Chelsea vs Manchester United — Premier League
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Chelsea and Manchester United meet in the Premier League 2026 season on 31 October 2026. Chelsea have recorded 7 wins from 12 matches this season (58% win rate), averaging 2.83 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 75% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 83%; and clean sheets in 17% of games. Manchester United have won 27% of their 11 matches, with 1.91 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 55%, Over 2.5 at 55%, and clean sheets at 18%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 2.14 for Chelsea and 1.63 for Manchester United. The models give Chelsea a 44% win probability, with a draw at 23% and an Manchester United win at 33%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 69% and BTTS at 69%.
Season Statistics
Chelsea—
Manchester United6º
Position
13º
1.75
PPG
1.00
50%
Win %
25%
2.50
Goals / game
1.75
2.25
Conceded / game
1.75
75%
BTTS %
55%
17%
Clean sheet %
18%
83%
Over 2.5 %
55%
5.7
Avg corners
6.0
17.0
Avg shots
21.0
6.5
Avg shots on target
6.6
1.7
Avg yellow cards
1.4
8.8
Avg fouls
11.2
48.8%
Avg possession
60.0%
Home vs Away
Chelsea
Home (2)
—
Manchester United
Away (2)
2.00
PPG
0.50
50%
Win %
0%
3.00
Goals / game
1.00
2.50
Conceded / game
2.00
67%
BTTS %
50%
22%
Clean sheet %
25%
78%
Over 2.5 %
75%
5.7
Avg corners
6.0
17.0
Avg shots
21.0
6.5
Avg shots on target
6.6
1.7
Avg yellow cards
1.4
48.8%
Avg possession
60.0%
Goals Scored
| Chelsea | Home | Away | Manchester United | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 92% | 89% | 100% | 73% | 71% | 75% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 75% | 78% | 67% | 45% | 43% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 58% | 56% | 67% | 27% | 29% | 25% |
| Failed To Score | 8% | 11% | 0% | 27% | 29% | 25% |
Goals Conceded
| Chelsea | Home | Away | Manchester United | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 83% | 78% | 100% | 82% | 86% | 75% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 67% | 56% | 100% | 45% | 29% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 33% | 33% | 33% | 9% | 14% | 0% |
| Clean Sheets | 17% | 22% | 0% | 18% | 14% | 25% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Chelsea | Manchester United | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 92% | 82% |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 58% | 45% |
| Over 4.5 | 42% | 27% |
| BTTS | 75% | 55% |
| BTTS & Win | 42% | 9% |
| BTTS & Draw | 17% | 27% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 75% | 36% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 8% | 18% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Chelsea | Manchester United | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 25% | 27% |
| Draw 1st Half | 58% | 55% |
| Loss 1st Half | 17% | 18% |
| Scored 1st Half | 75% | 64% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 75% | 55% |
| Win 2nd Half | 50% | 27% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 17% | 45% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 33% | 27% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 75% | 45% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 67% | 45% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 83% | 82% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 67% | 55% |
Recent Venue Form
Chelsea (H)D
Hull City2–2
Hull City2–2W
Leeds6–3
Leeds6–3W
Brighton4–3
Brighton4–3W
Luton2–0
Luton2–0W
Real Sociedad3–1
Real Sociedad3–1W
AC Milan3–0
AC Milan3–0Manchester United (A)D
Everton2–2
Everton2–2LHull City0–2
Hull City0–2L
Atletico Madrid1–2
Atletico Madrid1–2W
Rosenborg5–0
Rosenborg5–0WBrighton3–0
Brighton3–0D
Sunderland0–0
Sunderland0–0Number of Corners
10.7
Corners / Match
6 games
League Avg
9.1
40 games
9.6
Corners / Match
5 games
| Match Corners | Chelsea | Manchester United | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 100% | 100% | 90% |
| Over 7 | 100% | 60% | 65% |
| Over 8 | 67% | 60% | 45% |
| Over 9 | 67% | 40% | 40% |
| Over 10 | 50% | 40% | 30% |
| Over 11 | 33% | 40% | 20% |
| Over 12 | 17% | 20% | 15% |
| Over 13 | 17% | 0% | 8% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Chelsea | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 5.7 | 6.0 |
| Corners Against / Match | 5.0 | 3.6 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 100% | 100% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 67% | 80% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 33% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 100% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 83% | 60% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 67% | 20% |
Head to Head · 40 matches
13
Chelsea
33%
14
Draws
35%
13
Manchester United
33%
70%
Over 1.5
28/40
45%
Over 2.5
18/40
30%
Over 3.5
12/40
57%
BTTS
23/40
18/04/26Manchester United
Chelsea
0–1Manchester United20/09/25Chelsea
Manchester United
2–1Chelsea16/05/25Manchester United
Chelsea
1–0Manchester United03/11/24Chelsea
Manchester United
1–1Chelsea04/04/24Manchester United
Chelsea
4–3Manchester United06/12/23Chelsea
Manchester United
2–1Chelsea25/05/23Chelsea
Manchester United
4–1Chelsea22/10/22Manchester United
Chelsea
1–1Manchester United28/04/22Chelsea
Manchester United
1–1Chelsea28/11/21Manchester United
Chelsea
1–1Manchester United28/02/21Manchester United
Chelsea
0–0Manchester United24/10/20Chelsea
Manchester United
0–0Chelsea19/07/20Chelsea
Manchester United
1–3Chelsea17/02/20Manchester United
Chelsea
0–2Manchester United30/10/19Manchester United
Chelsea
1–2Manchester United11/08/19Chelsea
Manchester United
4–0Chelsea28/04/19Chelsea
Manchester United
1–1Chelsea18/02/19Manchester United
Chelsea
0–2Manchester United20/10/18Manchester United
Chelsea
2–2Manchester United19/05/18Manchester United
Chelsea
1–0Manchester United| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 12 |
| 2 |  Manchester City | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 12 |
| 3 | Leeds | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +4 | 8 |
| 4 | Hull City | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +3 | 8 |
| 5 | Brighton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +8 | 7 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 |  Brentford | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| 8 |  Liverpool | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 6 |
| 9 | Everton | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 6 |
| 10 |  Ipswich | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 6 |
| 11 |  Nottingham Forest | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 12 |  Newcastle | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 15 |  Bournemouth | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 16 |  Crystal Palace | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 17 |  Tottenham | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 18 |  Fulham | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 19 |  Aston Villa | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 1 |
| 20 |  Coventry | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
Team Insights
Chelsea- ●Chelsea have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 4 matches.
Manchester United—
Season Schedule
ChelseaDHHull City2–2
Hull City2–2LAArsenal1–2
Arsenal1–2WHBrighton4–3
Brighton4–3WAFulham3–2
Fulham3–2–ABrentford18/09
Brentford18/09–HBournemouth10/10
Bournemouth10/10–AEverton17/10
Everton17/10Manchester UnitedLHManchester City0–1
Manchester City0–1DAEverton2–2
Everton2–2WHIpswich5–2
Ipswich5–2LAHull City0–2
Hull City0–2–AFulham20/09
Fulham20/09–HTottenham10/10
Tottenham10/10–ALeeds18/10
Leeds18/10Top Scorers
ChelseaJoao Pedro9 ⚽
C. Palmer2 ⚽
Cole Palmer2 ⚽
L. Delap2 ⚽
Danny Welbeck2 ⚽
M. Rogers2 ⚽
Manchester UnitedB. Mbeumo4 ⚽
B. Fernandes3 ⚽
J. Zirkzee2 ⚽
Benjamin Šeško2 ⚽
E. Williams1 ⚽
Bryan Mbeumo1 ⚽
Cards Given
ChelseaR. Lavia2 🟨
G. Quenda1 🟨
João Pedro1 🟨
L. Colwill1 🟨
L. Delap1 🟨
Estevao1 🟨
Manchester UnitedHarry Maguire2 🟨
P. Dorgu2 🟨
A. Heaven2 🟨
J. Devaney1 🟨
J. Kamason1 🟨
Luke Shaw1 🟨