Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima — Primera A
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Atletico Nacional and Deportes Tolima meet in the Primera A 2026 season on 8 October 2026. Atletico Nacional have recorded 25 wins from 37 matches this season (68% win rate), averaging 1.89 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 43% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 65%; and clean sheets in 35% of games. Deportes Tolima have won 44% of their 45 matches, with 1.27 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 44%, Over 2.5 at 44%, and clean sheets at 36%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.89 for Atletico Nacional and 0.77 for Deportes Tolima. The models give Atletico Nacional a 62% win probability, with a draw at 23% and an Deportes Tolima win at 15%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 49% and BTTS at 45%.
Season Statistics
Atletico Nacional—
Deportes Tolima1º
Position
6º
2.11
PPG
1.63
68%
Win %
42%
1.84
Goals / game
1.42
0.79
Conceded / game
0.89
43%
BTTS %
44%
35%
Clean sheet %
36%
65%
Over 2.5 %
44%
5.5
Avg corners
4.8
16.3
Avg shots
12.6
6.2
Avg shots on target
4.7
2.7
Avg yellow cards
2.4
11.6
Avg fouls
11.0
57.5%
Avg possession
56.5%
Home vs Away
Atletico Nacional
Home (9)
—
Deportes Tolima
Away (9)
2.78
PPG
0.89
89%
Win %
11%
2.44
Goals / game
0.89
0.33
Conceded / game
1.11
50%
BTTS %
48%
50%
Clean sheet %
29%
67%
Over 2.5 %
43%
5.5
Avg corners
4.8
16.3
Avg shots
12.6
6.2
Avg shots on target
4.7
2.7
Avg yellow cards
2.4
57.5%
Avg possession
56.5%
Goals Scored
| Atletico Nacional | Home | Away | Deportes Tolima | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 76% | 94% | 58% | 69% | 75% | 62% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 62% | 72% | 53% | 47% | 63% | 29% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 27% | 33% | 21% | 9% | 17% | 0% |
| Failed To Score | 24% | 6% | 42% | 31% | 25% | 38% |
Goals Conceded
| Atletico Nacional | Home | Away | Deportes Tolima | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 65% | 50% | 79% | 64% | 58% | 71% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 19% | 17% | 21% | 22% | 8% | 38% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 11% | 6% | 16% | 13% | 4% | 24% |
| Clean Sheets | 35% | 50% | 21% | 36% | 42% | 29% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Atletico Nacional | Deportes Tolima | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 97% | 89% |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 20% |
| Over 4.5 | 11% | 7% |
| BTTS | 43% | 44% |
| BTTS & Win | 35% | 20% |
| BTTS & Draw | 0% | 11% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 43% | 38% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 22% | 7% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Atletico Nacional | Deportes Tolima | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 35% | 33% |
| Draw 1st Half | 41% | 47% |
| Loss 1st Half | 24% | 20% |
| Scored 1st Half | 51% | 42% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 43% | 31% |
| Win 2nd Half | 57% | 42% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 19% | 24% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 24% | 33% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 62% | 51% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 35% | 44% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 73% | 60% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 35% | 22% |
Recent Venue Form
Atletico Nacional (H)W
Águilas Doradas2–0
Águilas Doradas2–0W
Deportivo Cali2–1
Deportivo Cali2–1W
Tigres FC2–0
Tigres FC2–0L
Deportivo Tachira FC1–2
Deportivo Tachira FC1–2W
Junior1–0
Junior1–0WDeportes Tolima3–1
Deportes Tolima3–1Deportes Tolima (A)L
Santa Fe0–1
Santa Fe0–1W
Llaneros2–1
Llaneros2–1L
Independiente del Valle1–3
Independiente del Valle1–3W
Alianza Valledupar2–1
Alianza Valledupar2–1L
Quindio1–2
Quindio1–2D
Universitario0–0
Universitario0–0Number of Corners
9.4
Corners / Match
32 games
League Avg
9.0
278 games
9.3
Corners / Match
42 games
| Match Corners | Atletico Nacional | Deportes Tolima | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 88% | 81% | 77% |
| Over 7 | 75% | 79% | 66% |
| Over 8 | 63% | 55% | 52% |
| Over 9 | 50% | 48% | 40% |
| Over 10 | 28% | 31% | 28% |
| Over 11 | 16% | 19% | 21% |
| Over 12 | 13% | 10% | 13% |
| Over 13 | 9% | 5% | 10% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Atletico Nacional | Deportes Tolima |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 5.5 | 4.8 |
| Corners Against / Match | 4.0 | 4.5 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 91% | 71% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 69% | 64% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 50% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 69% | 86% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 53% | 55% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 41% | 40% |
Head to Head · 37 matches
12
Atletico Nacional
32%
8
Draws
22%
17
Deportes Tolima
46%
62%
Over 1.5
23/37
46%
Over 2.5
17/37
24%
Over 3.5
9/37
54%
BTTS
20/37
23/05/26Deportes Tolima
Atletico Nacional
3–1Deportes Tolima16/05/26Atletico Nacional
Deportes Tolima
0–1Atletico Nacional02/03/26Atletico Nacional
Deportes Tolima
1–0Atletico Nacional02/08/25Atletico Nacional
Deportes Tolima
0–0Atletico Nacional20/03/25Deportes Tolima
Atletico Nacional
4–3Deportes Tolima22/12/24Deportes Tolima
Atletico Nacional
2–0Deportes Tolima19/12/24Atletico Nacional
Deportes Tolima
1–1Atletico Nacional15/11/24Atletico Nacional
Deportes Tolima
1–0Atletico Nacional28/04/24Deportes Tolima
Atletico Nacional
3–1Deportes Tolima09/11/23Deportes Tolima
Atletico Nacional
2–3Deportes Tolima18/05/23Atletico Nacional
Deportes Tolima
2–2Atletico Nacional24/07/22Atletico Nacional
Deportes Tolima
2–2Atletico Nacional27/06/22Atletico Nacional
Deportes Tolima
2–1Atletico Nacional23/06/22Deportes Tolima
Atletico Nacional
3–1Deportes Tolima04/02/22Deportes Tolima
Atletico Nacional
0–1Deportes Tolima25/07/21Deportes Tolima
Atletico Nacional
1–0Deportes Tolima30/03/21Atletico Nacional
Deportes Tolima
2–1Atletico Nacional21/01/21Atletico Nacional
Deportes Tolima
2–0Atletico Nacional01/10/20Deportes Tolima
Atletico Nacional
1–2Deportes Tolima24/11/19Deportes Tolima
Atletico Nacional
1–1Deportes Tolima| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 25 | 18 | 1 | 6 | +28 | 55 |
| 2 | Junior | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | +9 | 44 |
| 3 | Deportes Tolima | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | +11 | 40 |
| 4 |  America de Cali | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | +8 | 37 |
| 5 | Santa Fe | 23 | 8 | 11 | 4 | +11 | 35 |
| 6 |  Once Caldas | 21 | 8 | 10 | 3 | +8 | 34 |
| 7 |  Deportivo Pasto | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 34 |
| 8 | Deportivo Cali | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | +6 | 30 |
| 9 |  Independiente Medellin | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | +3 | 29 |
| 10 |  Internacional de Bogota | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | -9 | 28 |
| 11 |  Millonarios | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | +7 | 26 |
| 12 | Águilas Doradas | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | -5 | 26 |
| 12 |  Bucaramanga | 20 | 6 | 8 | 6 | +7 | 26 |
| 14 | Llaneros | 20 | 5 | 10 | 5 | -2 | 25 |
| 15 |  Fortaleza FC | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | -5 | 22 |
| 16 |  Jaguares | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | -15 | 18 |
| 17 | Alianza Valledupar | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | -14 | 17 |
| 18 |  Chico | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | -17 | 17 |
| 19 |  Cucuta | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -13 | 16 |
| 20 |  Deportivo Pereira | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | -18 | 10 |
Team Insights
Atletico Nacional- ●Atletico Nacional have won their last 4 matches.
- ●Atletico Nacional have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 4 matches.
- ●Atletico Nacional have won their last 7 home matches.
- ●Atletico Nacional have scored in each of their last 7 home matches.
- ●Atletico Nacional have won their last 2 away matches.
- ●Atletico Nacional have kept a clean sheet in 8 of their 14 home matches.
- ●Atletico Nacional have scored in 13 of their 14 home matches.
- ●Atletico Nacional failed to keep a clean sheet in 14 of their 17 away matches.
- ●Atletico Nacional have won 10 of their 17 away matches.
- ●76% of Atletico Nacional's goals conceded were conceded away.
- ●Atletico Nacional have conceded 60% of their goals in the first half.
Deportes Tolima- ●Deportes Tolima have been undefeated in their last 3 home matches.
- ●Deportes Tolima failed to keep a clean sheet in 10 of their 14 away matches.
- ●65% of Deportes Tolima's goals have been scored at home.
Season Schedule
Atletico NacionalWHÁguilas Doradas2–0
Águilas Doradas2–0WAAlianza Valledupar5–1
Alianza Valledupar5–1WHDeportivo Cali2–1
Deportivo Cali2–1WAFortaleza FC2–1
Fortaleza FC2–1LAAmerica de Cali0–1
America de Cali0–1WAJaguares3–0
Jaguares3–0–AInternacional de Bogota17/09
Internacional de Bogota17/09–ALlaneros21/09
Llaneros21/09–HMillonarios25/09
Millonarios25/09Deportes TolimaLASanta Fe0–1
Santa Fe0–1WALlaneros2–1
Llaneros2–1WHCucuta2–1
Cucuta2–1DHBucaramanga0–0
Bucaramanga0–0WHInternacional de Bogota2–1
Internacional de Bogota2–1LHIndependiente Medellin2–3
Independiente Medellin2–3–AOnce Caldas16/09
Once Caldas16/09–HAmerica de Cali20/09
America de Cali20/09–AFortaleza FC27/09
Fortaleza FC27/09Top Scorers
Atletico NacionalA. Morelos17 ⚽
J. Rengifo8 ⚽
M. Moreno8 ⚽
A. Sarmiento7 ⚽
E. Cardona5 ⚽
E. Bello2 ⚽
Deportes TolimaL. Sandoval10 ⚽
J. P. Torres Patino8 ⚽
A. Parra Osorio6 ⚽
K. Florez6 ⚽
J. Gonzalez5 ⚽
E. Valencia5 ⚽
Cards Given
Atletico NacionalAlfredo Morelos8 🟨
Juan Zapata6 🟨
Andrés Román6 🟨
Edwin Cardona6 🟨
Milton Casco6 🟨
Juan Manuel Rengifo5 🟨
Deportes TolimaLuis Sandoval9 🟨
Brayan Rovira7 🟨
Juan Torres6 🟨
Daniel Pedrozo5 🟨
Edwar López5 🟨
Sebastián Guzmán5 🟨