Colombia · Primera A · Clausura - 16

Atletico Nacional

1º · 2.11 PPG

Days Since Last Match: 17d 0h

–

Independiente Medellin

11º · 1.37 PPG

Days Since Last Match: 13d 21h

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Atletico Nacional and Independiente Medellin meet in the Primera A 2026 season on 25 October 2026. Atletico Nacional have recorded 28 wins from 44 matches this season (64% win rate), averaging 1.84 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 45% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 61%; and clean sheets in 34% of games. Independiente Medellin have won 44% of their 50 matches, with 1.46 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 68%, Over 2.5 at 58%, and clean sheets at 20%.

Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.90 for Atletico Nacional and 1.02 for Independiente Medellin. The models give Atletico Nacional a 59% win probability, with a draw at 23% and an Independiente Medellin win at 18%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 54% and BTTS at 53%.

Season Statistics

Atletico Nacional

—

Independiente Medellin

1º

Position

11º

2.11

PPG

1.37

68%

Win %

37%

1.84

Goals / game

1.37

0.79

Conceded / game

1.26

45%

BTTS %

68%

34%

Clean sheet %

20%

61%

Over 2.5 %

58%

5.6

Avg corners

5.0

16.4

Avg shots

13.7

6.1

Avg shots on target

4.5

2.6

Avg yellow cards

2.8

11.7

Avg fouls

12.2

58.6%

Avg possession

50.7%

Home vs Away

Atletico Nacional

Home (9)

—

Independiente Medellin

Away (9)

2.78

PPG

1.33

89%

Win %

33%

2.44

Goals / game

1.22

0.33

Conceded / game

1.22

52%

BTTS %

72%

48%

Clean sheet %

12%

61%

Over 2.5 %

60%

5.6

Avg corners

5.0

16.4

Avg shots

13.7

6.1

Avg shots on target

4.5

2.6

Avg yellow cards

2.8

58.6%

Avg possession

50.7%

Goals Scored

	Atletico Nacional	Home	Away	Independiente Medellin	Home	Away
Over 0.5 Scored	75%	91%	57%	84%	88%	80%
Over 1.5 Scored	59%	65%	52%	46%	52%	40%
Over 2.5 Scored	30%	35%	24%	14%	8%	20%
Failed To Score	25%	9%	43%	16%	12%	20%

Goals Conceded

	Atletico Nacional	Home	Away	Independiente Medellin	Home	Away
Over 0.5 Conceded	66%	52%	81%	80%	72%	88%
Over 1.5 Conceded	20%	13%	29%	36%	32%	40%
Over 2.5 Conceded	9%	4%	14%	6%	4%	8%
Clean Sheets	34%	48%	19%	20%	28%	12%

Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions

	Atletico Nacional	Independiente Medellin
Over 0.5	95%	96%
Over 1.5	80%	76%
Over 2.5	61%	58%
Over 3.5	23%	28%
Over 4.5	11%	12%
BTTS	45%	68%
BTTS & Win	34%	28%
BTTS & Draw	5%	22%
BTTS & Over 2.5	41%	56%
BTTS No & Over 2.5	20%	2%

1st Half / 2nd Half

	Atletico Nacional	Independiente Medellin
Win 1st Half	34%	21%
Draw 1st Half	45%	50%
Loss 1st Half	20%	29%
Scored 1st Half	55%	50%
Conceded 1st Half	45%	52%
Win 2nd Half	55%	44%
Draw 2nd Half	25%	31%
Loss 2nd Half	20%	25%
Scored 2nd Half	59%	60%
Conceded 2nd Half	32%	40%
Over 0.5 HT	73%	71%
Over 1.5 HT	41%	44%

Recent Venue Form

Atletico Nacional (H)

Deportes Tolima0–0

Junior3–1

Chapecoense-sc1–1

Millonarios1–1

Águilas Doradas2–0

Deportivo Cali3–0

Independiente Medellin (A)

America de Cali2–1

Junior0–2

Bucaramanga2–2

Chico1–2

Deportivo Pasto4–1

Deportivo Pereira3–0

Number of Corners

9.6

Corners / Match

37 games

League Avg

9.0

325 games

9.0

Corners / Match

42 games

Match Corners	Atletico Nacional	Independiente Medellin	League Avg
Over 6	86%	79%	77%
Over 7	76%	67%	68%
Over 8	65%	50%	54%
Over 9	54%	38%	41%
Over 10	32%	31%	30%
Over 11	22%	24%	22%
Over 12	14%	10%	13%
Over 13	8%	7%	9%

Team Corners

Team Corners	Atletico Nacional	Independiente Medellin
Corners Earned / Match	5.6	5.0
Corners Against / Match	4.0	4.0
Over 2.5 Corners For	92%	86%
Over 3.5 Corners For	70%	69%
Over 4.5 Corners For	51%	55%
Over 2.5 Corners Against	70%	74%
Over 3.5 Corners Against	54%	55%
Over 4.5 Corners Against	41%	33%

Head to Head · 42 matches

Atletico Nacional

36%

Draws

40%

Independiente Medellin

24%

71%

Over 1.5

30/42

48%

Over 2.5

20/42

36%

Over 3.5

15/42

62%

BTTS

26/42

12/04/26

Independiente Medellin

2–3

Atletico Nacional

18/12/25

Independiente Medellin

0–1

Atletico Nacional

13/12/25

Atletico Nacional

0–0

Independiente Medellin

04/12/25

Atletico Nacional

2–1

Independiente Medellin

23/11/25

Independiente Medellin

0–0

Atletico Nacional

26/10/25

Atletico Nacional

5–2

Independiente Medellin

07/09/25

Independiente Medellin

3–3

Atletico Nacional

04/05/25

Independiente Medellin

1–1

Atletico Nacional

23/03/25

Atletico Nacional

1–1

Independiente Medellin

18/11/24

Independiente Medellin

1–0

Atletico Nacional

11/11/24

Atletico Nacional

1–1

Independiente Medellin

01/11/24

Atletico Nacional

2–0

Independiente Medellin

22/04/24

Independiente Medellin

2–2

Atletico Nacional

03/12/23

Atletico Nacional

0–5

Independiente Medellin

19/11/23

Independiente Medellin

2–1

Atletico Nacional

14/10/23

Atletico Nacional

1–2

Independiente Medellin

10/09/23

Independiente Medellin

1–0

Atletico Nacional

30/04/23

Independiente Medellin

1–3

Atletico Nacional

26/03/23

Atletico Nacional

1–1

Independiente Medellin

07/10/22

Atletico Nacional

3–2

Independiente Medellin

Primera A

#	Team	MP	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Atletico Nacional	25	18	1	6	+28	55
2	Junior	26	13	5	8	+9	44
3	Deportes Tolima	24	11	7	6	+11	40
4	America de Cali	22	11	4	7	+8	37
5	Santa Fe	23	8	11	4	+11	35
6	Once Caldas	21	8	10	3	+8	34
7	Deportivo Pasto	22	10	4	8	0	34
8	Deportivo Cali	20	8	6	6	+6	30
9	Independiente Medellin	20	8	5	7	+3	29
10	Internacional de Bogota	22	7	7	8	-9	28
11	Millonarios	20	7	5	8	+7	26
12	Águilas Doradas	19	7	5	7	-5	26
12	Bucaramanga	20	6	8	6	+7	26
14	Llaneros	20	5	10	5	-2	25
15	Fortaleza FC	19	5	7	7	-5	22
16	Jaguares	20	5	3	12	-15	18
17	Alianza Valledupar	19	3	8	8	-14	17
18	Chico	19	5	2	12	-17	17
19	Cucuta	19	3	7	9	-13	16
20	Deportivo Pereira	20	1	7	12	-18	10

Team Insights

Atletico Nacional

●Atletico Nacional have been undefeated in their last 3 matches.
●Atletico Nacional have been undefeated in their last 17 home matches.
●Atletico Nacional failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 away matches.
●Atletico Nacional have kept a clean sheet in 9 of their 17 home matches.
●Atletico Nacional have scored in 15 of their 17 home matches.
●Atletico Nacional failed to keep a clean sheet in 16 of their 19 away matches.
●Atletico Nacional have won 11 of their 19 away matches.
●74% of Atletico Nacional's goals conceded were conceded away.
●Atletico Nacional have conceded 65% of their goals in the first half.

Independiente Medellin

●Independiente Medellin failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 7 matches.
●Independiente Medellin failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 home matches.
●Independiente Medellin failed to keep a clean sheet in 13 of their 17 home matches.
●Independiente Medellin have scored in 15 of their 17 home matches.
●Independiente Medellin failed to keep a clean sheet in 12 of their 15 away matches.
●Independiente Medellin have won 6 of their 15 away matches.
●Independiente Medellin have scored in 12 of their 15 away matches.
●Independiente Medellin have conceded 63% of their goals in the first half.

Atletico Nacional

DHDeportes Tolima6º0–0

DHDeportes Tolima8º0–0

DHDeportes Tolima6º0–0

DHDeportes Tolima4º0–0

DHDeportes Tolima3º0–0

WHJunior2º3–1

WHJunior17º3–1

WHJunior2º3–1

WHJunior16º3–1

WHJunior2º3–1

Independiente Medellin

WAAmerica de Cali4º2–1

WAAmerica de Cali1º2–1

WAAmerica de Cali4º2–1

WAAmerica de Cali1º2–1

WAAmerica de Cali4º2–1

LHSanta Fe7º0–1

LHSanta Fe6º0–1

LHSanta Fe7º0–1

LHSanta Fe8º0–1

LHSanta Fe5º0–1

Season Schedule

Atletico Nacional

Deportes Tolima0–0

Junior3–1

Millonarios1–1

Llaneros0–2

Internacional de Bogota3–2

Águilas Doradas2–0

–A

Chico17/10

–A

Cucuta20/10

–H

Deportivo Pasto23/10

Independiente Medellin

America de Cali2–1

Santa Fe0–1

Millonarios2–2

Junior0–2

Jaguares2–1

Bucaramanga2–2

–H

Once Caldas18/10

–A

Atletico Nacional25/10

–A

Internacional de Bogota29/10

Top Scorers

Atletico Nacional

A. Morelos17 ⚽

J. Rengifo8 ⚽

M. Moreno8 ⚽

A. Sarmiento7 ⚽

E. Cardona5 ⚽

C. Arango2 ⚽

Independiente Medellin

J. Montano8 ⚽

F. Fydriszewski6 ⚽

D. Moreno6 ⚽

F. Chaverra4 ⚽

H. Palacios4 ⚽

D. Catano3 ⚽

Cards Given

Atletico Nacional

Alfredo Morelos8 🟨

Milton Casco7 🟨

Edwin Cardona7 🟨

Andrés Román7 🟨

Juan Zapata7 🟨

Jorman Campuzano5 🟨

Independiente Medellin

Francisco Chaverra6 🟨

Yony González6 🟨

Didier Moreno6 🟨

Francisco Fydriszewski5 🟨

Alexis Serna5 🟨

Hayen Palacios5 🟨

Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin — Primera A

Unlock all Match Predictions

Season Statistics

Home vs Away

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions

1st Half / 2nd Half

Recent Venue Form

Number of Corners

Team Corners

Head to Head · 42 matches

Team Insights

Season Schedule

Top Scorers

Cards Given