Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia — First League
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Cherno More Varna and Septemvri Sofia meet in the First League 2026 season on 24 October 2026. Cherno More Varna have recorded 10 wins from 26 matches this season (38% win rate), averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 38% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 46%; and clean sheets in 35% of games. Septemvri Sofia have won 27% of their 22 matches, with 1.05 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 50%, Over 2.5 at 64%, and clean sheets at 23%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.60 for Cherno More Varna and 1.25 for Septemvri Sofia. The models give Cherno More Varna a 47% win probability, with a draw at 25% and an Septemvri Sofia win at 27%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 54% and BTTS at 57%.
Season Statistics
Cherno More Varna—
Septemvri Sofia14º
Position
13º
0.55
PPG
0.73
9%
Win %
18%
1.00
Goals / game
0.91
2.00
Conceded / game
1.91
38%
BTTS %
50%
35%
Clean sheet %
23%
46%
Over 2.5 %
64%
4.5
Avg corners
5.8
10.0
Avg shots
10.3
4.8
Avg shots on target
4.3
3.0
Avg yellow cards
3.1
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
49.8%
Avg possession
56.3%
Home vs Away
Cherno More Varna
Home (5)
—
Septemvri Sofia
Away (5)
0.80
PPG
0.80
20%
Win %
20%
1.40
Goals / game
0.80
2.20
Conceded / game
1.60
36%
BTTS %
50%
36%
Clean sheet %
25%
43%
Over 2.5 %
50%
4.5
Avg corners
5.8
10.0
Avg shots
10.3
4.8
Avg shots on target
4.3
3.0
Avg yellow cards
3.1
49.8%
Avg possession
56.3%
Goals Scored
| Cherno More | Home | Away | Septemvri Sofia | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 69% | 64% | 75% | 73% | 71% | 75% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 31% | 36% | 25% | 27% | 43% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 15% | 14% | 17% | 5% | 7% | 0% |
| Failed To Score | 31% | 36% | 25% | 27% | 29% | 25% |
Goals Conceded
| Cherno More | Home | Away | Septemvri Sofia | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 65% | 64% | 67% | 77% | 79% | 75% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 31% | 36% | 25% | 59% | 64% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 19% | 14% | 25% | 36% | 50% | 13% |
| Clean Sheets | 35% | 36% | 33% | 23% | 21% | 25% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Cherno More | Septemvri Sofia | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 96% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 62% | 82% |
| Over 2.5 | 46% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 23% |
| Over 4.5 | 15% | 14% |
| BTTS | 38% | 50% |
| BTTS & Win | 8% | 5% |
| BTTS & Draw | 19% | 9% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 27% | 41% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 19% | 23% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Cherno More | Septemvri Sofia | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 31% | 19% |
| Draw 1st Half | 27% | 38% |
| Loss 1st Half | 42% | 43% |
| Scored 1st Half | 38% | 33% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 46% | 57% |
| Win 2nd Half | 35% | 24% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 38% | 24% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 27% | 52% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 46% | 43% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 38% | 71% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 77% | 76% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 27% | 24% |
Recent Venue Form
Cherno More (H)L
Levski Sofia0–2
Levski Sofia0–2W
Dunav Ruse1–0
Dunav Ruse1–0D
Lokomotiv Sofia2–2
Lokomotiv Sofia2–2WDunav Ruse3–1
Dunav Ruse3–1L
Ludogorets2–3
Ludogorets2–3L
Spartak Varna0–3
Spartak Varna0–3Septemvri Sofia (A)L
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa1–2
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa1–2LLudogorets1–2
Ludogorets1–2D
Slavia Sofia1–1
Slavia Sofia1–1WSpartak Varna1–0
Spartak Varna1–0LLevski Sofia0–3
Levski Sofia0–3L
Lokomotiv Plovdiv1–2
Lokomotiv Plovdiv1–2Number of Corners
8.0
Corners / Match
4 games
League Avg
9.3
29 games
9.5
Corners / Match
4 games
| Match Corners | Cherno More | Septemvri Sofia | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 25% | 75% | 76% |
| Over 7 | 25% | 75% | 69% |
| Over 8 | 25% | 75% | 62% |
| Over 9 | 25% | 75% | 45% |
| Over 10 | 25% | 50% | 34% |
| Over 11 | 25% | 0% | 28% |
| Over 12 | 25% | 0% | 17% |
| Over 13 | 25% | 0% | 14% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Cherno More | Septemvri Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 4.5 | 5.8 |
| Corners Against / Match | 3.5 | 3.8 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 75% | 75% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 50% | 75% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 25% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 75% | 75% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 50% | 75% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 25% | 25% |
Head to Head · 8 matches
4
Cherno More
50%
2
Draws
25%
2
Septemvri Sofia
25%
88%
Over 1.5
7/8
63%
Over 2.5
5/8
13%
Over 3.5
1/8
50%
BTTS
4/8
07/03/26Cherno More Varna
Septemvri Sofia
0–3Cherno More Varna27/09/25Septemvri Sofia
Cherno More Varna
1–1Septemvri Sofia29/11/24Cherno More Varna
Septemvri Sofia
1–2Cherno More Varna29/07/24Septemvri Sofia
Cherno More Varna
2–0Septemvri Sofia17/03/23Septemvri Sofia
Cherno More Varna
3–0Septemvri Sofia05/09/22Cherno More Varna
Septemvri Sofia
0–0Cherno More Varna24/11/18Cherno More Varna
Septemvri Sofia
2–1Cherno More Varna04/08/18Septemvri Sofia
Cherno More Varna
1–5Septemvri Sofia| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | +19 | 28 |
| 2 |  CSKA Sofia | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | +18 | 27 |
| 3 | Ludogorets | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | +14 | 26 |
| 4 |  CSKA 1948 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | +8 | 22 |
| 5 |  Botev Plovdiv | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | +3 | 19 |
| 6 |  Arda Kardzhali | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 17 |
| 7 | Spartak Varna | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 13 |
| 8 | Slavia Sofia | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 |  Botev Vratsa | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 9 |
| 10 | Dunav Ruse | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -8 | 8 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -8 | 8 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Septemvri Sofia | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Cherno More Varna | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -11 | 6 |
Team Insights
Cherno More- ●Cherno More Varna have failed to win in their last 5 matches.
- ●Cherno More Varna failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 11 matches.
- ●Cherno More Varna failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 home matches.
- ●Cherno More Varna failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 6 away matches.
- ●Cherno More Varna failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 5 home matches.
- ●Cherno More Varna failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Cherno More Varna have lost 4 of their 6 away matches.
- ●64% of Cherno More Varna's goals have been scored at home.
Septemvri Sofia- ●Septemvri Sofia have failed to win in their last 5 matches.
- ●Septemvri Sofia have lost their last 4 matches.
- ●Septemvri Sofia failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 matches.
- ●Septemvri Sofia have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 4 matches.
- ●Septemvri Sofia have lost their last 3 home matches.
- ●Septemvri Sofia failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Septemvri Sofia have lost 4 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Septemvri Sofia failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 5 away matches.
Season Schedule
Cherno MoreLHLevski Sofia0–2
Levski Sofia0–2DAArda Kardzhali1–1
Arda Kardzhali1–1DHLokomotiv Sofia2–2
Lokomotiv Sofia2–2LALokomotiv Plovdiv0–1
Lokomotiv Plovdiv0–1LACSKA Sofia1–3
CSKA Sofia1–3WHDunav Ruse3–1
Dunav Ruse3–1–HSeptemvri Sofia24/10
Septemvri Sofia24/10–ASlavia Sofia31/10
Slavia Sofia31/10–HBotev Vratsa07/11
Botev Vratsa07/11Septemvri SofiaLHDunav Ruse2–3
Dunav Ruse2–3LHBotev Plovdiv0–3
Botev Plovdiv0–3LALudogorets1–2
Ludogorets1–2LHBotev Vratsa2–3
Botev Vratsa2–3DASlavia Sofia1–1
Slavia Sofia1–1WHCSKA 19481–0
CSKA 19481–0–ACherno More Varna24/10
Cherno More Varna24/10–HLokomotiv Sofia31/10
Lokomotiv Sofia31/10–AArda Kardzhali07/11
Arda Kardzhali07/11Top Scorers
Cherno MoreG. Lazarov4 ⚽
D. Teles2 ⚽
D. Zaimov2 ⚽
J. Padilla2 ⚽
P. Andreev2 ⚽
E. Nyagolov1 ⚽
Septemvri SofiaV. Dobrev3 ⚽
Frantzety Herard2 ⚽
Andre Liberal1 ⚽
F. Herard1 ⚽
Galin Ivanov1 ⚽
N. Fontaine1 ⚽
Cards Given
Cherno MoreL. Squadrone4 🟨
D. Teles3 🟨
Asen Donchev2 🟨
B. Beyhan2 🟨
Ertan Tombak2 🟨
N. Zlatev2 🟨
Septemvri SofiaS. Wade5 🟨
Y. Baurenski3 🟨
K. Onasci3 🟨
M. Hristov2 🟨
G. Ivanov2 🟨
E. Ribeiro2 🟨