Machida Zelvia vs V-varen Nagasaki — J1 League
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Machida Zelvia and V-varen Nagasaki meet in the J1 League 2027 season on 21 November 2026. Machida Zelvia have recorded 8 wins from 11 matches this season (73% win rate), averaging 2.73 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 64% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 73%; and clean sheets in 36% of games. V-varen Nagasaki have won 27% of their 11 matches, with 1.36 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 55%, Over 2.5 at 55%, and clean sheets at 18%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.94 for Machida Zelvia and 1.11 for V-varen Nagasaki. The models give Machida Zelvia a 60% win probability, with a draw at 22% and an V-varen Nagasaki win at 18%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 59% and BTTS at 57%.
Season Statistics
Machida Zelvia—
V-varen Nagasaki1º
Position
14º
2.36
PPG
1.09
73%
Win %
27%
2.73
Goals / game
1.36
0.91
Conceded / game
1.64
64%
BTTS %
55%
36%
Clean sheet %
18%
73%
Over 2.5 %
55%
4.3
Avg corners
3.9
14.0
Avg shots
11.8
5.9
Avg shots on target
3.7
0.7
Avg yellow cards
1.5
10.8
Avg fouls
11.2
51.1%
Avg possession
43.9%
Home vs Away
Machida Zelvia
Home (5)
—
V-varen Nagasaki
Away (5)
2.00
PPG
0.20
60%
Win %
0%
2.20
Goals / game
0.80
1.40
Conceded / game
2.20
80%
BTTS %
60%
20%
Clean sheet %
0%
80%
Over 2.5 %
40%
4.3
Avg corners
3.9
14.0
Avg shots
11.8
5.9
Avg shots on target
3.7
0.7
Avg yellow cards
1.5
51.1%
Avg possession
43.9%
Goals Scored
| Machida Zelvia | Home | Away | V-varen Nagasaki | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 100% | 100% | 100% | 73% | 83% | 60% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 73% | 80% | 67% | 45% | 67% | 20% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 55% | 40% | 67% | 9% | 17% | 0% |
| Failed To Score | 0% | 0% | 0% | 27% | 17% | 40% |
Goals Conceded
| Machida Zelvia | Home | Away | V-varen Nagasaki | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 64% | 80% | 50% | 82% | 67% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 9% | 20% | 0% | 45% | 33% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 9% | 20% | 0% | 27% | 17% | 40% |
| Clean Sheets | 36% | 20% | 50% | 18% | 33% | 0% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Machida Zelvia | V-varen Nagasaki | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 91% | 91% |
| Over 2.5 | 73% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 55% | 36% |
| Over 4.5 | 27% | 9% |
| BTTS | 64% | 55% |
| BTTS & Win | 36% | 9% |
| BTTS & Draw | 18% | 27% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 45% | 36% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 27% | 18% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Machida Zelvia | V-varen Nagasaki | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 55% | 36% |
| Draw 1st Half | 36% | 18% |
| Loss 1st Half | 9% | 45% |
| Scored 1st Half | 73% | 36% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 36% | 45% |
| Win 2nd Half | 82% | 27% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 9% | 27% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 9% | 45% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 91% | 55% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 27% | 64% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 82% | 82% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 36% | 45% |
Recent Venue Form
Machida Zelvia (H)W
Avispa Fukuoka3–0
Avispa Fukuoka3–0D
Kyoto Sanga0–0
Kyoto Sanga0–0W
Tochigi City2–1
Tochigi City2–1L
Kashiwa Reysol2–4
Kashiwa Reysol2–4W
Svay Rieng2–0
Svay Rieng2–0D
Yokohama F. Marinos1–1
Yokohama F. Marinos1–1V-varen Nagasaki (A)L
Kashima0–2
Kashima0–2D
JEF United Chiba1–1
JEF United Chiba1–1L
Shimizu S-pulse1–2
Shimizu S-pulse1–2L
Gainare Tottori0–2
Gainare Tottori0–2W
Kochi United1–0
Kochi United1–0L
Vissel Kobe1–3
Vissel Kobe1–3Number of Corners
8.4
Corners / Match
11 games
League Avg
9.2
109 games
9.0
Corners / Match
11 games
| Match Corners | Machida Zelvia | V-varen Nagasaki | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 82% | 82% | 75% |
| Over 7 | 64% | 73% | 61% |
| Over 8 | 45% | 64% | 55% |
| Over 9 | 27% | 64% | 42% |
| Over 10 | 18% | 27% | 33% |
| Over 11 | 9% | 9% | 24% |
| Over 12 | 9% | 9% | 17% |
| Over 13 | 9% | 0% | 8% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Machida Zelvia | V-varen Nagasaki |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 4.3 | 3.9 |
| Corners Against / Match | 4.1 | 5.1 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 55% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 55% | 55% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 55% | 45% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 73% | 82% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 55% | 73% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 36% | 45% |
Head to Head · 14 matches
4
Machida Zelvia
29%
5
Draws
36%
5
V-varen Nagasaki
36%
71%
Over 1.5
10/14
57%
Over 2.5
8/14
43%
Over 3.5
6/14
57%
BTTS
8/14
23/09/23Machida Zelvia
V-varen Nagasaki
0–6Machida Zelvia11/06/23V-varen Nagasaki
Machida Zelvia
4–1V-varen Nagasaki17/07/22V-varen Nagasaki
Machida Zelvia
1–2V-varen Nagasaki09/04/22Machida Zelvia
V-varen Nagasaki
1–0Machida Zelvia18/09/21V-varen Nagasaki
Machida Zelvia
3–3V-varen Nagasaki17/04/21Machida Zelvia
V-varen Nagasaki
0–3Machida Zelvia04/11/20Machida Zelvia
V-varen Nagasaki
3–1Machida Zelvia23/09/20V-varen Nagasaki
Machida Zelvia
1–1V-varen Nagasaki05/10/19Machida Zelvia
V-varen Nagasaki
3–2Machida Zelvia16/06/19V-varen Nagasaki
Machida Zelvia
2–2V-varen Nagasaki07/10/17V-varen Nagasaki
Machida Zelvia
1–1V-varen Nagasaki17/06/17Machida Zelvia
V-varen Nagasaki
0–0Machida Zelvia31/07/16Machida Zelvia
V-varen Nagasaki
1–0Machida Zelvia23/04/16V-varen Nagasaki
Machida Zelvia
1–0V-varen Nagasaki| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | +20 | 26 |
| 2 |  FC Tokyo | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | +13 | 24 |
| 3 |  Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | +15 | 23 |
| 4 | Vissel Kobe | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | +7 | 22 |
| 5 | Kashiwa Reysol | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | +5 | 22 |
| 6 | Kashima | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | +5 | 20 |
| 7 |  Kawasaki Frontale | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | +6 | 19 |
| 8 |  Urawa | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 18 |
| 9 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | +4 | 17 |
| 10 |  Fagiano Okayama | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 11 | Shimizu S-pulse | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 14 |
| 12 |  Nagoya Grampus | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 13 |
| 13 |  Cerezo Osaka | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -7 | 13 |
| 14 | V-varen Nagasaki | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 15 |  Gamba Osaka | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 10 |
| 16 |  Mito Hollyhock | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 9 |
| 17 | Kyoto Sanga | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 9 |
| 18 | Avispa Fukuoka | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -6 | 7 |
| 19 | JEF United Chiba | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -12 | 6 |
| 20 |  Tokyo Verdy | 11 | 0 | 5 | 6 | -14 | 5 |
Team Insights
Machida Zelvia- ●Machida Zelvia have won their last 3 matches.
- ●Machida Zelvia have kept a clean sheet in each of their last 3 matches.
- ●Machida Zelvia have scored in each of their last 11 matches.
- ●Machida Zelvia have scored in each of their last 5 home matches.
- ●Machida Zelvia have won their last 3 away matches.
- ●Machida Zelvia have kept a clean sheet in their last 2 away matches.
- ●Machida Zelvia have scored in each of their last 6 away matches.
- ●Machida Zelvia failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 5 home matches.
- ●Machida Zelvia have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Machida Zelvia have won 5 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Machida Zelvia have scored in 6 of their 6 away matches.
- ●63% of Machida Zelvia's goals have been scored away.
- ●70% of Machida Zelvia's goals conceded were conceded at home.
- ●62% of Machida Zelvia's points have been earned away.
V-varen Nagasaki- ●V-varen Nagasaki have been undefeated in their last 4 home matches.
- ●V-varen Nagasaki have scored in each of their last 4 home matches.
- ●V-varen Nagasaki failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 away matches.
- ●V-varen Nagasaki failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 6 home matches.
- ●V-varen Nagasaki failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 5 away matches.
- ●V-varen Nagasaki have lost 4 of their 5 away matches.
- ●73% of V-varen Nagasaki's goals have been scored at home.
- ●92% of V-varen Nagasaki's points have been earned at home.
Season Schedule
Machida ZelviaWAShimizu S-pulse5–0
Shimizu S-pulse5–0WHAvispa Fukuoka3–0
Avispa Fukuoka3–0WAKyoto Sanga1–0
Kyoto Sanga1–0LHKashiwa Reysol2–4
Kashiwa Reysol2–4DHYokohama F. Marinos1–1
Yokohama F. Marinos1–1WANagoya Grampus3–1
Nagoya Grampus3–1–AVissel Kobe24/10
Vissel Kobe24/10–HGamba Osaka01/11
Gamba Osaka01/11–HSanfrecce Hiroshima08/11
Sanfrecce Hiroshima08/11V-varen NagasakiWHSanfrecce Hiroshima4–0
Sanfrecce Hiroshima4–0LAKashima0–2
Kashima0–2DAJEF United Chiba1–1
JEF United Chiba1–1DHCerezo Osaka1–1
Cerezo Osaka1–1WHNagoya Grampus2–0
Nagoya Grampus2–0LAVissel Kobe1–3
Vissel Kobe1–3–AUrawa25/10
Urawa25/10–HTokyo Verdy01/11
Tokyo Verdy01/11–AAvispa Fukuoka07/11
Avispa Fukuoka07/11Top Scorers
Machida ZelviaKoki Ogawa4 ⚽
Takuma Nishimura3 ⚽
T. Yengi2 ⚽
H. Nakamura2 ⚽
Henry Heroki Mochizuki2 ⚽
T. Nishimura2 ⚽
V-varen NagasakiMatheus Jesus4 ⚽
Kenshin Yasuda4 ⚽
Tenmu Matsumoto2 ⚽
Thiago2 ⚽
Thiago Santana1 ⚽
Hijiri Onaga1 ⚽
Cards Given
Machida ZelviaTakahiro Akimoto3 🟨
Daihachi Okamura1 🟨
Gen Shoji1 🟨
Hokuto Shimoda1 🟨
Hotaka Nakamura1 🟨
K. Ogawa1 🟨
V-varen NagasakiThiago Santana2 🟨
Jonathan Junior2 🟨
Hotaru Yamaguchi1 🟨
Kanta Doi1 🟨
Kenshin Yasuda1 🟨
Hijiri Onaga1 🟨