Leeds vs Manchester United — Premier League
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Leeds and Manchester United meet in the Premier League 2026 season on 18 October 2026. Leeds have recorded 5 wins from 9 matches this season (56% win rate), averaging 2.11 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 56% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 33%; and clean sheets in 44% of games. Manchester United have won 25% of their 12 matches, with 1.92 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 58%, Over 2.5 at 58%, and clean sheets at 17%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.79 for Leeds and 1.41 for Manchester United. The models give Leeds a 44% win probability, with a draw at 25% and an Manchester United win at 31%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 61% and BTTS at 62%.
Season Statistics
Leeds—
Manchester United3º
Position
13º
2.00
PPG
1.00
50%
Win %
25%
1.75
Goals / game
1.75
0.75
Conceded / game
1.75
56%
BTTS %
58%
44%
Clean sheet %
17%
33%
Over 2.5 %
58%
4.2
Avg corners
5.7
13.3
Avg shots
19.5
4.5
Avg shots on target
6.2
1.3
Avg yellow cards
1.2
10.7
Avg fouls
10.2
46.0%
Avg possession
57.0%
Home vs Away
Leeds
Home (2)
—
Manchester United
Away (2)
2.00
PPG
0.50
50%
Win %
0%
2.50
Goals / game
1.00
1.00
Conceded / game
2.00
50%
BTTS %
50%
50%
Clean sheet %
25%
50%
Over 2.5 %
75%
4.2
Avg corners
5.7
13.3
Avg shots
19.5
4.5
Avg shots on target
6.2
1.3
Avg yellow cards
1.2
46.0%
Avg possession
57.0%
Goals Scored
| Leeds | Home | Away | Manchester United | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 100% | 100% | 100% | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 56% | 75% | 40% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 33% | 50% | 20% | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Failed To Score | 0% | 0% | 0% | 25% | 25% | 25% |
Goals Conceded
| Leeds | Home | Away | Manchester United | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 56% | 50% | 60% | 83% | 88% | 75% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 11% | 0% | 20% | 50% | 38% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 11% | 0% | 20% | 17% | 25% | 0% |
| Clean Sheets | 44% | 50% | 40% | 17% | 13% | 25% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Leeds | Manchester United | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 83% |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 50% |
| Over 4.5 | 22% | 33% |
| BTTS | 56% | 58% |
| BTTS & Win | 11% | 8% |
| BTTS & Draw | 33% | 25% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 22% | 42% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 11% | 17% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Leeds | Manchester United | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 56% | 33% |
| Draw 1st Half | 33% | 50% |
| Loss 1st Half | 11% | 17% |
| Scored 1st Half | 67% | 67% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 22% | 58% |
| Win 2nd Half | 56% | 25% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 22% | 42% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 22% | 33% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 78% | 42% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 33% | 50% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 78% | 83% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 33% | 58% |
Recent Venue Form
Leeds (H)W
Newcastle4–1
Newcastle4–1D
Brentford1–1
Brentford1–1W
FC Augsburg4–0
FC Augsburg4–0W
RB Leipzig2–0
RB Leipzig2–0W
Brighton1–0
Brighton1–0W
Burnley3–1
Burnley3–1Manchester United (A)D
Everton2–2
Everton2–2L
Hull City0–2
Hull City0–2L
Atletico Madrid1–2
Atletico Madrid1–2W
Rosenborg5–0
Rosenborg5–0WBrighton3–0
Brighton3–0D
Sunderland0–0
Sunderland0–0Number of Corners
8.7
Corners / Match
6 games
League Avg
9.1
40 games
9.2
Corners / Match
6 games
| Match Corners | Leeds | Manchester United | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 67% | 100% | 90% |
| Over 7 | 67% | 50% | 65% |
| Over 8 | 50% | 50% | 45% |
| Over 9 | 50% | 33% | 40% |
| Over 10 | 33% | 33% | 30% |
| Over 11 | 17% | 33% | 20% |
| Over 12 | 17% | 17% | 15% |
| Over 13 | 0% | 0% | 8% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Leeds | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 4.2 | 5.7 |
| Corners Against / Match | 4.5 | 3.5 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 67% | 100% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 67% | 83% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 67% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 100% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 50% | 50% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 50% | 17% |
Head to Head · 12 matches
1
Leeds
8%
5
Draws
42%
6
Manchester United
50%
83%
Over 1.5
10/12
50%
Over 2.5
6/12
33%
Over 3.5
4/12
58%
BTTS
7/12
12/08/26Leeds
Manchester United
1–1Leeds13/04/26Leeds
Manchester United
1–2Leeds04/01/26Manchester United
Leeds
1–1Manchester United19/07/25Leeds
Manchester United
0–0Leeds12/07/23Leeds
Manchester United
2–0Leeds12/02/23Manchester United
Leeds
0–2Manchester United08/02/23Leeds
Manchester United
2–2Leeds20/02/22Manchester United
Leeds
2–4Manchester United14/08/21Leeds
Manchester United
5–1Leeds25/04/21Manchester United
Leeds
0–0Manchester United20/12/20Leeds
Manchester United
6–2Leeds20/09/11Manchester United
Leeds
0–3Manchester United| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 12 |
| 2 |  Manchester City | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 12 |
| 3 | Leeds | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +4 | 8 |
| 4 | Hull City | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +3 | 8 |
| 5 | Brighton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +8 | 7 |
| 6 |  Chelsea | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 | Brentford | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| 8 |  Liverpool | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 6 |
| 9 | Everton | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 6 |
| 10 |  Ipswich | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 6 |
| 11 |  Nottingham Forest | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 12 | Newcastle | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 15 |  Bournemouth | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 16 |  Crystal Palace | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 17 |  Tottenham | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 18 |  Fulham | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 19 |  Aston Villa | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 1 |
| 20 |  Coventry | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
Team Insights
Leeds- ●Leeds have been undefeated in their last 4 matches.
Manchester United—
Season Schedule
LeedsWHNewcastle4–1
Newcastle4–1DABrighton1–1
Brighton1–1DHBrentford1–1
Brentford1–1WANottingham Forest1–0
Nottingham Forest1–0–HCrystal Palace20/09
Crystal Palace20/09–AArsenal10/10
Arsenal10/10–HManchester United18/10
Manchester United18/10Manchester UnitedLHManchester City0–1
Manchester City0–1DAEverton2–2
Everton2–2WHIpswich5–2
Ipswich5–2LAHull City0–2
Hull City0–2–AFulham20/09
Fulham20/09–HTottenham10/10
Tottenham10/10–ALeeds18/10
Leeds18/10Top Scorers
LeedsA. Stach2 ⚽
D. Calvert-Lewin2 ⚽
Dominic Calvert-Lewin2 ⚽
J. Justin2 ⚽
Jayden Bogle2 ⚽
Noah Okafor1 ⚽
Manchester UnitedB. Mbeumo4 ⚽
B. Fernandes3 ⚽
J. Zirkzee2 ⚽
Benjamin Šeško2 ⚽
E. Williams1 ⚽
Bryan Mbeumo1 ⚽
Cards Given
LeedsDominic Calvert-Lewin2 🟨
D. Calvert-Lewin1 🟨
A. Tanaka1 🟨
Harry Wilson1 🟨
Jayden Bogle1 🟨
S. Longstaff1 🟨
Manchester UnitedHarry Maguire2 🟨
P. Dorgu2 🟨
A. Heaven2 🟨
J. Devaney1 🟨
J. Kamason1 🟨
Luke Shaw1 🟨