Maardu vs Elva — Esiliiga A
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Maardu and Elva meet in the Esiliiga A 2026 season on 29 October 2026. Maardu have recorded 15 wins from 34 matches this season (44% win rate), averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 71% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 68%; and clean sheets in 15% of games. Elva have won 54% of their 39 matches, with 1.92 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 56%, Over 2.5 at 69%, and clean sheets at 28%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.54 for Maardu and 1.98 for Elva. The models give Maardu a 35% win probability, with a draw at 24% and an Elva win at 42%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 68% and BTTS at 68%.
Season Statistics
Maardu—
Elva6º
Position
4º
1.30
PPG
1.50
35%
Win %
45%
1.50
Goals / game
1.85
2.35
Conceded / game
1.65
71%
BTTS %
56%
15%
Clean sheet %
28%
68%
Over 2.5 %
69%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Maardu
Home (10)
—
Elva
Away (10)
1.70
PPG
1.50
50%
Win %
40%
1.40
Goals / game
2.10
2.00
Conceded / game
1.40
65%
BTTS %
56%
20%
Clean sheet %
28%
60%
Over 2.5 %
78%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Maardu | Home | Away | Elva | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 79% | 80% | 79% | 82% | 81% | 83% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 50% | 45% | 57% | 59% | 52% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 29% | 20% | 43% | 33% | 24% | 44% |
| Failed To Score | 21% | 20% | 21% | 18% | 19% | 17% |
Goals Conceded
| Maardu | Home | Away | Elva | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 85% | 80% | 93% | 72% | 71% | 72% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 41% | 40% | 43% | 38% | 38% | 39% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 29% | 20% | 43% | 23% | 29% | 17% |
| Clean Sheets | 15% | 20% | 7% | 28% | 29% | 28% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Maardu | Elva | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 94% | 97% |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 79% |
| Over 2.5 | 68% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 46% |
| Over 4.5 | 41% | 26% |
| BTTS | 71% | 56% |
| BTTS & Win | 35% | 28% |
| BTTS & Draw | 15% | 13% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 59% | 51% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 9% | 18% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Maardu | Elva | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 27% | 41% |
| Draw 1st Half | 52% | 32% |
| Loss 1st Half | 21% | 27% |
| Scored 1st Half | 55% | 57% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 48% | 41% |
| Win 2nd Half | 27% | 41% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 33% | 38% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 39% | 22% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 55% | 65% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 73% | 43% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 67% | 76% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 58% | 46% |
Recent Venue Form
Maardu (H)W
Nõmme United II2–1
Nõmme United II2–1W
FCI Levadia II4–2
FCI Levadia II4–2W
FC Tallinn1–0
FC Tallinn1–0L
Viimsi1–2
Viimsi1–2L
Tartu Welco1–8
Tartu Welco1–8W
Flora II3–2
Flora II3–2Elva (A)WFlora II2–1
Flora II2–1LViimsi0–5
Viimsi0–5WNõmme United II1–0
Nõmme United II1–0L
Tallinna Kalev0–1
Tallinna Kalev0–1DFCI Levadia II2–2
FCI Levadia II2–2W
Läänemaa Haapsalu6–0
Läänemaa Haapsalu6–0Head to Head · 18 matches
10
Maardu
56%
3
Draws
17%
5
Elva
28%
83%
Over 1.5
15/18
67%
Over 2.5
12/18
33%
Over 3.5
6/18
61%
BTTS
11/18
20/08/26Maardu
Elva
1–0Maardu11/06/26Maardu
Elva
4–3Maardu12/03/26Elva
Maardu
0–3Elva14/10/21Elva
Maardu
2–1Elva25/08/21Maardu
Elva
0–1Maardu20/06/21Maardu
Elva
0–6Maardu01/11/20Maardu
Elva
1–2Maardu11/10/20Elva
Maardu
0–0Elva19/07/20Elva
Maardu
1–1Elva07/06/20Maardu
Elva
0–2Maardu11/11/18Elva
Maardu
6–1Elva26/08/18Maardu
Elva
2–5Maardu08/07/18Maardu
Elva
1–2Maardu09/06/18Elva
Maardu
8–1Elva13/09/17Maardu
Elva
1–1Maardu23/08/17Elva
Maardu
3–0Elva04/06/17Maardu
Elva
4–3Maardu02/04/17Elva
Maardu
1–2Elva| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tartu Welco | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | +42 | 62 |
| 2 | Viimsi | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | +25 | 50 |
| 3 | Flora II | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | +19 | 48 |
| 4 | Elva | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | +3 | 48 |
| 5 | FCI Levadia II | 29 | 13 | 2 | 14 | +5 | 41 |
| 6 | Maardu | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | -12 | 41 |
| 7 | Tallinna Kalev | 29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | -3 | 37 |
| 8 | Nõmme United II | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | -13 | 33 |
| 9 | FC Tallinn | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -26 | 32 |
| 10 |  Nõmme Kalju II | 29 | 6 | 4 | 19 | -40 | 22 |
Team Insights
Maardu- ●Maardu have won their last 3 matches.
- ●Maardu have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 matches.
- ●Maardu have won their last 3 home matches.
- ●Maardu have scored in each of their last 8 home matches.
- ●Maardu failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 6 away matches.
- ●Maardu failed to keep a clean sheet in 12 of their 14 home matches.
- ●Maardu have scored in 12 of their 14 home matches.
- ●Maardu failed to keep a clean sheet in 12 of their 13 away matches.
- ●Maardu have scored in 10 of their 13 away matches.
Elva- ●Elva have been undefeated in their last 5 home matches.
- ●Elva failed to keep a clean sheet in 10 of their 15 home matches.
- ●Elva failed to keep a clean sheet in 12 of their 15 away matches.
- ●Elva have won 6 of their 15 away matches.
- ●Elva have scored in 12 of their 15 away matches.
Season Schedule
MaarduWHNõmme United II2–1
Nõmme United II2–1WHFCI Levadia II4–2
FCI Levadia II4–2WATallinna Kalev3–1
Tallinna Kalev3–1LAElva0–1
Elva0–1WHFC Tallinn1–0
FC Tallinn1–0LHViimsi1–2
Viimsi1–2–HNõmme Kalju II11/10
Nõmme Kalju II11/10–AViimsi15/10
Viimsi15/10–HFlora II19/10
Flora II19/10ElvaDHFC Tallinn1–1
FC Tallinn1–1WAFlora II2–1
Flora II2–1LAViimsi0–5
Viimsi0–5WHNõmme Kalju II1–0
Nõmme Kalju II1–0WANõmme United II1–0
Nõmme United II1–0DHFlora II0–0
Flora II0–0–ATartu Welco09/10
Tartu Welco09/10–ANõmme Kalju II18/10
Nõmme Kalju II18/10–HFCI Levadia II25/10
FCI Levadia II25/10Top Scorers
MaarduA. Volkov15 ⚽
E. Kouadio12 ⚽
S. Tsombaljuk7 ⚽
6 ⚽
M. Tserezov3 ⚽
F. Kouakou2 ⚽
Elva10 ⚽
J. Mbuthia9 ⚽
K. Burov5 ⚽
K. Haabma4 ⚽
R. Neltsas4 ⚽
K. Poldsaar3 ⚽
Cards Given
MaarduD. Lebedev2 🟨
A. Volkov1 🟨
ElvaD. Laaneots2 🟨
G. Lani2 🟨