Matsumoto Yamaga vs Thespakusatsu Gunma — J3 League
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Matsumoto Yamaga and Thespakusatsu Gunma meet in the J3 League 2026 season on 21 October 2026. Matsumoto Yamaga have recorded 11 wins from 34 matches this season (32% win rate), averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 50% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 53%; and clean sheets in 29% of games. Thespakusatsu Gunma have won 29% of their 34 matches, with 1.32 goals scored and 2.06 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 68%, Over 2.5 at 68%, and clean sheets at 9%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.48 for Matsumoto Yamaga and 1.25 for Thespakusatsu Gunma. The models give Matsumoto Yamaga a 44% win probability, with a draw at 27% and an Thespakusatsu Gunma win at 30%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 51% and BTTS at 55%.
Season Statistics
Matsumoto Yamaga—
Thespakusatsu Gunma13º
Position
17º
1.10
PPG
0.90
20%
Win %
30%
0.90
Goals / game
1.00
1.10
Conceded / game
1.90
50%
BTTS %
68%
29%
Clean sheet %
9%
53%
Over 2.5 %
68%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Matsumoto Yamaga
Home (6)
—
Thespakusatsu Gunma
Away (4)
0.83
PPG
0.75
17%
Win %
25%
1.00
Goals / game
0.75
1.50
Conceded / game
1.75
45%
BTTS %
71%
30%
Clean sheet %
6%
50%
Over 2.5 %
76%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Matsumoto Yamaga | Home | Away | Thespakusatsu Gunma | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 68% | 65% | 71% | 74% | 71% | 76% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 44% | 45% | 43% | 32% | 29% | 35% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 24% | 25% | 21% | 15% | 18% | 12% |
| Failed To Score | 32% | 35% | 29% | 26% | 29% | 24% |
Goals Conceded
| Matsumoto Yamaga | Home | Away | Thespakusatsu Gunma | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 71% | 70% | 71% | 91% | 88% | 94% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 32% | 40% | 21% | 56% | 53% | 59% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 12% | 20% | 0% | 38% | 29% | 47% |
| Clean Sheets | 29% | 30% | 29% | 9% | 12% | 6% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Matsumoto Yamaga | Thespakusatsu Gunma | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 88% | 97% |
| Over 1.5 | 68% | 79% |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 68% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 50% |
| Over 4.5 | 15% | 26% |
| BTTS | 50% | 68% |
| BTTS & Win | 15% | 24% |
| BTTS & Draw | 24% | 12% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 41% | 62% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 12% | 6% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Matsumoto Yamaga | Thespakusatsu Gunma | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 35% | 21% |
| Draw 1st Half | 41% | 30% |
| Loss 1st Half | 24% | 48% |
| Scored 1st Half | 50% | 39% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 35% | 64% |
| Win 2nd Half | 32% | 33% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 44% | 24% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 24% | 42% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 56% | 52% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 53% | 55% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 68% | 82% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 29% | 48% |
Recent Venue Form
Matsumoto Yamaga (H)L
Sanfrecce Hiroshima0–1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima0–1W
Kagoshima United1–0
Kagoshima United1–0L
Gainare Tottori0–1
Gainare Tottori0–1W
Albirex Niigata1–0
Albirex Niigata1–0L
Sagamihara1–3
Sagamihara1–3D
Shonan Bellmare3–3
Shonan Bellmare3–3Thespakusatsu Gunma (A)L
Ehime FC1–3
Ehime FC1–3L
Renofa Yamaguchi0–2
Renofa Yamaguchi0–2W
Parceiro Nagano2–1
Parceiro Nagano2–1L
Tokyo Verdy1–4
Tokyo Verdy1–4W
Tohoku Gakuin University3–1
Tohoku Gakuin University3–1LKagoshima United0–1
Kagoshima United0–1Head to Head · 17 matches
8
Matsumoto Yamaga
47%
3
Draws
18%
6
Thespakusatsu Gunma
35%
76%
Over 1.5
13/17
47%
Over 2.5
8/17
29%
Over 3.5
5/17
47%
BTTS
8/17
23/11/25Matsumoto Yamaga
Thespakusatsu Gunma
6–2Matsumoto Yamaga05/07/25Thespakusatsu Gunma
Matsumoto Yamaga
1–3Thespakusatsu Gunma30/10/21Matsumoto Yamaga
Thespakusatsu Gunma
1–0Matsumoto Yamaga25/04/21Thespakusatsu Gunma
Matsumoto Yamaga
1–0Thespakusatsu Gunma02/12/20Matsumoto Yamaga
Thespakusatsu Gunma
1–0Matsumoto Yamaga19/07/20Thespakusatsu Gunma
Matsumoto Yamaga
2–0Thespakusatsu Gunma16/09/17Thespakusatsu Gunma
Matsumoto Yamaga
3–0Thespakusatsu Gunma18/06/17Matsumoto Yamaga
Thespakusatsu Gunma
0–2Matsumoto Yamaga18/09/16Matsumoto Yamaga
Thespakusatsu Gunma
1–1Matsumoto Yamaga23/04/16Thespakusatsu Gunma
Matsumoto Yamaga
2–1Thespakusatsu Gunma31/08/14Matsumoto Yamaga
Thespakusatsu Gunma
1–3Matsumoto Yamaga21/06/14Thespakusatsu Gunma
Matsumoto Yamaga
3–1Thespakusatsu Gunma07/09/13Thespakusatsu Gunma
Matsumoto Yamaga
4–3Thespakusatsu Gunma04/08/13Matsumoto Yamaga
Thespakusatsu Gunma
3–0Matsumoto Yamaga03/05/13Thespakusatsu Gunma
Matsumoto Yamaga
1–1Thespakusatsu Gunma02/09/12Thespakusatsu Gunma
Matsumoto Yamaga
0–2Thespakusatsu Gunma27/05/12Matsumoto Yamaga
Thespakusatsu Gunma
0–0Matsumoto Yamaga| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ehime FC | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | +14 | 23 |
| 2 | Kagoshima United | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 23 |
| 3 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +7 | 20 |
| 4 |  Nara Club | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +5 | 20 |
| 5 | Sagamihara | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | +6 | 18 |
| 6 |  Osaka | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | +9 | 17 |
| 7 |  FC Gifu | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | +10 | 16 |
| 8 |  Kanazawa | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | +3 | 14 |
| 9 |  Roasso Kumamoto | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 10 |  Biwako Shiga | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 | Parceiro Nagano | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Gainare Tottori | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 13 |
| 13 | Matsumoto Yamaga | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 14 |  FC Ryukyu | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 11 |
| 15 |  Tochigi SC | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 16 |  Kitakyushu | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 17 | Thespakusatsu Gunma | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 |  Fukushima United | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 8 |
| 19 |  Kamatamare Sanuki | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -8 | 5 |
| 20 |  Kochi United | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -19 | 5 |
Team Insights
Matsumoto Yamaga- ●Matsumoto Yamaga have been undefeated in their last 4 away matches.
- ●Matsumoto Yamaga failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 6 home matches.
- ●67% of Matsumoto Yamaga's goals have been scored at home.
- ●82% of Matsumoto Yamaga's goals conceded were conceded at home.
Thespakusatsu Gunma- ●Thespakusatsu Gunma have lost their last 2 away matches.
- ●Thespakusatsu Gunma failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Thespakusatsu Gunma have lost 4 of their 6 home matches.
- ●70% of Thespakusatsu Gunma's goals have been scored at home.
- ●Thespakusatsu Gunma have conceded 63% of their goals in the first half.
Season Schedule
Matsumoto YamagaWHKagoshima United1–0
Kagoshima United1–0LHGainare Tottori0–1
Gainare Tottori0–1WATochigi SC2–1
Tochigi SC2–1DARoasso Kumamoto0–0
Roasso Kumamoto0–0LHSagamihara1–3
Sagamihara1–3DHOsaka0–0
Osaka0–0–AParceiro Nagano18/10
Parceiro Nagano18/10–HThespakusatsu Gunma21/10
Thespakusatsu Gunma21/10–HRenofa Yamaguchi25/10
Renofa Yamaguchi25/10Thespakusatsu GunmaWHFC Ryukyu2–1
FC Ryukyu2–1LAEhime FC1–3
Ehime FC1–3LHRoasso Kumamoto0–1
Roasso Kumamoto0–1WHKochi United1–0
Kochi United1–0LARenofa Yamaguchi0–2
Renofa Yamaguchi0–2LHFukushima United1–3
Fukushima United1–3–AGainare Tottori17/10
Gainare Tottori17/10–AMatsumoto Yamaga21/10
Matsumoto Yamaga21/10–HKamatamare Sanuki24/10
Kamatamare Sanuki24/10Top Scorers
Matsumoto YamagaK. Fujieda6 ⚽
K. Murakoshi6 ⚽
K. Kaneko5 ⚽
I. Oda4 ⚽
A. Inoue4 ⚽
T. Kato4 ⚽
Thespakusatsu GunmaT. Nakashima9 ⚽
M. Hyakuda6 ⚽
S. Izuma3 ⚽
Y. Nishimura3 ⚽
R. Ohata2 ⚽
H. Konishi2 ⚽
Cards Given
Matsumoto YamagaT. Shirai5 🟨
T. Kato4 🟨
K. Murakoshi4 🟨
D. Higuchi2 🟨
K. Kawakami2 🟨
I. Oda2 🟨
Thespakusatsu GunmaS. Nose4 🟨
R. Fujimura4 🟨
T. Tamashiro3 🟨
T. Nakashima3 🟨
K. Kikuchi2 🟨
H. Konishi2 🟨