Machida Zelvia vs Fagiano Okayama — J1 League
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Machida Zelvia and Fagiano Okayama meet in the J1 League 2027 season on 6 December 2026. Machida Zelvia have recorded 8 wins from 13 matches this season (62% win rate), averaging 2.31 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 54% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 62%; and clean sheets in 46% of games. Fagiano Okayama have won 38% of their 13 matches, with 1.15 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 62%, Over 2.5 at 77%, and clean sheets at 23%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.72 for Machida Zelvia and 1.26 for Fagiano Okayama. The models give Machida Zelvia a 53% win probability, with a draw at 24% and an Fagiano Okayama win at 23%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 58% and BTTS at 59%.
Season Statistics
Machida Zelvia—
Fagiano Okayama3º
Position
10º
2.15
PPG
1.23
62%
Win %
38%
2.31
Goals / game
1.15
0.77
Conceded / game
1.62
54%
BTTS %
62%
46%
Clean sheet %
23%
62%
Over 2.5 %
77%
4.5
Avg corners
6.4
14.4
Avg shots
14.4
5.9
Avg shots on target
3.4
0.8
Avg yellow cards
1.6
10.5
Avg fouls
11.5
51.5%
Avg possession
43.8%
Home vs Away
Machida Zelvia
Home (6)
—
Fagiano Okayama
Away (6)
1.83
PPG
1.00
50%
Win %
33%
1.83
Goals / game
1.33
1.17
Conceded / game
1.67
67%
BTTS %
100%
33%
Clean sheet %
0%
67%
Over 2.5 %
100%
4.5
Avg corners
6.4
14.4
Avg shots
14.4
5.9
Avg shots on target
3.4
0.8
Avg yellow cards
1.6
51.5%
Avg possession
43.8%
Goals Scored
| Machida Zelvia | Home | Away | Fagiano Okayama | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 85% | 83% | 86% | 77% | 57% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 62% | 67% | 57% | 31% | 29% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 46% | 33% | 57% | 8% | 14% | 0% |
| Failed To Score | 15% | 17% | 14% | 23% | 43% | 0% |
Goals Conceded
| Machida Zelvia | Home | Away | Fagiano Okayama | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 54% | 67% | 43% | 77% | 57% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 8% | 17% | 0% | 62% | 57% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 8% | 17% | 0% | 15% | 29% | 0% |
| Clean Sheets | 46% | 33% | 57% | 23% | 43% | 0% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Machida Zelvia | Fagiano Okayama | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 85% | 92% |
| Over 1.5 | 77% | 85% |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 77% |
| Over 3.5 | 46% | 15% |
| Over 4.5 | 23% | 8% |
| BTTS | 54% | 62% |
| BTTS & Win | 31% | 23% |
| BTTS & Draw | 15% | 0% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 38% | 62% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 23% | 15% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Machida Zelvia | Fagiano Okayama | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 46% | 8% |
| Draw 1st Half | 46% | 62% |
| Loss 1st Half | 8% | 31% |
| Scored 1st Half | 62% | 46% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 31% | 69% |
| Win 2nd Half | 69% | 31% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 23% | 38% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 8% | 31% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 77% | 54% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 23% | 54% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 69% | 69% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 31% | 46% |
Recent Venue Form
Machida Zelvia (H)D
Gamba Osaka0–0
Gamba Osaka0–0W
Avispa Fukuoka3–0
Avispa Fukuoka3–0D
Kyoto Sanga0–0
Kyoto Sanga0–0W
Tochigi City2–1
Tochigi City2–1L
Kashiwa Reysol2–4
Kashiwa Reysol2–4W
Svay Rieng2–0
Svay Rieng2–0Fagiano Okayama (A)L
Kawasaki Frontale1–2
Kawasaki Frontale1–2D
Nagoya Grampus3–3
Nagoya Grampus3–3LAvispa Fukuoka1–2
Avispa Fukuoka1–2W
Consadole Sapporo2–1
Consadole Sapporo2–1W
Urawa2–1
Urawa2–1W
JEF United Chiba2–1
JEF United Chiba2–1Number of Corners
9.0
Corners / Match
13 games
League Avg
9.4
129 games
10.4
Corners / Match
13 games
| Match Corners | Machida Zelvia | Fagiano Okayama | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 85% | 77% | 78% |
| Over 7 | 69% | 69% | 64% |
| Over 8 | 54% | 69% | 59% |
| Over 9 | 38% | 62% | 47% |
| Over 10 | 31% | 46% | 38% |
| Over 11 | 23% | 38% | 26% |
| Over 12 | 15% | 31% | 17% |
| Over 13 | 8% | 15% | 8% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Machida Zelvia | Fagiano Okayama |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 4.5 | 6.4 |
| Corners Against / Match | 4.5 | 4.0 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 62% | 92% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 62% | 85% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 54% | 77% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 77% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 62% | 54% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 46% | 38% |
Head to Head · 21 matches
7
Machida Zelvia
33%
9
Draws
43%
5
Fagiano Okayama
24%
81%
Over 1.5
17/21
43%
Over 2.5
9/21
29%
Over 3.5
6/21
67%
BTTS
14/21
27/09/25Fagiano Okayama
Machida Zelvia
1–0Fagiano Okayama25/05/25Machida Zelvia
Fagiano Okayama
2–2Machida Zelvia05/08/23Machida Zelvia
Fagiano Okayama
1–3Machida Zelvia07/05/23Fagiano Okayama
Machida Zelvia
1–1Fagiano Okayama04/09/22Machida Zelvia
Fagiano Okayama
2–0Machida Zelvia13/03/22Fagiano Okayama
Machida Zelvia
3–1Fagiano Okayama14/08/21Fagiano Okayama
Machida Zelvia
1–1Fagiano Okayama05/05/21Machida Zelvia
Fagiano Okayama
1–2Machida Zelvia08/11/20Machida Zelvia
Fagiano Okayama
1–0Machida Zelvia30/08/20Fagiano Okayama
Machida Zelvia
2–0Fagiano Okayama25/08/19Machida Zelvia
Fagiano Okayama
0–3Machida Zelvia23/06/19Fagiano Okayama
Machida Zelvia
1–1Fagiano Okayama21/10/18Machida Zelvia
Fagiano Okayama
1–0Machida Zelvia06/06/18Machida Zelvia
Fagiano Okayama
0–1Machida Zelvia27/05/18Fagiano Okayama
Machida Zelvia
1–3Fagiano Okayama10/09/17Machida Zelvia
Fagiano Okayama
1–1Machida Zelvia12/03/17Fagiano Okayama
Machida Zelvia
1–1Fagiano Okayama03/11/16Fagiano Okayama
Machida Zelvia
1–1Fagiano Okayama29/04/16Machida Zelvia
Fagiano Okayama
2–2Machida Zelvia02/09/12Fagiano Okayama
Machida Zelvia
2–2Fagiano Okayama| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Tokyo | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | +23 | 30 |
| 2 |  Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | +22 | 29 |
| 3 | Machida Zelvia | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | +20 | 28 |
| 4 | Kashiwa Reysol | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | +10 | 28 |
| 5 |  Vissel Kobe | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | +9 | 26 |
| 6 |  Kashima | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | +7 | 23 |
| 7 | Kawasaki Frontale | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | +5 | 22 |
| 8 |  Yokohama F. Marinos | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | +6 | 21 |
| 9 | Urawa | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 21 |
| 10 | Fagiano Okayama | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 16 |
| 11 | Nagoya Grampus | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -6 | 14 |
| 12 |  Cerezo Osaka | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -10 | 14 |
| 13 |  Shimizu S-pulse | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -12 | 14 |
| 14 | Kyoto Sanga | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -6 | 13 |
| 15 |  V-varen Nagasaki | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -5 | 12 |
| 16 | Gamba Osaka | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -7 | 12 |
| 17 |  Tokyo Verdy | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -11 | 11 |
| 18 | JEF United Chiba | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -9 | 10 |
| 19 |  Mito Hollyhock | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -13 | 9 |
| 20 | Avispa Fukuoka | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | -11 | 7 |
Team Insights
Machida Zelvia- ●Machida Zelvia have been undefeated in their last 5 matches.
- ●Machida Zelvia have kept a clean sheet in each of their last 5 matches.
- ●Machida Zelvia have kept a clean sheet in their last 2 home matches.
- ●Machida Zelvia have been undefeated in their last 7 away matches.
- ●Machida Zelvia have kept a clean sheet in their last 3 away matches.
- ●Machida Zelvia failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Machida Zelvia have kept a clean sheet in 4 of their 7 away matches.
- ●Machida Zelvia have won 5 of their 7 away matches.
- ●Machida Zelvia have scored in 6 of their 7 away matches.
- ●63% of Machida Zelvia's goals have been scored away.
- ●70% of Machida Zelvia's goals conceded were conceded at home.
- ●61% of Machida Zelvia's points have been earned away.
Fagiano Okayama- ●Fagiano Okayama have lost their last 2 away matches.
- ●Fagiano Okayama failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 6 away matches.
- ●Fagiano Okayama have scored in each of their last 6 away matches.
- ●Fagiano Okayama have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their 7 home matches.
- ●Fagiano Okayama failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Fagiano Okayama have lost 4 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Fagiano Okayama have scored in 6 of their 6 away matches.
Season Schedule
Machida ZelviaDHGamba Osaka0–0
Gamba Osaka0–0DAVissel Kobe0–0
Vissel Kobe0–0WAShimizu S-pulse5–0
Shimizu S-pulse5–0WHAvispa Fukuoka3–0
Avispa Fukuoka3–0WAKyoto Sanga1–0
Kyoto Sanga1–0LHKashiwa Reysol2–4
Kashiwa Reysol2–4–HSanfrecce Hiroshima08/11
Sanfrecce Hiroshima08/11–HV-varen Nagasaki21/11
V-varen Nagasaki21/11–HTokyo Verdy29/11
Tokyo Verdy29/11Fagiano OkayamaLHFC Tokyo0–4
FC Tokyo0–4LAKawasaki Frontale1–2
Kawasaki Frontale1–2WHMito Hollyhock2–0
Mito Hollyhock2–0LHVissel Kobe0–3
Vissel Kobe0–3LAAvispa Fukuoka1–2
Avispa Fukuoka1–2LHKyoto Sanga1–2
Kyoto Sanga1–2–AYokohama F. Marinos07/11
Yokohama F. Marinos07/11–AGamba Osaka21/11
Gamba Osaka21/11–HShimizu S-pulse25/11
Shimizu S-pulse25/11Top Scorers
Machida ZelviaKoki Ogawa4 ⚽
Takuma Nishimura3 ⚽
T. Yengi2 ⚽
H. Nakamura2 ⚽
Henry Heroki Mochizuki2 ⚽
T. Nishimura2 ⚽
Fagiano OkayamaKota Kawano3 ⚽
Ataru Esaka2 ⚽
Kamiya Yuta1 ⚽
Kosuke Shirai1 ⚽
Lucao1 ⚽
Léo Gaúcho1 ⚽
Cards Given
Machida ZelviaTakahiro Akimoto3 🟨
Daihachi Okamura1 🟨
Gen Shoji1 🟨
Hiroyuki Mae1 🟨
Hokuto Shimoda1 🟨
Hotaka Nakamura1 🟨
Fagiano OkayamaLucas Marcos Meireles4 🟨
Yoshitake Suzuki3 🟨
Haruka Motoyama3 🟨
Eiji Miyamoto3 🟨
Oberdan Alionço de Lima2 🟨
Leo Gaucho1 🟨