Italy vs France — UEFA Nations League
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Italy and France meet in the UEFA Nations League 2026 season on 12 November 2026. Italy have recorded 4 wins from 6 matches this season (67% win rate), averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 50% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 33%; and clean sheets in 33% of games. France have won 75% of their 16 matches, with 2.25 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 56%, Over 2.5 at 63%, and clean sheets at 38%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.11 for Italy and 1.47 for France. The models give Italy a 32% win probability, with a draw at 27% and an France win at 41%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 47% and BTTS at 51%.
Season Statistics
Italy—
France4º
Position
2º
0.00
PPG
3.00
0%
Win %
100%
0.00
Goals / game
1.00
2.00
Conceded / game
0.00
50%
BTTS %
56%
33%
Clean sheet %
38%
33%
Over 2.5 %
63%
3.8
Avg corners
5.9
14.8
Avg shots
17.1
4.7
Avg shots on target
6.6
2.0
Avg yellow cards
1.3
12.8
Avg fouls
9.8
46.0%
Avg possession
59.3%
Home vs Away
Italy
Home (1)
—
France
Away (1)
0.00
PPG
3.00
0%
Win %
100%
0.00
Goals / game
1.00
2.00
Conceded / game
0.00
50%
BTTS %
50%
0%
Clean sheet %
50%
50%
Over 2.5 %
50%
3.8
Avg corners
5.9
14.8
Avg shots
17.1
4.7
Avg shots on target
6.6
2.0
Avg yellow cards
1.3
46.0%
Avg possession
59.3%
Goals Scored
| Italy | Home | Away | France | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 83% | 50% | 100% | 94% | 90% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 33% | 50% | 25% | 63% | 70% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 33% | 50% | 25% | 50% | 60% | 33% |
| Failed To Score | 17% | 50% | 0% | 6% | 10% | 0% |
Goals Conceded
| Italy | Home | Away | France | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 67% | 100% | 50% | 63% | 70% | 50% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 17% | 50% | 0% | 19% | 30% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6% | 10% | 0% |
| Clean Sheets | 33% | 0% | 50% | 38% | 30% | 50% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Italy | France | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 81% |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 38% |
| Over 4.5 | 17% | 19% |
| BTTS | 50% | 56% |
| BTTS & Win | 33% | 38% |
| BTTS & Draw | 17% | 6% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 0% | 13% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Italy | France | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 50% | 44% |
| Draw 1st Half | 33% | 38% |
| Loss 1st Half | 17% | 19% |
| Scored 1st Half | 50% | 44% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 17% | 25% |
| Win 2nd Half | 33% | 69% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 50% | 19% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 17% | 13% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 67% | 88% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 67% | 50% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 67% | 63% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 17% | 19% |
Recent Venue Form
Italy (H)W
Türkiye3–1
Türkiye3–1L
Belgium0–2
Belgium0–2W
Northern Ireland2–0
Northern Ireland2–0L
Norway1–4
Norway1–4W
Israel3–0
Israel3–0W
Estonia5–0
Estonia5–0France (A)WBelgium1–0
Belgium1–0WTürkiye1–0
Türkiye1–0W
Paraguay1–0
Paraguay1–0WNorway4–1
Norway4–1W
Colombia3–1
Colombia3–1W
Brazil2–1
Brazil2–1Number of Corners
9.7
Corners / Match
6 games
League Avg
8.6
104 games
9.3
Corners / Match
16 games
| Match Corners | Italy | France | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 83% | 88% | 75% |
| Over 7 | 83% | 75% | 65% |
| Over 8 | 67% | 56% | 53% |
| Over 9 | 67% | 50% | 38% |
| Over 10 | 50% | 19% | 23% |
| Over 11 | 33% | 13% | 17% |
| Over 12 | 0% | 13% | 7% |
| Over 13 | 0% | 13% | 3% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Italy | France |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 3.8 | 5.9 |
| Corners Against / Match | 5.8 | 3.3 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 83% | 94% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 50% | 81% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 17% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 83% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 83% | 50% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 67% | 25% |
Head to Head · 5 matches
2
Italy
40%
1
Draws
20%
2
France
40%
100%
Over 1.5
5/5
60%
Over 2.5
3/5
60%
Over 3.5
3/5
80%
BTTS
4/5
02/10/26Italy
France
1–1Italy17/11/24France
Italy
1–3France06/09/24Italy
France
1–3Italy01/06/18Italy
France
3–1Italy17/06/08Italy
France
0–2Italy| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Spain | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 12 |
| 1 |  Switzerland | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +10 | 12 |
| 1 |  Portugal | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 12 |
| 1 |  Montenegro | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 10 |
| 1 |  Sweden | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 10 |
| 1 | France | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 10 |
| 1 |  Slovakia | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 10 |
| 1 |  Albania | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +5 | 9 |
| 1 |  Iceland | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +6 | 8 |
| 1 |  Austria | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +4 | 8 |
| 1 |  Netherlands | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 8 |
| 1 | Northern Ireland | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +4 | 8 |
| 1 |  Malta | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 7 |
| 1 |  Azerbaijan | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 5 |
| 2 |  England | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +11 | 9 |
| 2 |  Bosnia & Herzegovina | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +3 | 8 |
| 2 |  Greece | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 8 |
| 2 |  Cyprus | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 2 |  Hungary | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 2 | Italy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 |
| 2 |  Belarus | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 |
| 2 |  Slovenia | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 2 |  Denmark | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | Estonia | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
| 2 |  Kosovo | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 2 |  Faroe Islands | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 2 |  Lithuania | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 2 |  Gibraltar | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 3 |  Finland | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +7 | 7 |
| 3 | Belgium | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 6 |
| 3 |  Rep. Of Ireland | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 5 |
| 3 |  Germany | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 3 |  Bulgaria | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 3 |  Ukraine | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 3 |  Moldova | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 4 |
| 3 |  Armenia | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 |  Poland | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 4 |
| 3 |  Scotland | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 3 |  Wales | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 3 |  Croatia | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 3 |
| 3 |  Andorra | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 3 |  Liechtenstein | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 4 | Norway | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 4 |  Luxembourg | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 4 | Israel | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 4 |  Georgia | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| 4 |  Kazakhstan | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| 4 |  Latvia | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 4 |  Czechia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 0 |
| 4 |  FYR Macedonia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
| 4 |  San Marino | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -15 | 0 |
| 4 |  Romania | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
| 4 |  Serbia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 0 |
| 4 | Türkiye | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 0 |
Team Insights
Italy- ●Italy have been undefeated in their last 3 matches.
- ●62% of Italy's goals have been scored away.
France- ●France have been undefeated in their last 4 matches.
- ●France have won their last 2 away matches.
- ●France have kept a clean sheet in their last 2 away matches.
- ●60% of France's points have been earned away.
Season Schedule
ItalyWHTürkiye3–1
Türkiye3–1DAFrance1–1
France1–1WATürkiye4–1
Türkiye4–1LHBelgium0–2
Belgium0–2–HFrance12/11
France12/11–ABelgium15/11
Belgium15/11FranceWHBelgium4–1
Belgium4–1DHItaly1–1
Italy1–1WABelgium1–0
Belgium1–0WATürkiye1–0
Türkiye1–0–AItaly12/11
Italy12/11–HTürkiye15/11
Türkiye15/11Top Scorers
ItalyF. Esposito2 ⚽
Pio Esposito2 ⚽
Alessandro Bastoni2 ⚽
Riccardo Calafiori1 ⚽
Gianluca Scamacca1 ⚽
Davide Frattesi1 ⚽
FranceK. Mbappe11 ⚽
O. Dembele6 ⚽
Michael Olise4 ⚽
B. Barcola3 ⚽
D. Doue3 ⚽
M. Olise3 ⚽
Cards Given
ItalyLuca Lipani2 🟨
Costantino Favasuli1 🟨
Daniel Maldini1 🟨
Gianluca Mancini1 🟨
Gianluca Scamacca1 🟨
Antonio Vergara1 🟨
FranceDayot Upamecano4 🟨
Manu Koné2 🟨
Bradley Barcola1 🟨
Désiré Doué1 🟨
Eduardo Camavinga1 🟨
Aurélien Tchouaméni1 🟨