Millwall vs Derby — Championship
← Back
vs
–
–
The Den·London·England·20,146
🔒 Pro Feature
Unlock all Match Predictions
Full mathematical models, value detection and advanced filters across every league.
from€8.99/mo
billed annually · cancel anytime
Millwall and Derby meet in the Championship 2026 season on 31 October 2026. Millwall have recorded 7 wins from 19 matches this season (37% win rate), averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 42% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 47%; and clean sheets in 32% of games. Derby have won 19% of their 16 matches, with 1.06 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 63%, Over 2.5 at 56%, and clean sheets at 13%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.62 for Millwall and 1.33 for Derby. The models give Millwall a 49% win probability, with a draw at 24% and an Derby win at 27%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 56% and BTTS at 58%.
Season Statistics
Millwall—
Derby10º
Position
23º
1.40
PPG
0.67
40%
Win %
11%
1.60
Goals / game
0.89
1.60
Conceded / game
1.67
42%
BTTS %
63%
32%
Clean sheet %
13%
47%
Over 2.5 %
56%
4.4
Avg corners
5.5
12.4
Avg shots
11.6
3.7
Avg shots on target
3.7
1.5
Avg yellow cards
2.2
12.9
Avg fouls
12.8
46.5%
Avg possession
51.6%
Home vs Away
Millwall
Home (5)
—
Derby
Away (4)
1.40
PPG
1.00
40%
Win %
25%
1.80
Goals / game
1.00
1.20
Conceded / game
1.50
14%
BTTS %
56%
43%
Clean sheet %
22%
57%
Over 2.5 %
44%
4.4
Avg corners
5.5
12.4
Avg shots
11.6
3.7
Avg shots on target
3.7
1.5
Avg yellow cards
2.2
46.5%
Avg possession
51.6%
Goals Scored
| Millwall | Home | Away | Derby | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 74% | 57% | 83% | 76% | 71% | 80% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 32% | 43% | 25% | 24% | 14% | 30% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 11% | 29% | 0% | 6% | 0% | 10% |
| Failed To Score | 26% | 43% | 17% | 24% | 29% | 20% |
Goals Conceded
| Millwall | Home | Away | Derby | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 68% | 57% | 75% | 88% | 100% | 80% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 32% | 29% | 33% | 53% | 71% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 16% | 14% | 17% | 24% | 14% | 30% |
| Clean Sheets | 32% | 43% | 25% | 12% | 0% | 20% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Millwall | Derby | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 88% |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 24% |
| Over 4.5 | 5% | 6% |
| BTTS | 42% | 65% |
| BTTS & Win | 5% | 6% |
| BTTS & Draw | 21% | 24% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 32% | 47% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 16% | 12% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Millwall | Derby | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 37% | 31% |
| Draw 1st Half | 37% | 19% |
| Loss 1st Half | 26% | 50% |
| Scored 1st Half | 42% | 63% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 26% | 69% |
| Win 2nd Half | 32% | 25% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 16% | 31% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 53% | 44% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 47% | 31% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 58% | 50% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 63% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 21% | 50% |
Recent Venue Form
Millwall (H)L
Swansea0–1
Swansea0–1D
West Ham2–2
West Ham2–2L
Newcastle0–1
Newcastle0–1W
Bolton4–0
Bolton4–0L
Wrexham0–3
Wrexham0–3W
Norwich3–0
Norwich3–0Derby (A)L
QPR1–4
QPR1–4D
Burnley1–1
Burnley1–1LWest Ham0–3
West Ham0–3W
Portsmouth2–0
Portsmouth2–0L
Charlton1–2
Charlton1–2D
Rotherham1–1
Rotherham1–1Number of Corners
11.3
Corners / Match
13 games
League Avg
10.6
115 games
11.5
Corners / Match
10 games
| Match Corners | Millwall | Derby | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 85% | 100% | 90% |
| Over 7 | 77% | 100% | 82% |
| Over 8 | 69% | 100% | 70% |
| Over 9 | 62% | 80% | 59% |
| Over 10 | 62% | 60% | 47% |
| Over 11 | 54% | 40% | 39% |
| Over 12 | 46% | 40% | 29% |
| Over 13 | 38% | 30% | 20% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Millwall | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 4.4 | 5.5 |
| Corners Against / Match | 6.9 | 6.0 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 62% | 80% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 46% | 70% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 31% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 85% | 100% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 77% | 90% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 62% | 70% |
Head to Head · 22 matches
9
Millwall
41%
7
Draws
32%
6
Derby
27%
50%
Over 1.5
11/22
36%
Over 2.5
8/22
14%
Over 3.5
3/22
41%
BTTS
9/22
10/03/26Derby
Millwall
1–0Derby10/12/25Millwall
Derby
1–1Millwall22/02/25Millwall
Derby
0–1Millwall19/10/24Derby
Millwall
1–1Derby23/02/22Millwall
Derby
1–2Millwall06/11/21Derby
Millwall
1–1Derby13/03/21Millwall
Derby
0–1Millwall05/12/20Derby
Millwall
0–1Derby20/06/20Derby
Millwall
2–3Derby14/12/19Millwall
Derby
0–1Millwall20/02/19Millwall
Derby
0–1Millwall18/08/18Derby
Millwall
2–1Derby30/01/18Derby
Millwall
0–0Derby23/12/17Millwall
Derby
3–0Millwall25/04/15Derby
Millwall
3–3Derby04/10/14Millwall
Derby
0–0Millwall08/03/14Millwall
Derby
0–1Millwall14/09/13Derby
Millwall
1–5Derby04/05/13Millwall
Derby
1–0Millwall10/11/12Derby
Millwall
2–1Derby| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | +9 | 23 |
| 2 |  Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +6 | 21 |
| 3 |  Birmingham | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | +6 | 17 |
| 4 |  West Brom | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 17 |
| 5 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | +11 | 16 |
| 6 |  Stoke City | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 16 |
| 7 |  Blackburn | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 15 |
| 8 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +3 | 14 |
| 9 |  Wolves | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 14 |
| 10 | Millwall | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 |  Bristol City | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 12 | Charlton | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 14 |
| 13 |  Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +10 | 13 |
| 14 | Bolton | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 |  Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 16 | Wrexham | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 |  Lincoln | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 18 |  Cardiff | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | +1 | 10 |
| 19 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 20 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 22 |  Watford | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 |  Preston | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 4 |
Team Insights
Millwall- ●Millwall have scored in each of their last 5 away matches.
- ●Millwall have scored in 5 of their 5 away matches.
Derby- ●Derby have failed to win in their last 6 matches.
- ●Derby failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 6 matches.
- ●Derby have failed to win in their last 5 home matches.
- ●Derby failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 home matches.
- ●Derby failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 5 home matches.
- ●Derby failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 5 away matches.
- ●67% of Derby's points have been earned away.
- ●Derby have scored 56% of their goals in the first half.
- ●Derby have conceded 58% of their goals in the first half.
Season Schedule
MillwallLHSwansea0–1
Swansea0–1WAPreston1–0
Preston1–0DHWest Ham2–2
West Ham2–2DAMiddlesbrough2–2
Middlesbrough2–2LABlackburn1–3
Blackburn1–3WHBolton4–0
Bolton4–0–HLincoln17/10
Lincoln17/10–APortsmouth24/10
Portsmouth24/10–HDerby31/10
Derby31/10DerbyLAQPR1–4
QPR1–4DHWrexham1–1
Wrexham1–1DABurnley1–1
Burnley1–1LHBirmingham1–2
Birmingham1–2LHWest Brom0–1
West Brom0–1LAWest Ham0–3
West Ham0–3–HStoke City17/10
Stoke City17/10–ASheffield Utd24/10
Sheffield Utd24/10–AMillwall31/10
Millwall31/10Top Scorers
MillwallLyndon Dykes4 ⚽
J. Cooper3 ⚽
M. Sykes3 ⚽
T. Arconte3 ⚽
Camiel Neghli3 ⚽
Caleb Taylor2 ⚽
DerbyS. Szmodics4 ⚽
C. Morris2 ⚽
B. Clark2 ⚽
C. Smith1 ⚽
D. Brown1 ⚽
J. Ward1 ⚽
Cards Given
MillwallJenson Metcalfe4 🟨
Derek Mazou Sacko3 🟨
T. Arconte2 🟨
Lyndon Dykes2 🟨
J. Metcalfe2 🟨
Zak Sturge2 🟨
DerbyL. Travis3 🟨
3 🟨
Mohammed Fuseini2 🟨
D. Ozoh2 🟨
Alex Mowatt2 🟨
D. Sanderson2 🟨