away matches.
- ●Vaprus have lost 10 of their 15 away matches.
- ●Vaprus have scored in 11 of their 15 away matches.
- ●62% of Vaprus's goals have been scored at home.
Kuressaare- ●Kuressaare have failed to win in their last 3 matches.
- ●Kuressaare have scored in each of their last 4 home matches.
- ●Kuressaare failed to keep a clean sheet in 12 of their 14 home matches.
- ●Kuressaare failed to keep a clean sheet in 14 of their 15 away matches.
- ●Kuressaare have lost 10 of their 15 away matches.
Season Schedule
VaprusLAFlora Tallinn2–3
Flora Tallinn2–3LAPaide0–2
Paide0–2LAFC Levadia Tallinn0–4
FC Levadia Tallinn0–4WHLaagri3–2
Laagri3–2WHNõmme United1–0
Nõmme United1–0DAKuressaare2–2
Kuressaare2–2–HTrans Narva10/10
Trans Narva10/10–HKalju Nomme13/10
Kalju Nomme13/10–ALaagri18/10
Laagri18/10KuressaareDALaagri0–0
Laagri0–0LHTammeka1–3
Tammeka1–3LAFC Levadia Tallinn0–4
FC Levadia Tallinn0–4WHTrans Narva3–1
Trans Narva3–1DHVaprus2–2
Vaprus2–2LATammeka0–1
Tammeka0–1–HFlora Tallinn11/10
Flora Tallinn11/10–ATrans Narva14/10
Trans Narva14/10–HFC Levadia Tallinn18/10
FC Levadia Tallinn18/10Top Scorers
VaprusH. Valja11 ⚽
M. Limberg9 ⚽
S. Viidas6 ⚽
T. Pajo6 ⚽
R. Orm4 ⚽
M. Lepik4 ⚽
KuressaareA. Kivi10 ⚽
E. Demidov8 ⚽
T. Jurisoo7 ⚽
6 ⚽
A. Visse3 ⚽
J. Vahermagi3 ⚽
Cards Given
VaprusJ. Poder8 🟨
T. Pajo5 🟨
S. Kapper5 🟨
M. Limberg5 🟨
K. Kauber5 🟨
K. Aloe4 🟨
KuressaareM. Lukka5 🟨
J. Vahermagi5 🟨
D. Andreas4 🟨
E. Demidov3 🟨
K. Nomm3 🟨
S. Sinilaid3 🟨