Leon vs Toluca — Liga MX
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Leon and Toluca meet in the Liga MX 2026 season on 24 October 2026. Leon have recorded 11 wins from 19 matches this season (58% win rate), averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 53% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 47%; and clean sheets in 37% of games. Toluca have won 60% of their 25 matches, with 2.20 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 48%, Over 2.5 at 64%, and clean sheets at 44%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.76 for Leon and 1.51 for Toluca. The models give Leon a 39% win probability, with a draw at 25% and an Toluca win at 36%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 60% and BTTS at 62%.
Season Statistics
Leon—
Toluca14º
Position
3º
1.00
PPG
2.00
33%
Win %
67%
1.00
Goals / game
2.00
1.33
Conceded / game
1.00
53%
BTTS %
48%
37%
Clean sheet %
44%
47%
Over 2.5 %
64%
4.5
Avg corners
5.3
14.4
Avg shots
18.6
6.0
Avg shots on target
6.8
2.0
Avg yellow cards
1.7
12.1
Avg fouls
12.3
47.5%
Avg possession
59.0%
Home vs Away
Leon
Home (2)
—
Toluca
Away (1)
1.50
PPG
3.00
50%
Win %
100%
1.50
Goals / game
2.00
1.50
Conceded / game
0.00
40%
BTTS %
44%
60%
Clean sheet %
44%
50%
Over 2.5 %
56%
4.5
Avg corners
5.3
14.4
Avg shots
18.6
6.0
Avg shots on target
6.8
2.0
Avg yellow cards
1.7
47.5%
Avg possession
59.0%
Goals Scored
| Leon | Home | Away | Toluca | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 84% | 90% | 78% | 88% | 94% | 78% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 47% | 60% | 33% | 68% | 75% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 21% | 30% | 11% | 40% | 50% | 22% |
| Failed To Score | 16% | 10% | 22% | 12% | 6% | 22% |
Goals Conceded
| Leon | Home | Away | Toluca | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 63% | 40% | 89% | 56% | 56% | 56% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 37% | 40% | 33% | 32% | 31% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 16% | 20% | 11% | 16% | 13% | 22% |
| Clean Sheets | 37% | 60% | 11% | 44% | 44% | 44% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Leon | Toluca | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 95% | 96% |
| Over 1.5 | 74% | 84% |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 44% |
| Over 4.5 | 21% | 20% |
| BTTS | 53% | 48% |
| BTTS & Win | 26% | 20% |
| BTTS & Draw | 11% | 8% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 42% | 44% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 5% | 20% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Leon | Toluca | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 25% | 54% |
| Draw 1st Half | 50% | 42% |
| Loss 1st Half | 25% | 4% |
| Scored 1st Half | 38% | 63% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 38% | 25% |
| Win 2nd Half | 50% | 54% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 25% | 21% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 25% | 25% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 81% | 75% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 56% | 42% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 63% | 67% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 13% | 33% |
Recent Venue Form
Leon (H)W
Atletico San Luis2–0
Atletico San Luis2–0W
Club America1–0
Club America1–0W
Real Salt Lake3–0
Real Salt Lake3–0W
Monterrey2–0
Monterrey2–0W
CF Pachuca1–0
CF Pachuca1–0L
Atlas2–3
Atlas2–3Toluca (A)W
Puebla1–0
Puebla1–0W
Club Queretaro2–1
Club Queretaro2–1D
Atlante FC0–0
Atlante FC0–0W
Guadalajara Chivas2–0
Guadalajara Chivas2–0DAtlante FC3–3
Atlante FC3–3L
Cancún0–1
Cancún0–1Number of Corners
10.5
Corners / Match
13 games
League Avg
10.8
74 games
10.2
Corners / Match
20 games
| Match Corners | Leon | Toluca | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 100% | 80% | 86% |
| Over 7 | 100% | 75% | 82% |
| Over 8 | 85% | 70% | 73% |
| Over 9 | 69% | 55% | 68% |
| Over 10 | 38% | 50% | 51% |
| Over 11 | 23% | 35% | 42% |
| Over 12 | 23% | 35% | 35% |
| Over 13 | 8% | 20% | 24% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Leon | Toluca |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 4.5 | 5.3 |
| Corners Against / Match | 6.0 | 4.9 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 77% | 90% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 62% | 80% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 46% | 65% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 85% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 69% | 55% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 62% | 50% |
Head to Head · 21 matches
6
Leon
29%
8
Draws
38%
7
Toluca
33%
81%
Over 1.5
17/21
71%
Over 2.5
15/21
57%
Over 3.5
12/21
67%
BTTS
14/21
03/09/26Leon
Toluca
2–0Leon26/04/26Leon
Toluca
4–1Leon05/10/25Toluca
Leon
2–4Toluca09/02/25Toluca
Leon
3–3Toluca02/11/24Leon
Toluca
2–2Leon03/02/24Leon
Toluca
4–1Leon21/10/23Toluca
Leon
1–0Toluca29/01/23Leon
Toluca
0–0Leon27/07/22Toluca
Leon
0–1Toluca02/05/22Toluca
Leon
4–4Toluca31/10/21Leon
Toluca
0–0Leon10/05/21Toluca
Leon
2–2Toluca05/04/21Toluca
Leon
2–1Toluca08/11/20Leon
Toluca
2–2Leon10/11/19Toluca
Leon
4–0Toluca17/02/19Toluca
Leon
3–0Toluca26/08/18Leon
Toluca
1–2Leon14/01/18Toluca
Leon
3–1Toluca30/07/17Leon
Toluca
3–1Leon19/03/17Toluca
Leon
2–3Toluca| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +11 | 19 |
| 2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | +9 | 18 |
| 3 | Club America | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +9 | 17 |
| 4 |  Cruz Azul | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 15 |
| 5 | Club Queretaro | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 14 |
| 6 |  Club Tijuana | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 14 |
| 7 | Leon | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 14 |
| 8 | Puebla | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
| 9 | Atlas | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 14 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +4 | 13 |
| 11 | CF Pachuca | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +5 | 12 |
| 12 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 13 | Atletico San Luis | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 14 | Atlante FC | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 |  Necaxa | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 16 |  Tigres UANL | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 17 |  Santos Laguna | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 7 |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -17 | 3 |
Team Insights
Leon- ●Leon have scored in each of their last 7 matches.
- ●Leon have won their last 3 home matches.
- ●Leon have kept a clean sheet in their last 3 home matches.
- ●Leon have scored in each of their last 4 home matches.
- ●Leon failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 away matches.
- ●Leon have scored in each of their last 4 away matches.
- ●Leon failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 5 away matches.
- ●70% of Leon's goals conceded were conceded away.
Toluca- ●Toluca have scored in each of their last 5 matches.
- ●Toluca have scored in each of their last 5 home matches.
- ●Toluca have won their last 2 away matches.
- ●Toluca failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 5 home matches.
- ●75% of Toluca's goals have been scored at home.
- ●89% of Toluca's goals conceded were conceded at home.
- ●Toluca have scored 55% of their goals in the first half.
Season Schedule
LeonDAClub Queretaro1–1
Club Queretaro1–1WHAtletico San Luis2–0
Atletico San Luis2–0LAU.N.A.M. - Pumas1–3
U.N.A.M. - Pumas1–3DAAtlante FC1–1
Atlante FC1–1WHMonterrey2–0
Monterrey2–0WANecaxa2–1
Necaxa2–1–HFC Juarez28/09
FC Juarez28/09–APuebla10/10
Puebla10/10–HClub America18/10
Club America18/10TolucaLHSantos Laguna2–3
Santos Laguna2–3WAPuebla1–0
Puebla1–0WHAtlas5–2
Atlas5–2WHFC Juarez4–0
FC Juarez4–0WAClub Queretaro2–1
Club Queretaro2–1DAAtlante FC0–0
Atlante FC0–0–ACruz Azul26/09
Cruz Azul26/09–ATigres UANL10/10
Tigres UANL10/10–HAtletico San Luis18/10
Atletico San Luis18/10Top Scorers
LeonD. Arcila7 ⚽
D. Cambindo5 ⚽
J. P. Dominguez Chonteco2 ⚽
J. Cortizo2 ⚽
Jose Alvarado1 ⚽
A. Alvarado1 ⚽
TolucaPaulinho8 ⚽
Helinho7 ⚽
F. Vinas5 ⚽
J. Gallardo5 ⚽
A. Vega4 ⚽
J. Angulo3 ⚽
Cards Given
LeonJ. Romana5 🟨
S. Vegas4 🟨
D. Arcila3 🟨
J. Guevara3 🟨
B. Colula3 🟨
R. Echeverria3 🟨
TolucaN. Castro3 🟨
Bruno Mendez3 🟨
Diego Barbosa3 🟨
F. Pereira2 🟨
Bruno Méndez2 🟨
Everardo López2 🟨