Tartu Welco vs Tallinna Kalev — Esiliiga A
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Tartu Welco and Tallinna Kalev meet in the Esiliiga A 2026 season on 23 October 2026. Tartu Welco have recorded 19 wins from 35 matches this season (54% win rate), averaging 2.60 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 63% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 77%; and clean sheets in 23% of games. Tallinna Kalev have won 42% of their 36 matches, with 2.14 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 64%, Over 2.5 at 78%, and clean sheets at 19%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 2.45 for Tartu Welco and 1.65 for Tallinna Kalev. The models give Tartu Welco a 58% win probability, with a draw at 21% and an Tallinna Kalev win at 21%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 77% and BTTS at 74%.
Season Statistics
Tartu Welco—
Tallinna Kalev1º
Position
7º
2.25
PPG
1.25
70%
Win %
35%
3.10
Goals / game
2.00
1.30
Conceded / game
2.00
63%
BTTS %
64%
23%
Clean sheet %
19%
77%
Over 2.5 %
78%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Tartu Welco
Home (10)
—
Tallinna Kalev
Away (10)
2.10
PPG
0.80
60%
Win %
20%
3.20
Goals / game
1.40
1.70
Conceded / game
2.00
67%
BTTS %
58%
20%
Clean sheet %
21%
93%
Over 2.5 %
79%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Tartu Welco | Home | Away | Tallinna Kalev | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 83% | 87% | 80% | 83% | 88% | 79% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 63% | 80% | 50% | 50% | 53% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 49% | 67% | 35% | 33% | 41% | 26% |
| Failed To Score | 17% | 13% | 20% | 17% | 12% | 21% |
Goals Conceded
| Tartu Welco | Home | Away | Tallinna Kalev | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 77% | 80% | 75% | 81% | 82% | 79% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 54% | 67% | 45% | 47% | 41% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 20% | 27% | 15% | 36% | 35% | 37% |
| Clean Sheets | 23% | 20% | 25% | 19% | 18% | 21% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Tartu Welco | Tallinna Kalev | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 97% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 94% | 97% |
| Over 2.5 | 77% | 78% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 53% |
| Over 4.5 | 40% | 33% |
| BTTS | 63% | 64% |
| BTTS & Win | 34% | 22% |
| BTTS & Draw | 14% | 17% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 60% | 53% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 17% | 25% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Tartu Welco | Tallinna Kalev | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 49% | 36% |
| Draw 1st Half | 17% | 28% |
| Loss 1st Half | 34% | 36% |
| Scored 1st Half | 60% | 58% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 57% | 61% |
| Win 2nd Half | 57% | 39% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 20% | 19% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 23% | 42% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 69% | 61% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 54% | 61% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 89% | 92% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 49% | 58% |
Recent Venue Form
Tartu Welco (H)W
Nõmme Kalju II3–0
Nõmme Kalju II3–0L
Viimsi1–3
Viimsi1–3W
FCI Levadia II4–2
FCI Levadia II4–2W
Flora II2–1
Flora II2–1L
FC Tallinn0–2
FC Tallinn0–2DViimsi2–2
Viimsi2–2Tallinna Kalev (A)L
Nõmme United II1–2
Nõmme United II1–2LFlora II0–5
Flora II0–5WNõmme Kalju II3–0
Nõmme Kalju II3–0WViimsi2–1
Viimsi2–1W
Tammeka Tartu U198–0
Tammeka Tartu U198–0LFCI Levadia II2–3
FCI Levadia II2–3Head to Head · 11 matches
1
Tartu Welco
9%
1
Draws
9%
9
Tallinna Kalev
82%
91%
Over 1.5
10/11
73%
Over 2.5
8/11
36%
Over 3.5
4/11
45%
BTTS
5/11
05/09/26Tartu Welco
Tallinna Kalev
1–1Tartu Welco09/05/26Tartu Welco
Tallinna Kalev
2–0Tartu Welco05/03/26Tallinna Kalev
Tartu Welco
3–0Tallinna Kalev15/07/23Tallinna Kalev
Tartu Welco
0–4Tallinna Kalev31/10/21Tallinna Kalev
Tartu Welco
2–3Tallinna Kalev12/08/21Tallinna Kalev
Tartu Welco
0–1Tallinna Kalev27/05/21Tartu Welco
Tallinna Kalev
2–1Tartu Welco26/10/17Tartu Welco
Tallinna Kalev
4–1Tartu Welco23/07/17Tallinna Kalev
Tartu Welco
0–3Tallinna Kalev13/05/17Tartu Welco
Tallinna Kalev
3–0Tartu Welco26/04/17Tallinna Kalev
Tartu Welco
1–5Tallinna Kalev| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tartu Welco | 28 | 17 | 5 | 6 | +37 | 56 |
| 2 | Viimsi | 29 | 15 | 5 | 9 | +27 | 50 |
| 3 | Flora II | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | +19 | 47 |
| 4 |  Elva | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | +3 | 47 |
| 5 | FCI Levadia II | 29 | 13 | 2 | 14 | +5 | 41 |
| 6 |  Maardu | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | -12 | 41 |
| 7 | Tallinna Kalev | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | -3 | 36 |
| 8 | Nõmme United II | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | -13 | 33 |
| 9 | FC Tallinn | 29 | 8 | 7 | 14 | -26 | 31 |
| 10 | Nõmme Kalju II | 28 | 6 | 4 | 18 | -37 | 22 |
Team Insights
Tartu Welco- ●Tartu Welco have been undefeated in their last 3 matches.
- ●Tartu Welco have kept a clean sheet in each of their last 2 matches.
- ●Tartu Welco have scored in each of their last 4 home matches.
- ●Tartu Welco have been undefeated in their last 3 away matches.
- ●Tartu Welco failed to keep a clean sheet in 11 of their 14 home matches.
- ●Tartu Welco have scored in 13 of their 14 home matches.
- ●Tartu Welco failed to keep a clean sheet in 11 of their 15 away matches.
- ●Tartu Welco have won 9 of their 15 away matches.
- ●Tartu Welco have scored in 12 of their 15 away matches.
Tallinna Kalev- ●Tallinna Kalev have failed to win in their last 4 matches.
- ●Tallinna Kalev have scored in each of their last 8 home matches.
- ●Tallinna Kalev have lost their last 2 away matches.
- ●Tallinna Kalev failed to keep a clean sheet in 12 of their 14 home matches.
- ●Tallinna Kalev have scored in 13 of their 14 home matches.
- ●Tallinna Kalev failed to keep a clean sheet in 12 of their 14 away matches.
- ●Tallinna Kalev have scored in 11 of their 14 away matches.
Season Schedule
Tartu WelcoWHNõmme Kalju II3–0
Nõmme Kalju II3–0DAFCI Levadia II0–0
FCI Levadia II0–0DATallinna Kalev1–1
Tallinna Kalev1–1LHViimsi1–3
Viimsi1–3WANõmme Kalju II4–2
Nõmme Kalju II4–2WHFCI Levadia II4–2
FCI Levadia II4–2–AViimsi17/09
Viimsi17/09–HElva09/10
Elva09/10–AFC Tallinn15/10
FC Tallinn15/10Tallinna KalevLANõmme United II1–2
Nõmme United II1–2DHTartu Welco1–1
Tartu Welco1–1LAFlora II0–5
Flora II0–5LHMaardu1–3
Maardu1–3WANõmme Kalju II3–0
Nõmme Kalju II3–0WHElva1–0
Elva1–0–HFlora II18/09
Flora II18/09–HViimsi10/10
Viimsi10/10–HFCI Levadia II19/10
FCI Levadia II19/10Top Scorers
Tartu WelcoK. Laasner29 ⚽
R. Roots9 ⚽
M. Mugra9 ⚽
E. Mottus6 ⚽
H. Kablik5 ⚽
M. Magi5 ⚽
Tallinna KalevR. Ilves16 ⚽
8 ⚽
A. Gusarov8 ⚽
M. Tomberg8 ⚽
V. Mihhailov6 ⚽
O. De Pizzol6 ⚽
Cards Given
Tartu WelcoTallinna KalevA. Sikk1 🟨
A. Timoska1 🟨
D. Petrunin1 🟨
D. Sal-Al-Saller1 🟨
S. Kirsipuu1 🟨