Derby vs Bolton — Championship
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Derby and Bolton meet in the Championship 2026 season on 6 November 2026. Derby have recorded 3 wins from 16 matches this season (19% win rate), averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 63% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 56%; and clean sheets in 13% of games. Bolton have won 38% of their 16 matches, with 1.31 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 56%, Over 2.5 at 56%, and clean sheets at 25%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.40 for Derby and 1.64 for Bolton. The models give Derby a 34% win probability, with a draw at 26% and an Bolton win at 41%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 58% and BTTS at 60%.
Season Statistics
Derby—
Bolton23º
Position
14º
0.67
PPG
1.30
11%
Win %
40%
0.89
Goals / game
1.50
1.67
Conceded / game
1.80
63%
BTTS %
56%
13%
Clean sheet %
25%
56%
Over 2.5 %
56%
5.5
Avg corners
5.5
11.6
Avg shots
13.5
3.7
Avg shots on target
4.5
2.2
Avg yellow cards
1.5
12.8
Avg fouls
10.7
51.6%
Avg possession
51.9%
Home vs Away
Derby
Home (5)
—
Bolton
Away (5)
0.40
PPG
1.40
0%
Win %
40%
0.80
Goals / game
1.80
1.80
Conceded / game
2.20
71%
BTTS %
67%
0%
Clean sheet %
11%
71%
Over 2.5 %
67%
5.5
Avg corners
5.5
11.6
Avg shots
13.5
3.7
Avg shots on target
4.5
2.2
Avg yellow cards
1.5
51.6%
Avg possession
51.9%
Goals Scored
| Derby | Home | Away | Bolton | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 76% | 71% | 80% | 69% | 71% | 67% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 24% | 14% | 30% | 38% | 29% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 6% | 0% | 10% | 19% | 0% | 33% |
| Failed To Score | 24% | 29% | 20% | 31% | 29% | 33% |
Goals Conceded
| Derby | Home | Away | Bolton | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 88% | 100% | 80% | 75% | 57% | 89% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 53% | 71% | 40% | 38% | 29% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 24% | 14% | 30% | 25% | 14% | 33% |
| Clean Sheets | 12% | 0% | 20% | 25% | 43% | 11% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Derby | Bolton | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 88% |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 63% |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 38% |
| Over 4.5 | 6% | 19% |
| BTTS | 65% | 56% |
| BTTS & Win | 6% | 25% |
| BTTS & Draw | 24% | 6% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 47% | 50% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 12% | 6% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Derby | Bolton | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 31% | 25% |
| Draw 1st Half | 19% | 56% |
| Loss 1st Half | 50% | 19% |
| Scored 1st Half | 63% | 44% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 69% | 38% |
| Win 2nd Half | 25% | 25% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 31% | 38% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 44% | 38% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 31% | 50% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 50% | 69% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 100% | 63% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 50% | 38% |
Recent Venue Form
Derby (H)D
Wrexham1–1
Wrexham1–1L
Birmingham1–2
Birmingham1–2L
West Brom0–1
West Brom0–1L
Swansea0–3
Swansea0–3D
Cardiff2–2
Cardiff2–2L
Lincoln1–2
Lincoln1–2Bolton (A)W
Wolves3–1
Wolves3–1W
Norwich4–3
Norwich4–3L
Millwall0–4
Millwall0–4L
Sheffield Utd2–3
Sheffield Utd2–3D
QPR0–0
QPR0–0L
Sheffield Wednesday0–1
Sheffield Wednesday0–1Number of Corners
11.5
Corners / Match
10 games
League Avg
10.6
115 games
10.9
Corners / Match
11 games
| Match Corners | Derby | Bolton | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 100% | 91% | 90% |
| Over 7 | 100% | 82% | 82% |
| Over 8 | 100% | 73% | 70% |
| Over 9 | 80% | 73% | 59% |
| Over 10 | 60% | 64% | 47% |
| Over 11 | 40% | 45% | 39% |
| Over 12 | 40% | 27% | 29% |
| Over 13 | 30% | 18% | 20% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Derby | Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| Corners Against / Match | 6.0 | 5.4 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 80% | 73% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 70% | 64% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 60% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 100% | 82% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 90% | 82% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 70% | 45% |
Head to Head · 16 matches
8
Derby
50%
5
Draws
31%
3
Bolton
19%
69%
Over 1.5
11/16
50%
Over 2.5
8/16
25%
Over 3.5
4/16
44%
BTTS
7/16
16/03/24Bolton
Derby
1–0Bolton02/09/23Derby
Bolton
2–1Derby21/01/23Bolton
Derby
2–1Bolton27/12/22Derby
Bolton
0–0Derby13/04/19Bolton
Derby
4–0Bolton29/09/18Derby
Bolton
1–0Derby07/04/18Bolton
Derby
3–0Bolton19/08/17Derby
Bolton
1–2Derby09/04/16Bolton
Derby
4–1Bolton08/08/15Derby
Bolton
0–0Derby07/02/15Bolton
Derby
4–1Bolton27/09/14Derby
Bolton
0–2Derby11/03/14Bolton
Derby
0–0Bolton17/09/13Derby
Bolton
2–2Derby19/02/13Bolton
Derby
1–1Bolton21/08/12Derby
Bolton
2–0Derby| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | +9 | 23 |
| 2 |  Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +6 | 21 |
| 3 | Birmingham | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | +6 | 17 |
| 4 | West Brom | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 17 |
| 5 |  West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | +11 | 16 |
| 6 |  Stoke City | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 16 |
| 7 |  Blackburn | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 15 |
| 8 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +3 | 14 |
| 9 | Wolves | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 14 |
| 10 | Millwall | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 |  Bristol City | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 12 |  Charlton | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 14 |
| 13 |  Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +10 | 13 |
| 14 | Bolton | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 16 | Wrexham | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Lincoln | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 18 | Cardiff | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | +1 | 10 |
| 19 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 20 |  Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 21 |  Burnley | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 22 |  Watford | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 |  Preston | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 4 |
Team Insights
Derby- ●Derby have failed to win in their last 6 matches.
- ●Derby failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 6 matches.
- ●Derby have failed to win in their last 5 home matches.
- ●Derby failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 home matches.
- ●Derby failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 5 home matches.
- ●Derby failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 5 away matches.
- ●67% of Derby's points have been earned away.
- ●Derby have scored 56% of their goals in the first half.
- ●Derby have conceded 58% of their goals in the first half.
Bolton- ●Bolton have scored in each of their last 5 matches.
- ●Bolton have won their last 2 away matches.
- ●Bolton failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 5 home matches.
- ●Bolton failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 5 away matches.
Season Schedule
DerbyLAQPR1–4
QPR1–4DHWrexham1–1
Wrexham1–1DABurnley1–1
Burnley1–1LHBirmingham1–2
Birmingham1–2LHWest Brom0–1
West Brom0–1LAWest Ham0–3
West Ham0–3–HStoke City17/10
Stoke City17/10–ASheffield Utd24/10
Sheffield Utd24/10–AMillwall31/10
Millwall31/10BoltonWAWolves3–1
Wolves3–1LHStoke City1–2
Stoke City1–2WANorwich4–3
Norwich4–3WHCardiff1–0
Cardiff1–0LHWest Ham2–3
West Ham2–3LAMillwall0–4
Millwall0–4–ASouthampton17/10
Southampton17/10–HMiddlesbrough23/10
Middlesbrough23/10–HBristol City31/10
Bristol City31/10Top Scorers
DerbyS. Szmodics4 ⚽
C. Morris2 ⚽
B. Clark2 ⚽
C. Smith1 ⚽
D. Brown1 ⚽
J. Ward1 ⚽
BoltonR. Rodrigues4 ⚽
T. Gale2 ⚽
Atsuki Ito2 ⚽
S. Dalby2 ⚽
Sam Dalby2 ⚽
Thierry Gale2 ⚽
Cards Given
DerbyL. Travis3 🟨
3 🟨
Mohammed Fuseini2 🟨
D. Ozoh2 🟨
Alex Mowatt2 🟨
D. Sanderson2 🟨
BoltonC. Forino-Joseph2 🟨
B. Davies1 🟨
Ben Davies1 🟨
Akin Famewo1 🟨
Ethan Erhahon1 🟨
A. Famewo1 🟨