Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg — Bundesliga
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Merkur Arena·Graz·Austria·16,764
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Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg meet in the Bundesliga 2026 season on 8 November 2026. Sturm Graz have recorded 15 wins from 28 matches this season (54% win rate), averaging 2.11 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 50% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 57%; and clean sheets in 36% of games. Red Bull Salzburg have won 62% of their 29 matches, with 2.21 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 38%, Over 2.5 at 66%, and clean sheets at 52%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.82 for Sturm Graz and 1.48 for Red Bull Salzburg. The models give Sturm Graz a 46% win probability, with a draw at 25% and an Red Bull Salzburg win at 29%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 60% and BTTS at 62%.
Season Statistics
Sturm Graz—
Red Bull Salzburg4º
Position
2º
1.89
PPG
2.33
56%
Win %
67%
1.78
Goals / game
2.33
1.11
Conceded / game
0.44
50%
BTTS %
38%
36%
Clean sheet %
52%
57%
Over 2.5 %
66%
5.8
Avg corners
6.7
14.9
Avg shots
18.0
4.7
Avg shots on target
6.6
2.1
Avg yellow cards
1.1
13.7
Avg fouls
8.7
43.9%
Avg possession
62.4%
Home vs Away
Sturm Graz
Home (4)
—
Red Bull Salzburg
Away (4)
2.50
PPG
1.50
75%
Win %
25%
2.50
Goals / game
1.25
0.75
Conceded / game
0.50
59%
BTTS %
46%
35%
Clean sheet %
54%
59%
Over 2.5 %
54%
5.8
Avg corners
6.7
14.9
Avg shots
18.0
4.7
Avg shots on target
6.6
2.1
Avg yellow cards
1.1
43.9%
Avg possession
62.4%
Goals Scored
| Sturm Graz | Home | Away | Red Bull | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 82% | 88% | 73% | 86% | 81% | 92% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 57% | 59% | 55% | 52% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 32% | 41% | 18% | 41% | 38% | 46% |
| Failed To Score | 18% | 12% | 27% | 14% | 19% | 8% |
Goals Conceded
| Sturm Graz | Home | Away | Red Bull | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 64% | 65% | 64% | 48% | 50% | 46% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 29% | 18% | 45% | 24% | 31% | 15% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 18% | 12% | 27% | 14% | 19% | 8% |
| Clean Sheets | 36% | 35% | 36% | 52% | 50% | 54% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Sturm Graz | Red Bull | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 96% | 97% |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 79% |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 34% |
| Over 4.5 | 25% | 24% |
| BTTS | 50% | 38% |
| BTTS & Win | 21% | 14% |
| BTTS & Draw | 21% | 17% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 39% | 28% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 18% | 38% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Sturm Graz | Red Bull | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 39% | 46% |
| Draw 1st Half | 43% | 36% |
| Loss 1st Half | 18% | 18% |
| Scored 1st Half | 64% | 50% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 46% | 25% |
| Win 2nd Half | 54% | 46% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 25% | 39% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 21% | 14% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 64% | 71% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 32% | 43% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 75% | 68% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 50% | 43% |
Recent Venue Form
Sturm Graz (H)W
Marseille1–0
Marseille1–0W
Grazer AK6–1
Grazer AK6–1W
Floridsdorfer AC3–1
Floridsdorfer AC3–1D
Rennes0–0
Rennes0–0W
Lask Linz2–1
Lask Linz2–1D
Austria Lustenau1–1
Austria Lustenau1–1Red Bull (A)D
Celje2–2
Celje2–2DGrazer AK0–0
Grazer AK0–0W
Levski Sofia1–0
Levski Sofia1–0D
Ried1–1
Ried1–1W
SKN ST. Polten3–0
SKN ST. Polten3–0W
Mjallby AIF1–0
Mjallby AIF1–0Number of Corners
11.2
Corners / Match
16 games
League Avg
10.8
54 games
9.9
Corners / Match
15 games
| Match Corners | Sturm Graz | Red Bull | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 88% | 87% | 93% |
| Over 7 | 81% | 73% | 81% |
| Over 8 | 81% | 60% | 72% |
| Over 9 | 63% | 47% | 57% |
| Over 10 | 44% | 40% | 44% |
| Over 11 | 38% | 27% | 35% |
| Over 12 | 31% | 13% | 26% |
| Over 13 | 25% | 7% | 19% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Sturm Graz | Red Bull |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 5.8 | 6.7 |
| Corners Against / Match | 5.4 | 3.1 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 81% | 93% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 69% | 73% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 56% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 88% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 75% | 47% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 56% | 27% |
Head to Head · 66 matches
16
Sturm Graz
24%
18
Draws
27%
32
Red Bull
48%
79%
Over 1.5
52/66
58%
Over 2.5
38/66
38%
Over 3.5
25/66
65%
BTTS
43/66
20/09/26Sturm Graz
Red Bull Salzburg
3–0Sturm Graz03/05/26Sturm Graz
Red Bull Salzburg
1–1Sturm Graz20/03/26Red Bull Salzburg
Sturm Graz
1–1Red Bull Salzburg09/11/25Red Bull Salzburg
Sturm Graz
1–1Red Bull Salzburg20/09/25Sturm Graz
Red Bull Salzburg
0–2Sturm Graz09/05/25Red Bull Salzburg
Sturm Graz
4–2Red Bull Salzburg13/04/25Sturm Graz
Red Bull Salzburg
1–2Sturm Graz02/03/25Sturm Graz
Red Bull Salzburg
3–1Sturm Graz06/10/24Red Bull Salzburg
Sturm Graz
5–0Red Bull Salzburg28/04/24Sturm Graz
Red Bull Salzburg
2–2Sturm Graz04/04/24Sturm Graz
Red Bull Salzburg
3–4Sturm Graz31/03/24Red Bull Salzburg
Sturm Graz
0–1Red Bull Salzburg09/02/24Sturm Graz
Red Bull Salzburg
1–1Sturm Graz16/09/23Red Bull Salzburg
Sturm Graz
2–2Red Bull Salzburg21/05/23Sturm Graz
Red Bull Salzburg
2–1Sturm Graz23/04/23Red Bull Salzburg
Sturm Graz
0–2Red Bull Salzburg03/02/23Sturm Graz
Red Bull Salzburg
1–1Sturm Graz22/10/22Sturm Graz
Red Bull Salzburg
0–0Sturm Graz30/07/22Red Bull Salzburg
Sturm Graz
2–1Red Bull Salzburg27/04/22Red Bull Salzburg
Sturm Graz
2–1Red Bull Salzburg| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rapid Vienna | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | +18 | 24 |
| 2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | +17 | 21 |
| 3 | Lask Linz | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +14 | 19 |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +6 | 17 |
| 5 | Ried | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 6 |  WSG Wattens | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 7 |  TSV Hartberg | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 8 | Grazer AK | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -15 | 9 |
| 9 | Austria Lustenau | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
| 10 |  Austria Vienna | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 7 |
| 11 |  SCR Altach | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 6 |
| 12 |  Wolfsberger AC | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 5 |
Team Insights
Sturm Graz- ●Sturm Graz have won their last 2 matches.
- ●Sturm Graz have won their last 2 home matches.
- ●Sturm Graz have scored in each of their last 4 home matches.
- ●63% of Sturm Graz's goals have been scored at home.
- ●70% of Sturm Graz's goals conceded were conceded away.
- ●Sturm Graz have conceded 60% of their goals in the first half.
Red Bull- ●Red Bull Salzburg have been undefeated in their last 9 matches.
- ●Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in each of their last 3 matches.
- ●Red Bull Salzburg have won their last 5 home matches.
- ●Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in their last 2 home matches.
- ●Red Bull Salzburg have scored in each of their last 5 home matches.
- ●Red Bull Salzburg have been undefeated in their last 4 away matches.
- ●Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their 5 home matches.
- ●76% of Red Bull Salzburg's goals have been scored at home.
Season Schedule
Sturm GrazWHGrazer AK6–1
Grazer AK6–1WAAustria Vienna2–0
Austria Vienna2–0LARed Bull Salzburg0–3
Red Bull Salzburg0–3WHLask Linz2–1
Lask Linz2–1LARapid Vienna1–3
Rapid Vienna1–3DHAustria Lustenau1–1
Austria Lustenau1–1–HRied25/10
Ried25/10–AWolfsberger AC01/11
Wolfsberger AC01/11–HRed Bull Salzburg08/11
Red Bull Salzburg08/11Red BullWHSCR Altach3–0
SCR Altach3–0DAGrazer AK0–0
Grazer AK0–0WHSturm Graz3–0
Sturm Graz3–0DARied1–1
Ried1–1WHRapid Vienna5–1
Rapid Vienna5–1WHAustria Vienna4–1
Austria Vienna4–1–ALask Linz25/10
Lask Linz25/10–HAustria Lustenau01/11
Austria Lustenau01/11–ASturm Graz08/11
Sturm Graz08/11Top Scorers
Sturm GrazOumar Diakité7 ⚽
S. Wlodarczyk5 ⚽
S. Seidl5 ⚽
B. Beganovic5 ⚽
A. Kayombo4 ⚽
S. Jatta3 ⚽
Red BullH. Tabakovic7 ⚽
K. Konate7 ⚽
Y. Vertessen5 ⚽
E. Baidoo4 ⚽
Haris Tabaković4 ⚽
D. Redzic3 ⚽
Cards Given
Sturm GrazJ. Gorenc Stankovic5 🟨
A. Vallci3 🟨
Jurgen Heil3 🟨
Julian Halwachs2 🟨
F. Ingolitsch2 🟨
J. Heil2 🟨
Red BullAbubakr Barry3 🟨
Sota Kitano2 🟨
Bartosz Mazurek2 🟨
Damir Redzic1 🟨
D. Schmid1 🟨
A. Camara1 🟨