V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima — J1 League
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V-varen Nagasaki and Sanfrecce Hiroshima meet in the J1 League 2027 season on 21 October 2026. V-varen Nagasaki have recorded 2 wins from 9 matches this season (22% win rate), averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 67% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 56%; and clean sheets in 11% of games. Sanfrecce Hiroshima have won 67% of their 9 matches, with 2.44 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 44%, Over 2.5 at 56%, and clean sheets at 56%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.32 for V-varen Nagasaki and 1.54 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima. The models give V-varen Nagasaki a 30% win probability, with a draw at 26% and an Sanfrecce Hiroshima win at 44%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 54% and BTTS at 58%.
Season Statistics
V-varen Nagasaki—
Sanfrecce Hiroshima14º
Position
2º
1.00
PPG
2.22
22%
Win %
67%
1.22
Goals / game
2.44
1.78
Conceded / game
0.67
67%
BTTS %
44%
11%
Clean sheet %
56%
56%
Over 2.5 %
56%
4.1
Avg corners
7.0
11.3
Avg shots
20.1
3.7
Avg shots on target
7.7
1.3
Avg yellow cards
1.1
10.0
Avg fouls
8.1
45.1%
Avg possession
60.1%
Home vs Away
V-varen Nagasaki
Home (5)
—
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Away (5)
1.60
PPG
2.00
40%
Win %
60%
1.40
Goals / game
1.80
1.40
Conceded / game
0.80
60%
BTTS %
40%
20%
Clean sheet %
60%
60%
Over 2.5 %
40%
4.1
Avg corners
7.0
11.3
Avg shots
20.1
3.7
Avg shots on target
7.7
1.3
Avg yellow cards
1.1
45.1%
Avg possession
60.1%
Goals Scored
| V-varen Nagasaki | Home | Away | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 78% | 80% | 75% | 89% | 100% | 80% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 44% | 60% | 25% | 67% | 75% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 0% | 0% | 0% | 44% | 75% | 20% |
| Failed To Score | 22% | 20% | 25% | 11% | 0% | 20% |
Goals Conceded
| V-varen Nagasaki | Home | Away | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 89% | 80% | 100% | 44% | 50% | 40% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 44% | 40% | 50% | 11% | 0% | 20% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 33% | 20% | 50% | 11% | 0% | 20% |
| Clean Sheets | 11% | 20% | 0% | 56% | 50% | 60% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| V-varen Nagasaki | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 89% |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 78% |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% |
| Over 4.5 | 11% | 33% |
| BTTS | 67% | 44% |
| BTTS & Win | 11% | 22% |
| BTTS & Draw | 33% | 11% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 44% | 33% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 11% | 22% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| V-varen Nagasaki | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 33% | 44% |
| Draw 1st Half | 22% | 44% |
| Loss 1st Half | 44% | 11% |
| Scored 1st Half | 33% | 56% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 44% | 22% |
| Win 2nd Half | 22% | 67% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 22% | 22% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 56% | 11% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 56% | 78% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 78% | 33% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 78% | 56% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 33% | 33% |
Recent Venue Form
V-varen Nagasaki (H)D
Cerezo Osaka1–1
Cerezo Osaka1–1W
Nagoya Grampus2–0
Nagoya Grampus2–0D
Gamba Osaka2–2
Gamba Osaka2–2L
FC Tokyo0–3
FC Tokyo0–3W
Ehime FC3–2
Ehime FC3–2W
Kyoto Sanga2–1
Kyoto Sanga2–1Sanfrecce Hiroshima (A)W
Matsumoto Yamaga1–0
Matsumoto Yamaga1–0W
Tokyo Verdy2–0
Tokyo Verdy2–0W
Tochigi City2–0
Tochigi City2–0W
Avispa Fukuoka1–0
Avispa Fukuoka1–0L
Fagiano Okayama2–3
Fagiano Okayama2–3DGamba Osaka0–0
Gamba Osaka0–0Number of Corners
9.0
Corners / Match
9 games
League Avg
9.1
89 games
9.2
Corners / Match
9 games
| Match Corners | V-varen Nagasaki | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 78% | 56% | 74% |
| Over 7 | 67% | 56% | 60% |
| Over 8 | 67% | 56% | 53% |
| Over 9 | 67% | 56% | 43% |
| Over 10 | 33% | 44% | 33% |
| Over 11 | 11% | 44% | 22% |
| Over 12 | 11% | 22% | 17% |
| Over 13 | 0% | 11% | 8% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | V-varen Nagasaki | Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 4.1 | 7.0 |
| Corners Against / Match | 4.9 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 67% | 89% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 56% | 67% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 44% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 89% | 33% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 78% | 22% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 44% | 11% |
Head to Head · 4 matches
0
V-varen Nagasaki
0%
0
Draws
0%
4
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
100%
100%
Over 1.5
4/4
25%
Over 2.5
1/4
25%
Over 3.5
1/4
25%
BTTS
1/4
18/04/26V-varen Nagasaki
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2–0V-varen Nagasaki06/02/26Sanfrecce Hiroshima
V-varen Nagasaki
1–3Sanfrecce Hiroshima11/08/18V-varen Nagasaki
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2–0V-varen Nagasaki28/04/18Sanfrecce Hiroshima
V-varen Nagasaki
0–2Sanfrecce Hiroshima| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | +7 | 21 |
| 2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +16 | 20 |
| 3 |  Machida Zelvia | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +12 | 20 |
| 4 | FC Tokyo | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +9 | 20 |
| 5 |  Vissel Kobe | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +5 | 19 |
| 6 |  Kashima | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +3 | 16 |
| 7 |  Yokohama F. Marinos | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | +4 | 15 |
| 8 |  Kawasaki Frontale | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | +3 | 13 |
| 9 | Fagiano Okayama | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 10 |  Shimizu S-pulse | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 11 |  Urawa | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 12 | Cerezo Osaka | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 12 |
| 13 |  Mito Hollyhock | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | V-varen Nagasaki | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Nagoya Grampus | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 9 |
| 16 | Kyoto Sanga | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 17 | Avispa Fukuoka | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 7 |
| 18 | Gamba Osaka | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 19 |  JEF United Chiba | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 5 |
| 20 | Tokyo Verdy | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | -10 | 4 |
Team Insights
V-varen Nagasaki- ●V-varen Nagasaki have been undefeated in their last 3 matches.
- ●V-varen Nagasaki have scored in each of their last 5 matches.
- ●V-varen Nagasaki have been undefeated in their last 3 home matches.
- ●V-varen Nagasaki failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 5 home matches.
- ●64% of V-varen Nagasaki's goals have been scored at home.
- ●89% of V-varen Nagasaki's points have been earned at home.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima- ●Sanfrecce Hiroshima have won their last 3 matches.
- ●Sanfrecce Hiroshima have kept a clean sheet in each of their last 2 matches.
- ●Sanfrecce Hiroshima have scored in each of their last 5 matches.
- ●Sanfrecce Hiroshima have won their last 2 home matches.
- ●Sanfrecce Hiroshima have scored in each of their last 4 home matches.
- ●Sanfrecce Hiroshima have won their last 2 away matches.
- ●Sanfrecce Hiroshima have kept a clean sheet in their last 2 away matches.
- ●Sanfrecce Hiroshima have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their 5 away matches.
- ●Sanfrecce Hiroshima have won 3 of their 5 away matches.
Season Schedule
V-varen NagasakiDAJEF United Chiba1–1
JEF United Chiba1–1DHCerezo Osaka1–1
Cerezo Osaka1–1WHNagoya Grampus2–0
Nagoya Grampus2–0LAVissel Kobe1–3
Vissel Kobe1–3DHGamba Osaka2–2
Gamba Osaka2–2LHFC Tokyo0–3
FC Tokyo0–3–AKashima17/10
Kashima17/10–HSanfrecce Hiroshima21/10
Sanfrecce Hiroshima21/10–AUrawa25/10
Urawa25/10Sanfrecce HiroshimaWATokyo Verdy2–0
Tokyo Verdy2–0WAAvispa Fukuoka1–0
Avispa Fukuoka1–0WHCerezo Osaka6–1
Cerezo Osaka6–1LAFagiano Okayama2–3
Fagiano Okayama2–3WHNagoya Grampus3–0
Nagoya Grampus3–0DAGamba Osaka0–0
Gamba Osaka0–0–HKyoto Sanga17/10
Kyoto Sanga17/10–AV-varen Nagasaki21/10
V-varen Nagasaki21/10–HShimizu S-pulse24/10
Shimizu S-pulse24/10Top Scorers
V-varen NagasakiMatheus Jesus3 ⚽
Kenshin Yasuda2 ⚽
Tenmu Matsumoto2 ⚽
Thiago2 ⚽
Iwasaki Yuto1 ⚽
Thiago Santana1 ⚽
Sanfrecce HiroshimaAkito Suzuki4 ⚽
A. Suzuki3 ⚽
Shun Ayukawa3 ⚽
Sébastien Haller2 ⚽
S. Haller1 ⚽
Mutsuki Kato1 ⚽
Cards Given
V-varen NagasakiThiago Santana2 🟨
Hotaru Yamaguchi1 🟨
Kanta Doi1 🟨
Motoki Hasegawa1 🟨
N. Campbell1 🟨
Norman Campbell1 🟨
Sanfrecce HiroshimaY. Nakajima2 🟨
Akito Suzuki1 🟨
Daiki Suga1 🟨
H. Kawabe1 🟨
A. Suzuki1 🟨
M. Kato1 🟨