Aston Villa vs Manchester City — Premier League
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Villa Park·Birmingham·England·42,824
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Aston Villa and Manchester City meet in the Premier League 2026 season on 24 October 2026. Aston Villa have recorded 5 wins from 15 matches this season (33% win rate), averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 73% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 87%; and clean sheets in 13% of games. Manchester City have won 82% of their 11 matches, with 2.45 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 55%, Over 2.5 at 64%, and clean sheets at 36%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.28 for Aston Villa and 1.70 for Manchester City. The models give Aston Villa a 26% win probability, with a draw at 25% and an Manchester City win at 49%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 57% and BTTS at 59%.
Season Statistics
Aston Villa—
Manchester City15º
Position
1º
0.80
PPG
3.00
20%
Win %
100%
0.80
Goals / game
2.00
1.80
Conceded / game
0.50
73%
BTTS %
55%
13%
Clean sheet %
36%
87%
Over 2.5 %
64%
3.9
Avg corners
5.1
12.8
Avg shots
14.0
4.3
Avg shots on target
6.0
2.4
Avg yellow cards
1.6
11.8
Avg fouls
10.6
45.3%
Avg possession
63.9%
Home vs Away
Aston Villa
Home (2)
—
Manchester City
Away (2)
0.00
PPG
3.00
0%
Win %
100%
0.50
Goals / game
2.50
1.50
Conceded / game
0.50
75%
BTTS %
40%
0%
Clean sheet %
40%
75%
Over 2.5 %
60%
3.9
Avg corners
5.1
12.8
Avg shots
14.0
4.3
Avg shots on target
6.0
2.4
Avg yellow cards
1.6
45.3%
Avg possession
63.9%
Goals Scored
| Aston Villa | Home | Away | Manchester City | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 80% | 75% | 82% | 91% | 100% | 80% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 40% | 25% | 45% | 64% | 67% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 33% | 0% | 45% | 45% | 50% | 40% |
| Failed To Score | 20% | 25% | 18% | 9% | 0% | 20% |
Goals Conceded
| Aston Villa | Home | Away | Manchester City | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 87% | 100% | 82% | 64% | 67% | 60% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 67% | 75% | 64% | 18% | 17% | 20% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 13% | 25% | 9% | 18% | 17% | 20% |
| Clean Sheets | 13% | 0% | 18% | 36% | 33% | 40% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Aston Villa | Manchester City | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 93% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 87% | 82% |
| Over 2.5 | 87% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 47% | 45% |
| Over 4.5 | 27% | 27% |
| BTTS | 73% | 55% |
| BTTS & Win | 27% | 45% |
| BTTS & Draw | 0% | 9% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 73% | 45% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 13% | 18% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Aston Villa | Manchester City | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 33% | 45% |
| Draw 1st Half | 40% | 27% |
| Loss 1st Half | 27% | 27% |
| Scored 1st Half | 60% | 55% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 60% | 55% |
| Win 2nd Half | 20% | 64% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 40% | 27% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 40% | 9% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 53% | 64% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 60% | 27% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 80% | 82% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 67% | 45% |
Recent Venue Form
Aston Villa (H)L
Nottingham Forest1–2
Nottingham Forest1–2L
Arsenal0–1
Arsenal0–1L
Real Sociedad2–4
Real Sociedad2–4W
Liverpool4–2
Liverpool4–2WNottingham Forest4–0
Nottingham Forest4–0L
Tottenham1–2
Tottenham1–2Manchester City (A)W
Manchester United1–0
Manchester United1–0W
FC Porto2–0
FC Porto2–0W
Crystal Palace4–1
Crystal Palace4–1LArsenal0–3
Arsenal0–3W
K-League Stars3–1
K-League Stars3–1D
Bournemouth1–1
Bournemouth1–1Number of Corners
7.6
Corners / Match
8 games
League Avg
9.4
46 games
8.4
Corners / Match
7 games
| Match Corners | Aston Villa | Manchester City | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 75% | 71% | 91% |
| Over 7 | 38% | 57% | 70% |
| Over 8 | 38% | 43% | 48% |
| Over 9 | 25% | 29% | 43% |
| Over 10 | 25% | 29% | 35% |
| Over 11 | 13% | 14% | 22% |
| Over 12 | 0% | 14% | 15% |
| Over 13 | 0% | 0% | 9% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Aston Villa | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 3.9 | 5.1 |
| Corners Against / Match | 3.8 | 3.3 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 50% | 86% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 50% | 86% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 38% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 63% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 50% | 29% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 25% | 29% |
Head to Head · 29 matches
7
Aston Villa
24%
2
Draws
7%
20
Manchester City
69%
79%
Over 1.5
23/29
69%
Over 2.5
20/29
45%
Over 3.5
13/29
52%
BTTS
15/29
24/05/26Aston Villa
Manchester City
1–2Aston Villa26/10/25Manchester City
Aston Villa
1–0Manchester City22/04/25Aston Villa
Manchester City
2–1Aston Villa21/12/24Manchester City
Aston Villa
2–1Manchester City03/04/24Aston Villa
Manchester City
4–1Aston Villa06/12/23Manchester City
Aston Villa
1–0Manchester City12/02/23Aston Villa
Manchester City
3–1Aston Villa03/09/22Manchester City
Aston Villa
1–1Manchester City22/05/22Aston Villa
Manchester City
3–2Aston Villa01/12/21Manchester City
Aston Villa
1–2Manchester City21/04/21Manchester City
Aston Villa
1–2Manchester City20/01/21Aston Villa
Manchester City
2–0Aston Villa01/03/20Manchester City
Aston Villa
1–2Manchester City12/01/20Manchester City
Aston Villa
1–6Manchester City26/10/19Aston Villa
Manchester City
3–0Aston Villa05/03/16Aston Villa
Manchester City
4–0Aston Villa30/01/16Manchester City
Aston Villa
0–4Manchester City08/11/15Manchester City
Aston Villa
0–0Manchester City25/04/15Aston Villa
Manchester City
3–2Aston Villa04/10/14Manchester City
Aston Villa
0–2Manchester City| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 12 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 12 |
| 3 |  Brighton | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +11 | 10 |
| 4 |  Brentford | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 |  Everton | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 6 |  Leeds | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +4 | 8 |
| 7 |  Hull City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 8 |
| 8 |  Newcastle | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 |  Chelsea | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 10 | Liverpool | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 6 |
| 11 |  Ipswich | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Nottingham Forest | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 14 |  Sunderland | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 15 | Aston Villa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Bournemouth | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 17 | Crystal Palace | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 18 |  Coventry | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 2 |
| 20 |  Fulham | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
Team Insights
Aston Villa- ●67% of Aston Villa's goals conceded were conceded away.
Manchester City- ●Manchester City have won their last 5 matches.
- ●Manchester City have scored in each of their last 5 matches.
- ●Manchester City have won their last 3 home matches.
- ●Manchester City have won their last 2 away matches.
- ●62% of Manchester City's goals have been scored at home.
Season Schedule
Aston VillaWATottenham3–2
Tottenham3–2LHNottingham Forest1–2
Nottingham Forest1–2DAHull City0–0
Hull City0–0LHArsenal0–1
Arsenal0–1LABrighton0–4
Brighton0–4–HBrentford10/10
Brentford10/10–ANewcastle17/10
Newcastle17/10–HManchester City24/10
Manchester City24/10Manchester CityWHSunderland5–3
Sunderland5–3WAManchester United1–0
Manchester United1–0WHCoventry1–0
Coventry1–0WACrystal Palace4–1
Crystal Palace4–1WHBournemouth2–1
Bournemouth2–1–ALiverpool11/10
Liverpool11/10–HIpswich17/10
Ipswich17/10–AAston Villa24/10
Aston Villa24/10Top Scorers
Aston VillaB. Madjo4 ⚽
Nicolas Jackson2 ⚽
L. Lynch2 ⚽
G. Hemmings2 ⚽
Emiliano Buendía2 ⚽
Tammy Abraham2 ⚽
Manchester CityErling Haaland5 ⚽
Floyd Samba2 ⚽
D. Mubama2 ⚽
E. Haaland2 ⚽
Antoine Semenyo2 ⚽
O. Marmoush2 ⚽
Cards Given
Aston VillaAlysson4 🟨
J. McGinn3 🟨
Joao Gomes3 🟨
John McGinn2 🟨
Ian Maatsen2 🟨
Nicolas Jackson2 🟨
Manchester CityJ. Gvardiol2 🟨
Josko Gvardiol2 🟨
P. Foden2 🟨
Enzo Fernández1 🟨
Erling Haaland1 🟨
Gianluigi Donnarumma1 🟨