South Korea · K3 League · Regular Season - 25

Ulsan Citizen

11º · 1.06 PPG

Days Since Last Match: 23d 0h

–

Changwon City

6º · 1.44 PPG

Days Since Last Match: 22d 0h

Ulsan Complex Stadium·Ulsan·South Korea·19,471

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Ulsan Citizen and Changwon City meet in the K3 League 2026 season on 1 November 2026. Ulsan Citizen have recorded 11 wins from 28 matches this season (39% win rate), averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 54% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 50%; and clean sheets in 25% of games. Changwon City have won 31% of their 26 matches, with 1.19 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 58%, Over 2.5 at 42%, and clean sheets at 23%.

Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.15 for Ulsan Citizen and 1.00 for Changwon City. The models give Ulsan Citizen a 38% win probability, with a draw at 30% and an Changwon City win at 32%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 36% and BTTS at 43%.

Season Statistics

Ulsan Citizen

—

Changwon City

11º

Position

6º

1.06

PPG

1.44

28%

Win %

33%

1.00

Goals / game

1.06

1.17

Conceded / game

0.94

54%

BTTS %

58%

25%

Clean sheet %

23%

50%

Over 2.5 %

42%

0.0

Avg corners

0.0

Avg shots

0.0

Avg shots on target

0.0

Avg yellow cards

0.0

Avg fouls

0.0

0.0%

Avg possession

0.0%

Home vs Away

Ulsan Citizen

Home (10)

—

Changwon City

Away (8)

1.10

PPG

1.38

30%

Win %

38%

0.90

Goals / game

0.88

0.90

Conceded / game

1.00

53%

BTTS %

55%

24%

Clean sheet %

18%

53%

Over 2.5 %

45%

0.0

Avg corners

0.0

Avg shots

0.0

Avg shots on target

0.0

Avg yellow cards

0.0

0.0%

Avg possession

0.0%

Goals Scored

	Ulsan Citizen	Home	Away	Changwon City	Home	Away
Over 0.5 Scored	71%	65%	82%	73%	80%	64%
Over 1.5 Scored	29%	29%	27%	31%	33%	27%
Over 2.5 Scored	7%	12%	0%	15%	13%	18%
Failed To Score	29%	35%	18%	27%	20%	36%

Goals Conceded

	Ulsan Citizen	Home	Away	Changwon City	Home	Away
Over 0.5 Conceded	75%	76%	73%	77%	73%	82%
Over 1.5 Conceded	39%	29%	55%	35%	27%	45%
Over 2.5 Conceded	0%	0%	0%	15%	13%	18%
Clean Sheets	25%	24%	27%	23%	27%	18%

Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions

	Ulsan Citizen	Changwon City
Over 0.5	93%	92%
Over 1.5	64%	69%
Over 2.5	50%	42%
Over 3.5	11%	27%
Over 4.5	7%	15%
BTTS	54%	58%
BTTS & Win	21%	15%
BTTS & Draw	7%	23%
BTTS & Over 2.5	50%	38%
BTTS No & Over 2.5	0%	4%

1st Half / 2nd Half

	Ulsan Citizen	Changwon City
Win 1st Half	39%	27%
Draw 1st Half	29%	42%
Loss 1st Half	32%	31%
Scored 1st Half	43%	38%
Conceded 1st Half	43%	42%
Win 2nd Half	21%	27%
Draw 2nd Half	54%	46%
Loss 2nd Half	25%	27%
Scored 2nd Half	50%	50%
Conceded 2nd Half	61%	54%
Over 0.5 HT	75%	65%
Over 1.5 HT	18%	27%

Recent Venue Form

Ulsan Citizen (H)

Siheung Citizen1–2

Gyeongju HNP1–2

Busan Transportation2–1

Gwangju FC0–1

Ulsan Hyundai FC1–0

Seoul E-Land FC4–2

Changwon City (A)

Gyeongju HNP1–2

Siheung Citizen1–3

Busan Transportation3–4

Dangjin Citizen2–1

Gangneung City1–0

Pocheon0–0

Head to Head · 12 matches

Ulsan Citizen

25%

Draws

Changwon City

67%

58%

Over 1.5

7/12

33%

Over 2.5

4/12

Over 3.5

1/12

17%

BTTS

2/12

23/05/26

Changwon City

2–0

Ulsan Citizen

23/08/25

Ulsan Citizen

0–1

Changwon City

27/04/25

Changwon City

2–1

Ulsan Citizen

07/09/24

Changwon City

1–0

Ulsan Citizen

11/05/24

Ulsan Citizen

0–4

Changwon City

23/06/23

Changwon City

1–2

Ulsan Citizen

11/03/23

Ulsan Citizen

3–0

Changwon City

17/09/22

Ulsan Citizen

0–2

Changwon City

11/06/22

Changwon City

0–0

Ulsan Citizen

13/05/22

Changwon City

1–0

Ulsan Citizen

26/06/21

Ulsan Citizen

2–0

Changwon City

13/03/21

Changwon City

1–0

Ulsan Citizen

K3 League

#	Team	MP	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Siheung Citizen	24	17	4	3	+16	55
2	Pocheon	24	14	7	3	+21	49
3	Daejeon Korail	24	12	5	7	+14	41
4	Busan Transportation	24	11	7	6	+12	40
5	Gyeongju HNP	24	9	9	6	+4	36
6	Dangjin Citizen	24	10	4	10	+8	34
7	Chuncheon	24	9	6	9	+5	33
8	Gangneung City	24	8	6	10	-10	30
9	Changwon City	24	7	8	9	-4	29
10	Ulsan Citizen	24	8	4	12	-3	28
11	Yeoju Sejong	24	7	7	10	-4	28
12	Mokpo City	24	5	10	9	-14	25
13	Yangpyeong	24	4	8	12	-16	20
14	Jeonbuk Motors II	24	1	7	16	-29	10

Team Insights

Ulsan Citizen

●Ulsan Citizen have scored in each of their last 11 matches.
●Ulsan Citizen have scored in each of their last 6 home matches.
●Ulsan Citizen have scored in each of their last 5 away matches.
●Ulsan Citizen failed to keep a clean sheet in 10 of their 13 home matches.
●Ulsan Citizen have lost 7 of their 13 home matches.
●Ulsan Citizen failed to keep a clean sheet in 8 of their 11 away matches.
●Ulsan Citizen have won 4 of their 11 away matches.
●Ulsan Citizen have scored in 9 of their 11 away matches.

Changwon City

●Changwon City failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 11 matches.
●Changwon City failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 7 home matches.
●Changwon City have lost their last 3 away matches.
●Changwon City have scored in each of their last 5 away matches.
●Changwon City have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 away matches.
●Changwon City failed to keep a clean sheet in 10 of their 13 home matches.
●Changwon City failed to keep a clean sheet in 9 of their 11 away matches.