Elva vs Tallinna Kalev — Esiliiga A
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Elva and Tallinna Kalev meet in the Esiliiga A 2026 season on 1 November 2026. Elva have recorded 21 wins from 39 matches this season (54% win rate), averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 56% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 69%; and clean sheets in 28% of games. Tallinna Kalev have won 41% of their 37 matches, with 2.14 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 65%, Over 2.5 at 78%, and clean sheets at 19%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.82 for Elva and 1.66 for Tallinna Kalev. The models give Elva a 47% win probability, with a draw at 24% and an Tallinna Kalev win at 29%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 67% and BTTS at 68%.
Season Statistics
Elva—
Tallinna Kalev4º
Position
7º
1.50
PPG
1.25
45%
Win %
35%
1.85
Goals / game
2.00
1.65
Conceded / game
2.00
56%
BTTS %
65%
28%
Clean sheet %
19%
69%
Over 2.5 %
78%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Elva
Home (10)
—
Tallinna Kalev
Away (10)
1.50
PPG
0.80
50%
Win %
20%
1.60
Goals / game
1.40
1.90
Conceded / game
2.00
57%
BTTS %
58%
29%
Clean sheet %
21%
62%
Over 2.5 %
79%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Elva | Home | Away | Tallinna Kalev | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 82% | 81% | 83% | 84% | 89% | 79% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 59% | 52% | 67% | 51% | 56% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 33% | 24% | 44% | 32% | 39% | 26% |
| Failed To Score | 18% | 19% | 17% | 16% | 11% | 21% |
Goals Conceded
| Elva | Home | Away | Tallinna Kalev | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 72% | 71% | 72% | 81% | 83% | 79% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 38% | 38% | 39% | 49% | 44% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 23% | 29% | 17% | 35% | 33% | 37% |
| Clean Sheets | 28% | 29% | 28% | 19% | 17% | 21% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Elva | Tallinna Kalev | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 97% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 97% |
| Over 2.5 | 69% | 78% |
| Over 3.5 | 46% | 54% |
| Over 4.5 | 26% | 32% |
| BTTS | 56% | 65% |
| BTTS & Win | 28% | 22% |
| BTTS & Draw | 13% | 19% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 51% | 54% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 18% | 24% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Elva | Tallinna Kalev | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 41% | 38% |
| Draw 1st Half | 32% | 27% |
| Loss 1st Half | 27% | 35% |
| Scored 1st Half | 57% | 59% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 41% | 59% |
| Win 2nd Half | 41% | 38% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 38% | 19% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 22% | 43% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 65% | 62% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 43% | 62% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 76% | 92% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 46% | 57% |
Recent Venue Form
Elva (H)D
FC Tallinn1–1
FC Tallinn1–1W
Nõmme Kalju II1–0
Nõmme Kalju II1–0D
Flora II0–0
Flora II0–0W
Maardu1–0
Maardu1–0W
Joker3–0
Joker3–0W
Tartu Welco2–1
Tartu Welco2–1Tallinna Kalev (A)L
Nõmme United II1–2
Nõmme United II1–2LFlora II0–5
Flora II0–5WNõmme Kalju II3–0
Nõmme Kalju II3–0W
Viimsi2–1
Viimsi2–1W
Tammeka Tartu U198–0
Tammeka Tartu U198–0L
FCI Levadia II2–3
FCI Levadia II2–3Head to Head · 12 matches
1
Elva
8%
1
Draws
8%
10
Tallinna Kalev
83%
67%
Over 1.5
8/12
58%
Over 2.5
7/12
33%
Over 3.5
4/12
33%
BTTS
4/12
15/08/26Elva
Tallinna Kalev
1–0Elva24/05/26Tallinna Kalev
Elva
3–1Tallinna Kalev09/04/26Elva
Tallinna Kalev
2–1Elva30/10/25Tallinna Kalev
Elva
1–2Tallinna Kalev29/01/23Tallinna Kalev
Elva
0–0Tallinna Kalev29/09/21Tallinna Kalev
Elva
1–2Tallinna Kalev14/07/21Elva
Tallinna Kalev
1–0Elva30/05/21Tallinna Kalev
Elva
0–4Tallinna Kalev30/09/17Tallinna Kalev
Elva
0–5Tallinna Kalev10/08/17Elva
Tallinna Kalev
8–0Elva15/06/17Tallinna Kalev
Elva
0–1Tallinna Kalev16/03/17Elva
Tallinna Kalev
2–0Elva| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tartu Welco | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | +42 | 62 |
| 2 | Viimsi | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | +25 | 50 |
| 3 | Flora II | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | +19 | 48 |
| 4 | Elva | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | +3 | 48 |
| 5 | FCI Levadia II | 29 | 13 | 2 | 14 | +5 | 41 |
| 6 | Maardu | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | -12 | 41 |
| 7 | Tallinna Kalev | 29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | -3 | 37 |
| 8 | Nõmme United II | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | -13 | 33 |
| 9 | FC Tallinn | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -26 | 32 |
| 10 | Nõmme Kalju II | 29 | 6 | 4 | 19 | -40 | 22 |
Team Insights
Elva- ●Elva have been undefeated in their last 5 home matches.
- ●Elva failed to keep a clean sheet in 10 of their 15 home matches.
- ●Elva failed to keep a clean sheet in 12 of their 15 away matches.
- ●Elva have won 6 of their 15 away matches.
- ●Elva have scored in 12 of their 15 away matches.
Tallinna Kalev- ●Tallinna Kalev have failed to win in their last 5 matches.
- ●Tallinna Kalev failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 matches.
- ●Tallinna Kalev have scored in each of their last 9 home matches.
- ●Tallinna Kalev have lost their last 2 away matches.
- ●Tallinna Kalev failed to keep a clean sheet in 13 of their 15 home matches.
- ●Tallinna Kalev have scored in 14 of their 15 home matches.
- ●Tallinna Kalev failed to keep a clean sheet in 12 of their 14 away matches.
- ●Tallinna Kalev have scored in 11 of their 14 away matches.
- ●62% of Tallinna Kalev's goals have been scored at home.
Season Schedule
ElvaDHFC Tallinn1–1
FC Tallinn1–1WAFlora II2–1
Flora II2–1LAViimsi0–5
Viimsi0–5WHNõmme Kalju II1–0
Nõmme Kalju II1–0WANõmme United II1–0
Nõmme United II1–0DHFlora II0–0
Flora II0–0–ATartu Welco09/10
Tartu Welco09/10–ANõmme Kalju II18/10
Nõmme Kalju II18/10–HFCI Levadia II25/10
FCI Levadia II25/10Tallinna KalevDHFlora II2–2
Flora II2–2LANõmme United II1–2
Nõmme United II1–2DHTartu Welco1–1
Tartu Welco1–1LAFlora II0–5
Flora II0–5LHMaardu1–3
Maardu1–3WANõmme Kalju II3–0
Nõmme Kalju II3–0–HViimsi10/10
Viimsi10/10–HFCI Levadia II19/10
FCI Levadia II19/10–ATartu Welco23/10
Tartu Welco23/10Top Scorers
Elva10 ⚽
J. Mbuthia9 ⚽
K. Burov5 ⚽
K. Haabma4 ⚽
R. Neltsas4 ⚽
K. Poldsaar3 ⚽
Tallinna KalevR. Ilves17 ⚽
8 ⚽
A. Gusarov8 ⚽
M. Tomberg8 ⚽
O. De Pizzol7 ⚽
V. Mihhailov6 ⚽
Cards Given
ElvaD. Laaneots2 🟨
G. Lani2 🟨
Tallinna KalevA. Sikk1 🟨
A. Timoska1 🟨
D. Petrunin1 🟨
D. Sal-Al-Saller1 🟨
S. Kirsipuu1 🟨