Iceland vs Luxembourg — UEFA Nations League
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Iceland and Luxembourg meet in the UEFA Nations League 2026 season on 16 November 2026. Iceland have recorded 2 wins from 9 matches this season (22% win rate), averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 33% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 56%; and clean sheets in 33% of games. Luxembourg have won 33% of their 6 matches, with 0.50 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 17%, Over 2.5 at 33%, and clean sheets at 17%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.37 for Iceland and 1.20 for Luxembourg. The models give Iceland a 46% win probability, with a draw at 26% and an Luxembourg win at 28%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 47% and BTTS at 51%.
Season Statistics
Iceland—
Luxembourg3º
Position
1º
1.00
PPG
3.00
0%
Win %
100%
1.00
Goals / game
2.00
1.00
Conceded / game
1.00
33%
BTTS %
17%
33%
Clean sheet %
17%
56%
Over 2.5 %
33%
3.9
Avg corners
3.6
9.5
Avg shots
11.2
3.4
Avg shots on target
3.6
2.4
Avg yellow cards
2.4
10.5
Avg fouls
13.6
48.1%
Avg possession
54.6%
Home vs Away
Iceland
Home (1)
—
Luxembourg
Away (1)
1.00
PPG
3.00
0%
Win %
100%
1.00
Goals / game
2.00
1.00
Conceded / game
1.00
50%
BTTS %
33%
50%
Clean sheet %
33%
50%
Over 2.5 %
33%
3.9
Avg corners
3.6
9.5
Avg shots
11.2
3.4
Avg shots on target
3.6
2.4
Avg yellow cards
2.4
48.1%
Avg possession
54.6%
Goals Scored
| Iceland | Home | Away | Luxembourg | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 56% | 100% | 43% | 33% | 0% | 67% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 33% | 50% | 29% | 17% | 0% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 22% | 50% | 14% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Failed To Score | 44% | 0% | 57% | 67% | 100% | 33% |
Goals Conceded
| Iceland | Home | Away | Luxembourg | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 67% | 50% | 71% | 83% | 100% | 67% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 33% | 0% | 43% | 33% | 67% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 22% | 0% | 29% | 17% | 33% | 0% |
| Clean Sheets | 33% | 50% | 29% | 17% | 0% | 33% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Iceland | Luxembourg | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 89% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 33% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 0% |
| Over 4.5 | 0% | 0% |
| BTTS | 33% | 17% |
| BTTS & Win | 0% | 17% |
| BTTS & Draw | 33% | 0% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 11% | 17% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 44% | 17% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Iceland | Luxembourg | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 44% | 17% |
| Draw 1st Half | 33% | 33% |
| Loss 1st Half | 22% | 50% |
| Scored 1st Half | 44% | 33% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 22% | 67% |
| Win 2nd Half | 22% | 17% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 22% | 50% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 56% | 33% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 33% | 17% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 67% | 33% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 67% | 83% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 33% | 50% |
Recent Venue Form
Iceland (H)W
Bulgaria3–0
Bulgaria3–0D
Estonia1–1
Estonia1–1D
France2–2
France2–2L
Ukraine3–5
Ukraine3–5W
Azerbaijan5–0
Azerbaijan5–0L
Kosovo1–3
Kosovo1–3Luxembourg (A)LEstonia0–1
Estonia0–1WBulgaria2–1
Bulgaria2–1W
Albania1–0
Albania1–0W
Malta2–0
Malta2–0L
Northern Ireland0–1
Northern Ireland0–1L
Slovakia0–2
Slovakia0–2Number of Corners
7.9
Corners / Match
8 games
League Avg
8.6
104 games
8.6
Corners / Match
5 games
| Match Corners | Iceland | Luxembourg | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 63% | 80% | 75% |
| Over 7 | 63% | 80% | 65% |
| Over 8 | 63% | 80% | 53% |
| Over 9 | 50% | 40% | 38% |
| Over 10 | 0% | 20% | 23% |
| Over 11 | 0% | 0% | 17% |
| Over 12 | 0% | 0% | 7% |
| Over 13 | 0% | 0% | 3% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Iceland | Luxembourg |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 3.9 | 3.6 |
| Corners Against / Match | 4.0 | 5.0 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 38% | 80% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 38% | 60% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 38% | 20% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 63% | 80% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 38% | 80% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 38% | 60% |
Head to Head · 3 matches
1
Iceland
33%
1
Draws
33%
1
Luxembourg
33%
100%
Over 1.5
3/3
67%
Over 2.5
2/3
33%
Over 3.5
1/3
67%
BTTS
2/3
29/09/26Iceland
Luxembourg
0–3Iceland13/10/23Luxembourg
Iceland
1–1Luxembourg08/09/23Iceland
Luxembourg
3–1Iceland| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Spain | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 12 |
| 1 |  Switzerland | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +10 | 12 |
| 1 |  Portugal | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 12 |
| 1 |  Montenegro | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 10 |
| 1 |  Sweden | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 10 |
| 1 | France | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 10 |
| 1 | Slovakia | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 10 |
| 1 | Albania | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +5 | 9 |
| 1 | Iceland | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +6 | 8 |
| 1 |  Austria | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +4 | 8 |
| 1 |  Netherlands | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 8 |
| 1 | Northern Ireland | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +4 | 8 |
| 1 | Malta | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 7 |
| 1 | Azerbaijan | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 5 |
| 2 |  England | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +11 | 9 |
| 2 |  Bosnia & Herzegovina | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +3 | 8 |
| 2 |  Greece | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 8 |
| 2 |  Cyprus | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 2 |  Hungary | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 2 |  Italy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 |
| 2 |  Belarus | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 |
| 2 |  Slovenia | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 2 |  Denmark | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | Estonia | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
| 2 | Kosovo | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 2 |  Faroe Islands | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 2 |  Lithuania | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 2 |  Gibraltar | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 3 |  Finland | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +7 | 7 |
| 3 |  Belgium | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 6 |
| 3 |  Rep. Of Ireland | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 5 |
| 3 |  Germany | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 3 | Bulgaria | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 3 | Ukraine | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 3 |  Moldova | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 4 |
| 3 |  Armenia | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 |  Poland | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 4 |
| 3 |  Scotland | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 3 |  Wales | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 3 |  Croatia | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 3 |
| 3 |  Andorra | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 3 |  Liechtenstein | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 4 |  Norway | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 4 | Luxembourg | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 4 |  Israel | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 4 |  Georgia | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| 4 |  Kazakhstan | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| 4 |  Latvia | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 4 |  Czechia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 0 |
| 4 |  FYR Macedonia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
| 4 |  San Marino | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -15 | 0 |
| 4 |  Romania | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
| 4 |  Serbia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 0 |
| 4 |  Türkiye | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 0 |
Team Insights
Iceland- ●Iceland have been undefeated in their last 4 matches.
- ●Iceland have kept a clean sheet in each of their last 3 matches.
- ●Iceland have kept a clean sheet in their last 2 away matches.
Luxembourg- ●Luxembourg have failed to win in their last 3 matches.
- ●Luxembourg have lost their last 3 matches.
Season Schedule
IcelandDAEstonia0–0
Estonia0–0WHBulgaria3–0
Bulgaria3–0WALuxembourg3–0
Luxembourg3–0DHEstonia1–1
Estonia1–1–ABulgaria13/11
Bulgaria13/11–HLuxembourg16/11
Luxembourg16/11LuxembourgLHBulgaria0–2
Bulgaria0–2LAEstonia0–1
Estonia0–1LHIceland0–3
Iceland0–3WABulgaria2–1
Bulgaria2–1–HEstonia13/11
Estonia13/11–AIceland16/11
Iceland16/11Top Scorers
IcelandOrri Steinn Óskarsson3 ⚽
Andri Guðjohnsen2 ⚽
O. Oskarsson2 ⚽
G. Sigurdsson1 ⚽
Mikael Ellertsson1 ⚽
Victor Pálsson1 ⚽
LuxembourgD. Sinani1 ⚽
Leandro Barreiro1 ⚽
Vincent Thill1 ⚽
Cards Given
IcelandÍsak Bergmann Jóhannesson2 🟨
Mikael Ellertsson2 🟨
Jón Dagur Þórsteinsson2 🟨
Daníel Grétarsson1 🟨
Hörður Magnússon1 🟨
Hakon Valdimarsson1 🟨
LuxembourgDirk Carlson3 🟨
Leandro Barreiro2 🟨
Enes Mahmutovic2 🟨
Florian Bohnert1 🟨
J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz1 🟨
Mathias Olesen1 🟨