De Graafschap vs Waalwijk — Eerste Divisie
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De Graafschap and Waalwijk meet in the Eerste Divisie 2026 season on 23 October 2026. De Graafschap have recorded 5 wins from 16 matches this season (31% win rate), averaging 1.63 goals scored and 2.88 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 88% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 88%; and clean sheets in 6% of games. Waalwijk have won 28% of their 18 matches, with 1.61 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 67%, Over 2.5 at 50%, and clean sheets at 17%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.85 for De Graafschap and 1.46 for Waalwijk. The models give De Graafschap a 45% win probability, with a draw at 24% and an Waalwijk win at 31%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 64% and BTTS at 63%.
Season Statistics
De Graafschap—
Waalwijk16º
Position
9º
1.10
PPG
1.40
30%
Win %
30%
1.30
Goals / game
1.90
2.30
Conceded / game
1.50
88%
BTTS %
67%
6%
Clean sheet %
17%
88%
Over 2.5 %
50%
4.6
Avg corners
4.0
14.5
Avg shots
13.8
4.3
Avg shots on target
5.2
2.2
Avg yellow cards
1.7
12.2
Avg fouls
12.3
53.4%
Avg possession
49.9%
Home vs Away
De Graafschap
Home (5)
—
Waalwijk
Away (5)
1.20
PPG
1.00
40%
Win %
20%
1.40
Goals / game
0.80
2.40
Conceded / game
1.40
89%
BTTS %
33%
11%
Clean sheet %
33%
89%
Over 2.5 %
17%
4.6
Avg corners
4.0
14.5
Avg shots
13.8
4.3
Avg shots on target
5.2
2.2
Avg yellow cards
1.7
53.4%
Avg possession
49.9%
Goals Scored
| De Graafschap | Home | Away | Waalwijk | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 94% | 100% | 86% | 78% | 92% | 50% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 50% | 44% | 57% | 44% | 58% | 17% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 13% | 22% | 0% | 17% | 25% | 0% |
| Failed To Score | 6% | 0% | 14% | 22% | 8% | 50% |
Goals Conceded
| De Graafschap | Home | Away | Waalwijk | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 94% | 89% | 100% | 83% | 92% | 67% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 69% | 78% | 57% | 44% | 50% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 38% | 44% | 29% | 6% | 0% | 17% |
| Clean Sheets | 6% | 11% | 0% | 17% | 8% | 33% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| De Graafschap | Waalwijk | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 94% |
| Over 1.5 | 94% | 94% |
| Over 2.5 | 88% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 28% |
| Over 4.5 | 44% | 11% |
| BTTS | 88% | 67% |
| BTTS & Win | 25% | 17% |
| BTTS & Draw | 13% | 44% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 81% | 39% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 6% | 11% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| De Graafschap | Waalwijk | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 20% | 33% |
| Draw 1st Half | 27% | 44% |
| Loss 1st Half | 53% | 22% |
| Scored 1st Half | 67% | 44% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 87% | 39% |
| Win 2nd Half | 27% | 44% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 47% | 17% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 27% | 39% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 53% | 56% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 47% | 61% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 100% | 67% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 80% | 28% |
Recent Venue Form
De Graafschap (H)W
Jong Utrecht2–1
Jong Utrecht2–1W
Den Bosch1–0
Den Bosch1–0L
NAC Breda1–2
NAC Breda1–2L
Almere City FC1–4
Almere City FC1–4L
Jong AZ2–5
Jong AZ2–5L
Excelsior1–5
Excelsior1–5Waalwijk (A)L
Heracles0–3
Heracles0–3L
Roda0–2
Roda0–2W
Jong Ajax2–0
Jong Ajax2–0D
Helmond Sport1–1
Helmond Sport1–1D
Vitesse1–1
Vitesse1–1D
Kozakken Boys0–0
Kozakken Boys0–0Number of Corners
11.0
Corners / Match
10 games
League Avg
10.2
100 games
8.9
Corners / Match
10 games
| Match Corners | De Graafschap | Waalwijk | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 90% | 90% | 92% |
| Over 7 | 80% | 60% | 83% |
| Over 8 | 70% | 50% | 73% |
| Over 9 | 60% | 30% | 52% |
| Over 10 | 50% | 20% | 38% |
| Over 11 | 40% | 20% | 26% |
| Over 12 | 30% | 20% | 21% |
| Over 13 | 30% | 0% | 15% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | De Graafschap | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 4.6 | 4.0 |
| Corners Against / Match | 6.4 | 4.9 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 80% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 60% | 60% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 50% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 90% | 90% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 90% | 70% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 80% | 60% |
Head to Head · 8 matches
3
De Graafschap
38%
1
Draws
13%
4
Waalwijk
50%
63%
Over 1.5
5/8
63%
Over 2.5
5/8
50%
Over 3.5
4/8
50%
BTTS
4/8
23/01/26Waalwijk
De Graafschap
2–4Waalwijk09/11/25De Graafschap
Waalwijk
1–4De Graafschap30/03/18Waalwijk
De Graafschap
1–0Waalwijk02/09/17De Graafschap
Waalwijk
0–0De Graafschap07/04/17Waalwijk
De Graafschap
4–0Waalwijk25/11/16De Graafschap
Waalwijk
2–1De Graafschap17/03/12De Graafschap
Waalwijk
1–0De Graafschap16/12/11Waalwijk
De Graafschap
1–3Waalwijk| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | +19 | 25 |
| 2 | Almere City FC | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | +15 | 22 |
| 3 |  VVV Venlo | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | +12 | 21 |
| 4 |  Emmen | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | +4 | 19 |
| 5 | NAC Breda | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 17 |
| 6 | Roda | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 16 |
| 7 |  MVV | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 16 |
| 8 |  FC Volendam | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | +5 | 15 |
| 9 | Waalwijk | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | +4 | 14 |
| 10 | Vitesse | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 | Jong AZ | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | +4 | 13 |
| 12 |  Jong PSV U21 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 |  FC OSS | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 12 |
| 14 | Den Bosch | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 11 |
| 15 |  FC Eindhoven | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 16 | De Graafschap | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 11 |
| 17 | Helmond Sport | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 9 |
| 18 | Jong Ajax | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 8 |
| 19 |  Dordrecht | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -14 | 8 |
| 20 | Jong Utrecht | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -7 | 7 |
Team Insights
De Graafschap- ●De Graafschap have been undefeated in their last 3 matches.
- ●De Graafschap have scored in each of their last 5 matches.
- ●De Graafschap have won their last 2 home matches.
- ●De Graafschap have scored in each of their last 5 home matches.
- ●De Graafschap failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 away matches.
- ●De Graafschap failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 5 home matches.
- ●De Graafschap failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 5 away matches.
Waalwijk- ●Waalwijk have failed to win in their last 3 matches.
- ●Waalwijk have been undefeated in their last 5 home matches.
- ●Waalwijk failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 home matches.
- ●Waalwijk have scored in each of their last 5 home matches.
- ●Waalwijk have lost their last 2 away matches.
- ●Waalwijk failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 5 home matches.
- ●Waalwijk failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 5 away matches.
- ●79% of Waalwijk's goals have been scored at home.
Season Schedule
De GraafschapWHJong Utrecht2–1
Jong Utrecht2–1DAFC Eindhoven2–2
FC Eindhoven2–2WHDen Bosch1–0
Den Bosch1–0LHNAC Breda1–2
NAC Breda1–2WAEmmen2–1
Emmen2–1LAHeracles0–5
Heracles0–5–AJong Ajax19/10
Jong Ajax19/10–HWaalwijk23/10
Waalwijk23/10–AFC Volendam30/10
FC Volendam30/10WaalwijkLAHeracles0–3
Heracles0–3DHEmmen1–1
Emmen1–1LARoda0–2
Roda0–2WHMVV6–1
MVV6–1WAJong Ajax2–0
Jong Ajax2–0WHNAC Breda4–2
NAC Breda4–2–HFC Volendam18/10
FC Volendam18/10–ADe Graafschap23/10
De Graafschap23/10–HAlmere City FC30/10
Almere City FC30/10Top Scorers
De GraafschapF. de Jong5 ⚽
Julian kania3 ⚽
D. Warmerdam2 ⚽
D. Eijken2 ⚽
J. Kania2 ⚽
B. van Zijl1 ⚽
WaalwijkH. van Gemert4 ⚽
K. Varela3 ⚽
Jesse van de Haar3 ⚽
Jordy de Wijs2 ⚽
J. Nap2 ⚽
F. Al Mazyani2 ⚽
Cards Given
De Graafschap4 🟨
Thomas Kok3 🟨
gijs bolk2 🟨
Nolan Martens2 🟨
D. Warmerdam2 🟨
J. Kania1 🟨
WaalwijkLoek Postma3 🟨
J. de Wijs2 🟨
Jesse van de Haar2 🟨
Finn Stokkers1 🟨
J. Nap1 🟨
F. Al Mazyani1 🟨