Newcastle vs Arsenal — Premier League
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St. James' Park·Newcastle upon Tyne·England·52,758
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Newcastle and Arsenal meet in the Premier League 2026 season on 21 November 2026. Newcastle have recorded 6 wins from 16 matches this season (38% win rate), averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 75% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 69%; and clean sheets in 19% of games. Arsenal have won 73% of their 15 matches, with 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 47%, Over 2.5 at 67%, and clean sheets at 47%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.48 for Newcastle and 1.49 for Arsenal. The models give Newcastle a 31% win probability, with a draw at 25% and an Arsenal win at 45%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 56% and BTTS at 59%.
Season Statistics
Newcastle—
Arsenal11º
Position
2º
1.14
PPG
2.57
29%
Win %
86%
1.43
Goals / game
1.57
2.00
Conceded / game
0.71
75%
BTTS %
47%
19%
Clean sheet %
47%
69%
Over 2.5 %
67%
5.9
Avg corners
4.7
14.1
Avg shots
13.5
4.2
Avg shots on target
5.3
2.6
Avg yellow cards
1.3
12.3
Avg fouls
10.9
53.2%
Avg possession
58.7%
Home vs Away
Newcastle
Home (4)
—
Arsenal
Away (4)
1.25
PPG
2.25
25%
Win %
75%
1.50
Goals / game
1.00
1.50
Conceded / game
0.75
78%
BTTS %
29%
11%
Clean sheet %
57%
78%
Over 2.5 %
43%
5.9
Avg corners
4.7
14.1
Avg shots
13.5
4.2
Avg shots on target
5.3
2.6
Avg yellow cards
1.3
53.2%
Avg possession
58.7%
Goals Scored
| Newcastle | Home | Away | Arsenal | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 94% | 89% | 100% | 93% | 100% | 86% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 44% | 56% | 29% | 60% | 75% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 13% | 22% | 0% | 33% | 38% | 29% |
| Failed To Score | 6% | 11% | 0% | 7% | 0% | 14% |
Goals Conceded
| Newcastle | Home | Away | Arsenal | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 81% | 89% | 71% | 53% | 63% | 43% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 50% | 56% | 43% | 27% | 25% | 29% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 25% | 11% | 43% | 20% | 25% | 14% |
| Clean Sheets | 19% | 11% | 29% | 47% | 38% | 57% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Newcastle | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 | 69% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 27% |
| Over 4.5 | 25% | 20% |
| BTTS | 75% | 47% |
| BTTS & Win | 19% | 27% |
| BTTS & Draw | 25% | 7% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 63% | 40% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 6% | 27% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Newcastle | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 25% | 27% |
| Draw 1st Half | 25% | 53% |
| Loss 1st Half | 50% | 20% |
| Scored 1st Half | 44% | 47% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 63% | 33% |
| Win 2nd Half | 44% | 73% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 19% | 20% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 38% | 7% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 75% | 80% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 56% | 33% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 88% | 60% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 50% | 60% |
Recent Venue Form
Newcastle (H)L
Aston Villa0–1
Aston Villa0–1W
Hull City2–1
Hull City2–1D
Bournemouth2–2
Bournemouth2–2W
West Brom3–2
West Brom3–2D
Liverpool2–2
Liverpool2–2D
Strasbourg1–1
Strasbourg1–1Arsenal (A)W
Nottingham Forest1–0
Nottingham Forest1–0L
Brighton0–3
Brighton0–3W
Ipswich4–2
Ipswich4–2W
Sunderland2–0
Sunderland2–0W
Napoli1–0
Napoli1–0WAston Villa1–0
Aston Villa1–0Number of Corners
10.3
Corners / Match
9 games
League Avg
9.4
70 games
7.9
Corners / Match
11 games
| Match Corners | Newcastle | Arsenal | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 100% | 64% | 89% |
| Over 7 | 89% | 36% | 70% |
| Over 8 | 56% | 27% | 49% |
| Over 9 | 44% | 27% | 44% |
| Over 10 | 33% | 18% | 39% |
| Over 11 | 22% | 9% | 27% |
| Over 12 | 22% | 9% | 17% |
| Over 13 | 22% | 9% | 9% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Newcastle | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 5.9 | 4.7 |
| Corners Against / Match | 4.4 | 3.2 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 89% | 82% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 89% | 64% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 56% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 67% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 56% | 45% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 56% | 18% |
Head to Head · 34 matches
7
Newcastle
21%
3
Draws
9%
24
Arsenal
71%
62%
Over 1.5
21/34
38%
Over 2.5
13/34
18%
Over 3.5
6/34
29%
BTTS
10/34
25/04/26Newcastle
Arsenal
1–0Newcastle28/09/25Arsenal
Newcastle
1–2Arsenal27/07/25Newcastle
Arsenal
3–2Newcastle18/05/25Newcastle
Arsenal
1–0Newcastle05/02/25Arsenal
Newcastle
2–0Arsenal07/01/25Newcastle
Arsenal
0–2Newcastle02/11/24Arsenal
Newcastle
1–0Arsenal24/02/24Newcastle
Arsenal
4–1Newcastle04/11/23Arsenal
Newcastle
1–0Arsenal07/05/23Arsenal
Newcastle
0–2Arsenal03/01/23Newcastle
Arsenal
0–0Newcastle16/05/22Arsenal
Newcastle
2–0Arsenal27/11/21Newcastle
Arsenal
2–0Newcastle02/05/21Arsenal
Newcastle
0–2Arsenal18/01/21Newcastle
Arsenal
3–0Newcastle09/01/21Newcastle
Arsenal
2–0Newcastle16/02/20Newcastle
Arsenal
4–0Newcastle11/08/19Arsenal
Newcastle
0–1Arsenal01/04/19Newcastle
Arsenal
2–0Newcastle15/09/18Arsenal
Newcastle
1–2Arsenal| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +12 | 21 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | +6 | 18 |
| 3 | Brighton | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +18 | 16 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +4 | 13 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 12 |
| 6 |  Brentford | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +5 | 10 |
| 7 |  Leeds | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 10 |
| 8 |  Everton | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 | Hull City | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | Aston Villa | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 |  Manchester United | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 |  Crystal Palace | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 7 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 |  Tottenham | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 17 |  Coventry | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 |  Fulham | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 5 |
| 19 | Nottingham Forest | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 20 | Sunderland | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
Team Insights
Newcastle- ●Newcastle failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 matches.
- ●Newcastle have lost their last 2 away matches.
Arsenal- ●Arsenal have won their last 2 matches.
- ●Arsenal have won their last 3 home matches.
- ●64% of Arsenal's goals have been scored at home.
Season Schedule
NewcastleLHAston Villa0–1
Aston Villa0–1LACoventry1–4
Coventry1–4WHHull City2–1
Hull City2–1LALeeds1–4
Leeds1–4DHBournemouth2–2
Bournemouth2–2WATottenham2–0
Tottenham2–0–ACrystal Palace25/10
Crystal Palace25/10–HEverton02/11
Everton02/11–AFulham07/11
Fulham07/11ArsenalWANottingham Forest1–0
Nottingham Forest1–0WHLeeds2–1
Leeds2–1LABrighton0–3
Brighton0–3WASunderland2–0
Sunderland2–0WHChelsea2–1
Chelsea2–1WAAston Villa1–0
Aston Villa1–0–HEverton24/10
Everton24/10–ALiverpool01/11
Liverpool01/11–HHull City07/11
Hull City07/11Top Scorers
NewcastleH. Barnes4 ⚽
Y. Wissa3 ⚽
A. Elanga2 ⚽
B. Toure2 ⚽
J. Willock2 ⚽
Joe Willock2 ⚽
ArsenalK. Havertz4 ⚽
M. Odegaard3 ⚽
Bruno Guimarães2 ⚽
C. Tzolis2 ⚽
Bukayo Saka2 ⚽
B. Saka2 ⚽
Cards Given
NewcastleJoelinton2 🟨
Yoane Wissa2 🟨
J. Ramsey2 🟨
Jacob Murphy2 🟨
J. Murphy2 🟨
Jacob Ramsey1 🟨
ArsenalMartin Odegaard2 🟨
Gabriel2 🟨
Mikel Merino2 🟨
Kai Havertz2 🟨
Christos Tzolis2 🟨
Mikel Arteta1 🟨