Dumbarton vs Kelty Hearts — League Two
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Dumbarton and Kelty Hearts meet in the League Two 2026 season on 12 December 2026. Dumbarton have recorded 8 wins from 25 matches this season (32% win rate), averaging 1.32 goals scored and 2.36 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 60% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 76%; and clean sheets in 16% of games. Kelty Hearts have won 37% of their 27 matches, with 1.41 goals scored and 2.15 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 63%, Over 2.5 at 74%, and clean sheets at 11%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.84 for Dumbarton and 1.13 for Kelty Hearts. The models give Dumbarton a 49% win probability, with a draw at 26% and an Kelty Hearts win at 26%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 57% and BTTS at 57%.
Season Statistics
Dumbarton—
Kelty Hearts8º
Position
5º
1.08
PPG
1.25
33%
Win %
42%
1.08
Goals / game
1.33
1.67
Conceded / game
1.83
60%
BTTS %
63%
16%
Clean sheet %
11%
76%
Over 2.5 %
74%
3.0
Avg corners
0.0
10.0
Avg shots
2.0
6.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
2.0
6.0
Avg fouls
13.0
47.0%
Avg possession
18.0%
Home vs Away
Dumbarton
Home (6)
—
Kelty Hearts
Away (6)
2.17
PPG
0.50
67%
Win %
17%
1.50
Goals / game
0.83
1.00
Conceded / game
2.17
54%
BTTS %
50%
31%
Clean sheet %
21%
69%
Over 2.5 %
64%
3.0
Avg corners
0.0
10.0
Avg shots
2.0
6.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
2.0
47.0%
Avg possession
18.0%
Goals Scored
| Dumbarton | Home | Away | Kelty Hearts | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 76% | 85% | 67% | 74% | 77% | 71% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 36% | 54% | 17% | 41% | 69% | 14% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 20% | 23% | 17% | 22% | 38% | 7% |
| Failed To Score | 24% | 15% | 33% | 26% | 23% | 29% |
Goals Conceded
| Dumbarton | Home | Away | Kelty Hearts | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 84% | 69% | 100% | 89% | 100% | 79% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 72% | 46% | 100% | 63% | 62% | 64% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 44% | 23% | 67% | 37% | 38% | 36% |
| Clean Sheets | 16% | 31% | 0% | 11% | 0% | 21% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Dumbarton | Kelty Hearts | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 92% | 89% |
| Over 2.5 | 76% | 74% |
| Over 3.5 | 48% | 41% |
| Over 4.5 | 24% | 30% |
| BTTS | 60% | 63% |
| BTTS & Win | 16% | 26% |
| BTTS & Draw | 8% | 4% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 56% | 59% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 20% | 15% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Dumbarton | Kelty Hearts | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 20% | 37% |
| Draw 1st Half | 20% | 19% |
| Loss 1st Half | 60% | 44% |
| Scored 1st Half | 44% | 52% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 68% | 70% |
| Win 2nd Half | 32% | 26% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 20% | 33% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 48% | 41% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 60% | 59% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 72% | 63% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 84% | 93% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 48% | 56% |
Recent Venue Form
Dumbarton (H)W
Keith1–0
Keith1–0D
Stirling Albion1–1
Stirling Albion1–1W
Forfar Athletic2–1
Forfar Athletic2–1W
Banks O' Dee3–2
Banks O' Dee3–2W
Kilmarnock II3–2
Kilmarnock II3–2W
Spartans3–0
Spartans3–0Kelty Hearts (A)W
Morton1–0
Morton1–0L
Edinburgh City1–4
Edinburgh City1–4L
East Kilbride1–2
East Kilbride1–2LStirling Albion1–2
Stirling Albion1–2WSpartans2–0
Spartans2–0L
Clyde1–4
Clyde1–4Number of Corners
10.0
Corners / Match
1 games
League Avg
0.0
0 games
13.0
Corners / Match
1 games
| Match Corners | Dumbarton | Kelty Hearts | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 100% | 100% | — |
| Over 7 | 100% | 100% | — |
| Over 8 | 100% | 100% | — |
| Over 9 | 100% | 100% | — |
| Over 10 | 0% | 100% | — |
| Over 11 | 0% | 100% | — |
| Over 12 | 0% | 100% | — |
| Over 13 | 0% | 0% | — |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Dumbarton | Kelty Hearts |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 3.0 | 0.0 |
| Corners Against / Match | 7.0 | 13.0 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 100% | 0% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 0% | 0% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 0% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 100% | 100% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 100% | 100% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 100% | 100% |
Head to Head · 7 matches
2
Dumbarton
29%
2
Draws
29%
3
Kelty Hearts
43%
100%
Over 1.5
7/7
71%
Over 2.5
5/7
71%
Over 3.5
5/7
57%
BTTS
4/7
22/08/26Dumbarton
Kelty Hearts
3–1Dumbarton23/09/25Kelty Hearts
Dumbarton
3–3Kelty Hearts05/04/25Dumbarton
Kelty Hearts
0–6Dumbarton28/12/24Kelty Hearts
Dumbarton
2–0Kelty Hearts09/11/24Dumbarton
Kelty Hearts
2–0Dumbarton31/08/24Kelty Hearts
Dumbarton
2–2Kelty Hearts09/09/23Kelty Hearts
Dumbarton
1–3Kelty Hearts| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Stranraer | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | +16 | 24 |
| 2 | Clyde | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | +9 | 24 |
| 3 |  Elgin City | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | +11 | 21 |
| 4 | Spartans | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | +3 | 18 |
| 5 | Kelty Hearts | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | -6 | 15 |
| 6 | Stirling Albion | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 15 |
| 7 | Edinburgh City | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | +3 | 14 |
| 8 | Dumbarton | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -7 | 13 |
| 9 | Forfar Athletic | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 11 |
| 10 |  Annan Athletic | 12 | 3 | 0 | 9 | -11 | 9 |
Team Insights
Dumbarton- ●Dumbarton have failed to win in their last 3 matches.
- ●Dumbarton have scored in each of their last 7 matches.
- ●Dumbarton have been undefeated in their last 4 home matches.
- ●Dumbarton have scored in each of their last 4 home matches.
- ●Dumbarton have lost their last 6 away matches.
- ●Dumbarton failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 6 away matches.
- ●Dumbarton have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 6 away matches.
- ●Dumbarton failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Dumbarton failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Dumbarton have lost 6 of their 6 away matches.
- ●69% of Dumbarton's goals have been scored at home.
- ●70% of Dumbarton's goals conceded were conceded away.
- ●100% of Dumbarton's points have been earned at home.
Kelty Hearts- ●Kelty Hearts failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 6 home matches.
- ●Kelty Hearts failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Kelty Hearts failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Kelty Hearts have lost 5 of their 6 away matches.
- ●69% of Kelty Hearts's goals have been scored at home.
- ●80% of Kelty Hearts's points have been earned at home.
Season Schedule
DumbartonLAEdinburgh City1–2
Edinburgh City1–2DHStirling Albion1–1
Stirling Albion1–1LAClyde1–2
Clyde1–2WHForfar Athletic2–1
Forfar Athletic2–1WHSpartans3–0
Spartans3–0LAStranraer1–3
Stranraer1–3–AElgin City07/11
Elgin City07/11–HAnnan Athletic14/11
Annan Athletic14/11–ASpartans21/11
Spartans21/11Kelty HeartsLHElgin City0–1
Elgin City0–1WHForfar Athletic2–1
Forfar Athletic2–1LAStirling Albion1–2
Stirling Albion1–2WASpartans2–0
Spartans2–0LHEdinburgh City1–3
Edinburgh City1–3LAClyde1–4
Clyde1–4–AAnnan Athletic07/11
Annan Athletic07/11–HStranraer14/11
Stranraer14/11–AEdinburgh City21/11
Edinburgh City21/11Top Scorers
DumbartonL. McIntosh9 ⚽
S. Honeyman5 ⚽
D. Lang4 ⚽
J. Sowa3 ⚽
A. Gilfedder2 ⚽
C. Campbell2 ⚽
Kelty HeartsI. Murray7 ⚽
J. Hislop5 ⚽
R. Shanley5 ⚽
R. Cole4 ⚽
L. Moore3 ⚽
G. Walker2 ⚽
Cards Given
DumbartonT. Lang4 🟨
M. Doyle3 🟨
D. Craig3 🟨
S. Honeyman2 🟨
K. Kirkpatrick2 🟨
L. McIntosh2 🟨
Kelty HeartsA. Ferguson7 🟨
G. Walker5 🟨
J. Brydon4 🟨
R. Shanley4 🟨
C. Hannah3 🟨
C. Flatman3 🟨