Matsumoto Yamaga vs Renofa Yamaguchi — J3 League
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Matsumoto Yamaga and Renofa Yamaguchi meet in the J3 League 2026 season on 25 October 2026. Matsumoto Yamaga have recorded 11 wins from 34 matches this season (32% win rate), averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 50% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 53%; and clean sheets in 29% of games. Renofa Yamaguchi have won 44% of their 32 matches, with 1.34 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 53%, Over 2.5 at 50%, and clean sheets at 28%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.19 for Matsumoto Yamaga and 1.43 for Renofa Yamaguchi. The models give Matsumoto Yamaga a 30% win probability, with a draw at 27% and an Renofa Yamaguchi win at 42%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 48% and BTTS at 53%.
Season Statistics
Matsumoto Yamaga—
Renofa Yamaguchi13º
Position
3º
1.10
PPG
2.00
20%
Win %
60%
0.90
Goals / game
1.40
1.10
Conceded / game
0.70
50%
BTTS %
53%
29%
Clean sheet %
28%
53%
Over 2.5 %
50%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Matsumoto Yamaga
Home (6)
—
Renofa Yamaguchi
Away (6)
0.83
PPG
2.00
17%
Win %
67%
1.00
Goals / game
1.50
1.50
Conceded / game
0.83
45%
BTTS %
67%
30%
Clean sheet %
17%
50%
Over 2.5 %
67%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Matsumoto Yamaga | Home | Away | Renofa Yamaguchi | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 68% | 65% | 71% | 75% | 64% | 83% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 44% | 45% | 43% | 44% | 50% | 39% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 24% | 25% | 21% | 13% | 7% | 17% |
| Failed To Score | 32% | 35% | 29% | 25% | 36% | 17% |
Goals Conceded
| Matsumoto Yamaga | Home | Away | Renofa Yamaguchi | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 71% | 70% | 71% | 72% | 57% | 83% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 32% | 40% | 21% | 31% | 14% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 12% | 20% | 0% | 9% | 0% | 17% |
| Clean Sheets | 29% | 30% | 29% | 28% | 43% | 17% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Matsumoto Yamaga | Renofa Yamaguchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 88% | 94% |
| Over 1.5 | 68% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 22% |
| Over 4.5 | 15% | 9% |
| BTTS | 50% | 53% |
| BTTS & Win | 15% | 22% |
| BTTS & Draw | 24% | 16% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 41% | 44% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 12% | 6% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Matsumoto Yamaga | Renofa Yamaguchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 35% | 38% |
| Draw 1st Half | 41% | 41% |
| Loss 1st Half | 24% | 22% |
| Scored 1st Half | 50% | 47% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 35% | 34% |
| Win 2nd Half | 32% | 25% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 44% | 44% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 24% | 31% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 56% | 50% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 53% | 53% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 68% | 69% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 29% | 47% |
Recent Venue Form
Matsumoto Yamaga (H)L
Sanfrecce Hiroshima0–1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima0–1W
Kagoshima United1–0
Kagoshima United1–0L
Gainare Tottori0–1
Gainare Tottori0–1W
Albirex Niigata1–0
Albirex Niigata1–0L
Sagamihara1–3
Sagamihara1–3D
Shonan Bellmare3–3
Shonan Bellmare3–3Renofa Yamaguchi (A)W
Tochigi SC1–0
Tochigi SC1–0W
FC Gifu2–0
FC Gifu2–0W
Kanazawa2–1
Kanazawa2–1WGainare Tottori3–0
Gainare Tottori3–0L
Nara Club1–3
Nara Club1–3LKagoshima United1–2
Kagoshima United1–2Head to Head · 11 matches
2
Matsumoto Yamaga
18%
8
Draws
73%
1
Renofa Yamaguchi
9%
73%
Over 1.5
8/11
64%
Over 2.5
7/11
45%
Over 3.5
5/11
73%
BTTS
8/11
13/03/24Renofa Yamaguchi
Matsumoto Yamaga
3–3Renofa Yamaguchi21/11/21Renofa Yamaguchi
Matsumoto Yamaga
1–1Renofa Yamaguchi28/02/21Matsumoto Yamaga
Renofa Yamaguchi
0–0Matsumoto Yamaga01/11/20Renofa Yamaguchi
Matsumoto Yamaga
2–1Renofa Yamaguchi09/09/20Matsumoto Yamaga
Renofa Yamaguchi
2–2Matsumoto Yamaga15/09/18Renofa Yamaguchi
Matsumoto Yamaga
0–0Renofa Yamaguchi25/03/18Matsumoto Yamaga
Renofa Yamaguchi
2–2Matsumoto Yamaga24/09/17Renofa Yamaguchi
Matsumoto Yamaga
2–3Renofa Yamaguchi01/07/17Matsumoto Yamaga
Renofa Yamaguchi
1–2Matsumoto Yamaga21/08/16Matsumoto Yamaga
Renofa Yamaguchi
0–0Matsumoto Yamaga26/03/16Renofa Yamaguchi
Matsumoto Yamaga
3–3Renofa Yamaguchi| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ehime FC | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | +14 | 23 |
| 2 | Kagoshima United | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 23 |
| 3 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +7 | 20 |
| 4 | Nara Club | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +5 | 20 |
| 5 | Sagamihara | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | +6 | 18 |
| 6 |  Osaka | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | +9 | 17 |
| 7 | FC Gifu | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | +10 | 16 |
| 8 | Kanazawa | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | +3 | 14 |
| 9 |  Roasso Kumamoto | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 10 |  Biwako Shiga | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 |  Parceiro Nagano | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Gainare Tottori | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 13 |
| 13 | Matsumoto Yamaga | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 14 |  FC Ryukyu | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 11 |
| 15 | Tochigi SC | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 16 |  Kitakyushu | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 17 |  Thespakusatsu Gunma | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 |  Fukushima United | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 8 |
| 19 |  Kamatamare Sanuki | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -8 | 5 |
| 20 |  Kochi United | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -19 | 5 |
Team Insights
Matsumoto Yamaga- ●Matsumoto Yamaga have been undefeated in their last 4 away matches.
- ●Matsumoto Yamaga failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 6 home matches.
- ●67% of Matsumoto Yamaga's goals have been scored at home.
- ●82% of Matsumoto Yamaga's goals conceded were conceded at home.
Renofa Yamaguchi- ●Renofa Yamaguchi have won their last 2 matches.
- ●Renofa Yamaguchi have kept a clean sheet in each of their last 2 matches.
- ●Renofa Yamaguchi have scored in each of their last 6 matches.
- ●Renofa Yamaguchi have been undefeated in their last 4 home matches.
- ●Renofa Yamaguchi have won their last 4 away matches.
- ●Renofa Yamaguchi have kept a clean sheet in their last 2 away matches.
- ●Renofa Yamaguchi have scored in each of their last 5 away matches.
- ●Renofa Yamaguchi have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Renofa Yamaguchi have won 4 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Renofa Yamaguchi have scored in 5 of their 6 away matches.
- ●64% of Renofa Yamaguchi's goals have been scored away.
- ●60% of Renofa Yamaguchi's points have been earned away.
- ●Renofa Yamaguchi have scored 64% of their goals in the first half.
Season Schedule
Matsumoto YamagaWHKagoshima United1–0
Kagoshima United1–0LHGainare Tottori0–1
Gainare Tottori0–1WATochigi SC2–1
Tochigi SC2–1DARoasso Kumamoto0–0
Roasso Kumamoto0–0LHSagamihara1–3
Sagamihara1–3DHOsaka0–0
Osaka0–0–AParceiro Nagano18/10
Parceiro Nagano18/10–HThespakusatsu Gunma21/10
Thespakusatsu Gunma21/10–HRenofa Yamaguchi25/10
Renofa Yamaguchi25/10Renofa YamaguchiWATochigi SC1–0
Tochigi SC1–0WAFC Gifu2–0
FC Gifu2–0DHSagamihara2–2
Sagamihara2–2WAKanazawa2–1
Kanazawa2–1WHThespakusatsu Gunma2–0
Thespakusatsu Gunma2–0WAGainare Tottori3–0
Gainare Tottori3–0–HKochi United18/10
Kochi United18/10–AEhime FC21/10
Ehime FC21/10–AMatsumoto Yamaga25/10
Matsumoto Yamaga25/10Top Scorers
Matsumoto YamagaK. Fujieda6 ⚽
K. Murakoshi6 ⚽
K. Kaneko5 ⚽
I. Oda4 ⚽
A. Inoue4 ⚽
T. Kato4 ⚽
Renofa YamaguchiS. Yamamoto8 ⚽
D. Furukawa5 ⚽
S. Watanabe4 ⚽
K. Tanabe4 ⚽
K. Fujioka3 ⚽
S. Kobayashi3 ⚽
Cards Given
Matsumoto YamagaT. Shirai5 🟨
T. Kato4 🟨
K. Murakoshi4 🟨
D. Higuchi2 🟨
K. Kawakami2 🟨
I. Oda2 🟨
Renofa YamaguchiY. Wakasa6 🟨
R. Ozawa5 🟨
K. Oiwa3 🟨
K. Nakashima3 🟨
T. Itakura3 🟨
K. Yoshioka2 🟨