Watford vs Burnley — Championship
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Watford and Burnley meet in the Championship 2026 season on 10 October 2026. Watford have recorded 4 wins from 13 matches this season (31% win rate), averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 62% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 54%; and clean sheets in 15% of games. Burnley have won 0% of their 15 matches, with 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 87%, Over 2.5 at 60%, and clean sheets at 7%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.76 for Watford and 1.24 for Burnley. The models give Watford a 47% win probability, with a draw at 25% and an Burnley win at 28%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 58% and BTTS at 58%.
Season Statistics
Watford—
Burnley17º
Position
24º
1.14
PPG
0.43
29%
Win %
0%
1.00
Goals / game
1.14
1.29
Conceded / game
2.29
62%
BTTS %
87%
15%
Clean sheet %
7%
54%
Over 2.5 %
60%
4.2
Avg corners
6.0
15.0
Avg shots
15.1
4.7
Avg shots on target
4.1
2.2
Avg yellow cards
1.6
10.7
Avg fouls
10.4
47.3%
Avg possession
54.4%
Home vs Away
Watford
Home (4)
—
Burnley
Away (4)
1.75
PPG
0.25
50%
Win %
0%
1.50
Goals / game
1.00
1.25
Conceded / game
2.75
63%
BTTS %
89%
25%
Clean sheet %
11%
63%
Over 2.5 %
67%
4.2
Avg corners
6.0
15.0
Avg shots
15.1
4.7
Avg shots on target
4.1
2.2
Avg yellow cards
1.6
47.3%
Avg possession
54.4%
Goals Scored
| Watford | Home | Away | Burnley | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 77% | 88% | 60% | 87% | 83% | 89% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 31% | 38% | 20% | 13% | 33% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 8% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Failed To Score | 23% | 13% | 40% | 13% | 17% | 11% |
Goals Conceded
| Watford | Home | Away | Burnley | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 85% | 75% | 100% | 93% | 100% | 89% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 38% | 25% | 60% | 60% | 50% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 8% | 13% | 0% | 33% | 0% | 56% |
| Clean Sheets | 15% | 25% | 0% | 7% | 0% | 11% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Watford | Burnley | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 93% |
| Over 1.5 | 77% | 87% |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 15% | 47% |
| Over 4.5 | 8% | 13% |
| BTTS | 62% | 87% |
| BTTS & Win | 15% | 0% |
| BTTS & Draw | 23% | 40% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 46% | 60% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 8% | 0% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Watford | Burnley | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 15% | 7% |
| Draw 1st Half | 31% | 40% |
| Loss 1st Half | 54% | 53% |
| Scored 1st Half | 38% | 33% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 77% | 73% |
| Win 2nd Half | 23% | 20% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 62% | 40% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 15% | 40% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 54% | 60% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 38% | 73% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 92% | 80% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 54% | 33% |
Recent Venue Form
Watford (H)L
Stoke City1–2
Stoke City1–2W
Preston2–1
Preston2–1D
West Ham1–1
West Ham1–1L
Peterborough1–5
Peterborough1–5W
Southampton2–1
Southampton2–1W
Crawley Town1–0
Crawley Town1–0Burnley (A)L
Swansea1–3
Swansea1–3D
Wrexham1–1
Wrexham1–1L
Norwich1–4
Norwich1–4D
Bradford0–0
Bradford0–0L
West Brom1–3
West Brom1–3L
Ajax1–2
Ajax1–2Number of Corners
10.2
Corners / Match
9 games
League Avg
10.7
81 games
10.0
Corners / Match
9 games
| Match Corners | Watford | Burnley | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 78% | 89% | 94% |
| Over 7 | 78% | 78% | 88% |
| Over 8 | 67% | 44% | 74% |
| Over 9 | 56% | 33% | 62% |
| Over 10 | 56% | 33% | 51% |
| Over 11 | 56% | 33% | 40% |
| Over 12 | 44% | 22% | 26% |
| Over 13 | 11% | 11% | 15% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Watford | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 4.2 | 6.0 |
| Corners Against / Match | 6.0 | 4.0 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 78% | 100% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 44% | 100% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 22% | 78% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 78% | 89% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 78% | 44% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 67% | 33% |
Head to Head · 20 matches
4
Watford
20%
8
Draws
40%
8
Burnley
40%
70%
Over 1.5
14/20
50%
Over 2.5
10/20
20%
Over 3.5
4/20
60%
BTTS
12/20
18/04/25Burnley
Watford
1–2Burnley21/12/24Watford
Burnley
2–1Watford14/02/23Watford
Burnley
1–1Watford12/08/22Burnley
Watford
1–0Burnley30/04/22Burnley
Watford
1–2Burnley05/02/22Watford
Burnley
0–0Watford25/06/20Watford
Burnley
1–0Watford23/11/19Burnley
Watford
0–3Burnley19/01/19Burnley
Watford
0–0Burnley19/08/18Watford
Burnley
1–3Watford07/04/18Burnley
Watford
1–2Burnley09/12/17Watford
Burnley
1–0Watford04/02/17Burnley
Watford
2–1Burnley26/09/16Watford
Burnley
2–0Watford05/04/14Burnley
Watford
1–1Burnley03/12/13Watford
Burnley
0–0Watford29/03/13Burnley
Watford
3–3Burnley15/12/12Watford
Burnley
1–1Watford03/03/12Burnley
Watford
3–2Burnley06/08/11Watford
Burnley
2–2Watford| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Ham | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +11 | 14 |
| 2 | Swansea | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +6 | 14 |
| 3 | West Brom | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 14 |
| 4 |  Middlesbrough | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 13 |
| 5 |  QPR | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +3 | 12 |
| 6 |  Charlton | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 12 |
| 7 |  Wolves | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 11 |
| 8 | Southampton | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +10 | 10 |
| 9 |  Birmingham | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 10 |
| 10 | Stoke City | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 |  Bristol City | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | Norwich | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 9 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 14 |  Sheffield Utd | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 15 |  Blackburn | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 16 |  Lincoln | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 17 | Watford | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 18 |  Portsmouth | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 19 | Wrexham | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 20 |  Bolton | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 21 |  Cardiff | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 22 |  Derby | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 4 |
| 23 | Preston | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -7 | 3 |
| 24 | Burnley | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 3 |
Team Insights
Watford- ●Watford failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 7 matches.
- ●Watford have scored in each of their last 4 home matches.
- ●Watford have lost their last 2 away matches.
- ●87% of Watford's points have been earned at home.
- ●Watford have conceded 78% of their goals in the first half.
Burnley- ●Burnley have failed to win in their last 7 matches.
- ●Burnley failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 7 matches.
- ●Burnley have scored in each of their last 7 matches.
- ●Burnley have scored in each of their last 4 away matches.
- ●69% of Burnley's goals conceded were conceded away.
Season Schedule
WatfordLHStoke City1–2
Stoke City1–2WHPreston2–1
Preston2–1LAWest Brom0–1
West Brom0–1LASwansea0–2
Swansea0–2DHWest Ham1–1
West Ham1–1DAWrexham1–1
Wrexham1–1–ABristol City18/09
Bristol City18/09–HBurnley10/10
Burnley10/10–ACardiff13/10
Cardiff13/10BurnleyLASwansea1–3
Swansea1–3DAWrexham1–1
Wrexham1–1LHBristol City1–2
Bristol City1–2DHMiddlesbrough1–1
Middlesbrough1–1LANorwich1–4
Norwich1–4LAWest Brom1–3
West Brom1–3–HDerby19/09
Derby19/09–AWatford10/10
Watford10/10–HCharlton13/10
Charlton13/10Top Scorers
WatfordA. Nabizada3 ⚽
M. Doumbia2 ⚽
L. Kjerrumgaard2 ⚽
I. Bravo1 ⚽
M. Bola1 ⚽
Mamadou Doumbia1 ⚽
BurnleyZ. Flemming5 ⚽
J. Laurent2 ⚽
Aaron Ramsey1 ⚽
J. Banel1 ⚽
Florentino1 ⚽
A. Ramsey1 ⚽
Cards Given
Watford3 🟨
O. Maamma2 🟨
Iker Bravo2 🟨
H. Kyprianou2 🟨
E. Bove2 🟨
K. Keben2 🟨
BurnleyJ. Laurent4 🟨
Z. Flemming2 🟨
Lucas Pires Silva2 🟨
M. Edwards2 🟨
O. Sonne2 🟨
Kyle Walker1 🟨