Toluca vs Monterrey — Liga MX
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Toluca and Monterrey meet in the Liga MX 2026 season on 8 November 2026. Toluca have recorded 15 wins from 28 matches this season (54% win rate), averaging 2.18 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 54% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 68%; and clean sheets in 39% of games. Monterrey have won 48% of their 25 matches, with 1.76 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 72%, Over 2.5 at 60%, and clean sheets at 20%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.86 for Toluca and 1.48 for Monterrey. The models give Toluca a 51% win probability, with a draw at 23% and an Monterrey win at 26%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 63% and BTTS at 64%.
Season Statistics
Toluca—
Monterrey3º
Position
5º
2.00
PPG
2.00
67%
Win %
67%
2.00
Goals / game
2.00
1.00
Conceded / game
1.33
54%
BTTS %
72%
39%
Clean sheet %
20%
68%
Over 2.5 %
60%
5.3
Avg corners
5.9
18.5
Avg shots
15.8
6.8
Avg shots on target
5.4
1.8
Avg yellow cards
2.1
12.8
Avg fouls
12.0
59.1%
Avg possession
55.0%
Home vs Away
Toluca
Home (2)
—
Monterrey
Away (2)
1.50
PPG
1.50
50%
Win %
50%
2.00
Goals / game
1.50
1.50
Conceded / game
1.00
50%
BTTS %
71%
44%
Clean sheet %
14%
69%
Over 2.5 %
50%
5.3
Avg corners
5.9
18.5
Avg shots
15.8
6.8
Avg shots on target
5.4
1.8
Avg yellow cards
2.1
59.1%
Avg possession
55.0%
Goals Scored
| Toluca | Home | Away | Monterrey | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 89% | 94% | 83% | 88% | 91% | 86% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 68% | 75% | 58% | 56% | 64% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 39% | 50% | 25% | 16% | 18% | 14% |
| Failed To Score | 11% | 6% | 17% | 12% | 9% | 14% |
Goals Conceded
| Toluca | Home | Away | Monterrey | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 61% | 56% | 67% | 80% | 73% | 86% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 39% | 31% | 50% | 36% | 36% | 36% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 21% | 13% | 33% | 12% | 18% | 7% |
| Clean Sheets | 39% | 44% | 33% | 20% | 27% | 14% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Toluca | Monterrey | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 96% | 96% |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 92% |
| Over 2.5 | 68% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 46% | 28% |
| Over 4.5 | 25% | 20% |
| BTTS | 54% | 72% |
| BTTS & Win | 18% | 32% |
| BTTS & Draw | 11% | 20% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 50% | 56% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 18% | 4% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Toluca | Monterrey | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 48% | 42% |
| Draw 1st Half | 41% | 29% |
| Loss 1st Half | 11% | 29% |
| Scored 1st Half | 59% | 50% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 30% | 54% |
| Win 2nd Half | 52% | 38% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 22% | 33% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 26% | 29% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 78% | 67% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 48% | 54% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 67% | 79% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 37% | 33% |
Recent Venue Form
Toluca (H)L
Santos Laguna2–3
Santos Laguna2–3W
Atlas5–2
Atlas5–2WMonterrey2–0
Monterrey2–0W
Leon2–0
Leon2–0W
FC Juarez4–0
FC Juarez4–0W
Austin2–0
Austin2–0Monterrey (A)D
Club America1–1
Club America1–1L
Atlante FC2–4
Atlante FC2–4LToluca0–2
Toluca0–2DClub America2–2
Club America2–2LLeon0–2
Leon0–2W
Inter Miami2–1
Inter Miami2–1Number of Corners
10.2
Corners / Match
22 games
League Avg
10.9
92 games
9.9
Corners / Match
20 games
| Match Corners | Toluca | Monterrey | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 82% | 85% | 87% |
| Over 7 | 77% | 80% | 84% |
| Over 8 | 73% | 60% | 73% |
| Over 9 | 55% | 50% | 66% |
| Over 10 | 50% | 30% | 52% |
| Over 11 | 32% | 25% | 42% |
| Over 12 | 32% | 25% | 36% |
| Over 13 | 18% | 20% | 26% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Toluca | Monterrey |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 5.3 | 5.9 |
| Corners Against / Match | 4.9 | 4.0 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 91% | 80% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 82% | 65% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 68% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 68% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 59% | 55% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 50% | 40% |
Head to Head · 26 matches
10
Toluca
38%
6
Draws
23%
10
Monterrey
38%
85%
Over 1.5
22/26
54%
Over 2.5
14/26
27%
Over 3.5
7/26
69%
BTTS
18/26
03/10/26Toluca
Monterrey
2–1Toluca07/09/26Monterrey
Toluca
2–0Monterrey11/01/26Toluca
Monterrey
0–1Toluca07/12/25Monterrey
Toluca
3–2Monterrey04/12/25Toluca
Monterrey
1–0Toluca25/09/25Monterrey
Toluca
6–2Monterrey11/05/25Monterrey
Toluca
2–1Monterrey08/05/25Toluca
Monterrey
3–2Toluca19/01/25Monterrey
Toluca
1–1Monterrey01/09/24Toluca
Monterrey
1–2Toluca19/02/24Toluca
Monterrey
0–0Toluca31/08/23Monterrey
Toluca
1–0Monterrey06/02/23Toluca
Monterrey
2–1Toluca18/08/22Monterrey
Toluca
1–1Monterrey07/04/22Monterrey
Toluca
2–2Monterrey23/09/21Toluca
Monterrey
2–0Toluca11/04/21Monterrey
Toluca
1–2Monterrey29/07/20Toluca
Monterrey
3–1Toluca29/02/20Monterrey
Toluca
2–0Monterrey18/08/19Toluca
Monterrey
2–0Toluca| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +11 | 21 |
| 2 | Toluca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | +10 | 20 |
| 3 |  Club Queretaro | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +7 | 20 |
| 4 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | +7 | 19 |
| 5 | Leon | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | +3 | 18 |
| 6 | Atlas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 18 |
| 7 |  Cruz Azul | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 17 |
| 8 |  Club Tijuana | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 15 |
| 9 |  Puebla | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | +2 | 14 |
| 11 |  CF Pachuca | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | +4 | 13 |
| 12 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 |  Tigres UANL | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 | Santos Laguna | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 |  Atletico San Luis | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 17 |  Necaxa | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 9 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -18 | 4 |
Team Insights
Toluca- ●Toluca have failed to win in their last 3 matches.
- ●Toluca have scored in each of their last 7 matches.
- ●Toluca have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 matches.
- ●Toluca have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 matches.
- ●Toluca have scored in each of their last 5 home matches.
- ●Toluca have scored in each of their last 4 away matches.
- ●Toluca failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 5 home matches.
- ●Toluca have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Toluca have won 3 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Toluca have scored in 5 of their 6 away matches.
Monterrey- ●Monterrey have kept a clean sheet in their last 2 home matches.
- ●Monterrey failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 5 away matches.
- ●65% of Monterrey's goals have been scored at home.
- ●Monterrey have scored 65% of their goals in the first half.
Season Schedule
TolucaLATigres UANL2–3
Tigres UANL2–3DACruz Azul3–3
Cruz Azul3–3LHSantos Laguna2–3
Santos Laguna2–3WAPuebla1–0
Puebla1–0WHAtlas5–2
Atlas5–2WHFC Juarez4–0
FC Juarez4–0–HAtletico San Luis18/10
Atletico San Luis18/10–HClub Tijuana22/10
Club Tijuana22/10–ALeon24/10
Leon24/10MonterreyDAClub America1–1
Club America1–1LAAtlante FC2–4
Atlante FC2–4WHCruz Azul1–0
Cruz Azul1–0DHTigres UANL0–0
Tigres UANL0–0LHAtletico San Luis1–3
Atletico San Luis1–3LALeon0–2
Leon0–2–HCF Pachuca19/10
CF Pachuca19/10–APuebla22/10
Puebla22/10–HGuadalajara Chivas25/10
Guadalajara Chivas25/10Top Scorers
TolucaPaulinho8 ⚽
Helinho7 ⚽
F. Vinas5 ⚽
J. Gallardo5 ⚽
A. Vega4 ⚽
Alexis Vega3 ⚽
MonterreyL. Ocampos8 ⚽
H. Cuypers5 ⚽
D. Rossi5 ⚽
O. Pineda3 ⚽
J. Corona3 ⚽
R. de la Rosa3 ⚽
Cards Given
TolucaDiego Barbosa4 🟨
N. Castro3 🟨
Bruno Mendez3 🟨
Antonio Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich3 🟨
Franco Romero3 🟨
Everardo López2 🟨
MonterreyC. Salcedo4 🟨
Santiago Mele3 🟨
J. Rodriguez3 🟨
César Garza2 🟨
Jorge Rodríguez2 🟨
L. Ocampos2 🟨