Southampton vs Derby — Championship
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Southampton and Derby meet in the Championship 2026 season on 21 November 2026. Southampton have recorded 10 wins from 16 matches this season (63% win rate), averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 69% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 56%; and clean sheets in 31% of games. Derby have won 17% of their 18 matches, with 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 61%, Over 2.5 at 56%, and clean sheets at 11%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 2.08 for Southampton and 1.24 for Derby. The models give Southampton a 61% win probability, with a draw at 21% and an Derby win at 18%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 63% and BTTS at 60%.
Season Statistics
Southampton—
Derby7º
Position
23º
1.91
PPG
0.55
55%
Win %
9%
1.91
Goals / game
0.82
0.91
Conceded / game
1.82
69%
BTTS %
61%
31%
Clean sheet %
11%
56%
Over 2.5 %
56%
4.8
Avg corners
5.4
15.5
Avg shots
12.3
4.4
Avg shots on target
3.8
1.9
Avg yellow cards
2.2
8.2
Avg fouls
12.5
57.7%
Avg possession
51.8%
Home vs Away
Southampton
Home (6)
—
Derby
Away (5)
2.67
PPG
0.80
83%
Win %
20%
2.67
Goals / game
1.00
0.67
Conceded / game
2.00
71%
BTTS %
60%
29%
Clean sheet %
20%
71%
Over 2.5 %
50%
4.8
Avg corners
5.4
15.5
Avg shots
12.3
4.4
Avg shots on target
3.8
1.9
Avg yellow cards
2.2
57.7%
Avg possession
51.8%
Goals Scored
| Southampton | Home | Away | Derby | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 94% | 86% | 100% | 72% | 63% | 80% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 44% | 57% | 33% | 22% | 13% | 30% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 31% | 57% | 11% | 6% | 0% | 10% |
| Failed To Score | 6% | 14% | 0% | 28% | 38% | 20% |
Goals Conceded
| Southampton | Home | Away | Derby | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 69% | 71% | 67% | 89% | 100% | 80% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 19% | 14% | 22% | 50% | 63% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 6% | 14% | 0% | 22% | 13% | 30% |
| Clean Sheets | 31% | 29% | 33% | 11% | 0% | 20% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Southampton | Derby | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 94% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 83% |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 22% |
| Over 4.5 | 19% | 6% |
| BTTS | 69% | 61% |
| BTTS & Win | 38% | 6% |
| BTTS & Draw | 13% | 22% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 56% | 44% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 0% | 11% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Southampton | Derby | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 50% | 29% |
| Draw 1st Half | 38% | 24% |
| Loss 1st Half | 13% | 47% |
| Scored 1st Half | 69% | 59% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 44% | 65% |
| Win 2nd Half | 50% | 24% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 31% | 29% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 19% | 47% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 63% | 29% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 38% | 53% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 81% | 94% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 44% | 47% |
Recent Venue Form
Southampton (H)D
Bolton0–0
Bolton0–0W
Portsmouth1–0
Portsmouth1–0W
Bristol City4–1
Bristol City4–1W
Swansea3–1
Swansea3–1W
Millwall5–1
Millwall5–1L
West Ham1–4
West Ham1–4Derby (A)L
QPR1–4
QPR1–4D
Burnley1–1
Burnley1–1LWest Ham0–3
West Ham0–3WPortsmouth2–0
Portsmouth2–0L
Charlton1–2
Charlton1–2D
Rotherham1–1
Rotherham1–1Number of Corners
8.8
Corners / Match
13 games
League Avg
10.4
131 games
10.8
Corners / Match
12 games
| Match Corners | Southampton | Derby | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 69% | 92% | 89% |
| Over 7 | 54% | 92% | 80% |
| Over 8 | 31% | 92% | 67% |
| Over 9 | 31% | 75% | 57% |
| Over 10 | 23% | 58% | 46% |
| Over 11 | 23% | 33% | 38% |
| Over 12 | 8% | 33% | 28% |
| Over 13 | 8% | 25% | 21% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Southampton | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 4.8 | 5.4 |
| Corners Against / Match | 4.0 | 5.4 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 77% | 83% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 62% | 67% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 54% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 77% | 92% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 54% | 83% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 31% | 58% |
Head to Head · 6 matches
2
Southampton
33%
4
Draws
67%
0
Derby
0%
100%
Over 1.5
6/6
67%
Over 2.5
4/6
50%
Over 3.5
3/6
83%
BTTS
5/6
11/04/26Derby
Southampton
2–1Derby04/10/25Southampton
Derby
1–1Southampton16/01/19Derby
Southampton
4–4Derby05/01/19Southampton
Derby
2–2Southampton18/02/12Derby
Southampton
4–0Derby15/10/11Southampton
Derby
1–1Southampton| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | +8 | 23 |
| 2 | West Ham | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | +18 | 22 |
| 3 |  Middlesbrough | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | +6 | 22 |
| 4 |  Birmingham | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | +9 | 20 |
| 5 |  West Brom | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | +3 | 20 |
| 6 |  Stoke City | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | +2 | 19 |
| 7 | Southampton | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | +11 | 17 |
| 8 |  Wolves | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | +3 | 17 |
| 9 | QPR | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 17 |
| 10 |  Blackburn | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 15 |
| 11 |  Sheffield Utd | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 15 |
| 12 | Millwall | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 13 | Portsmouth | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 14 |  Wrexham | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 15 | Bolton | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 14 |
| 16 | Bristol City | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 14 |
| 17 | Charlton | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -5 | 14 |
| 18 |  Lincoln | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 12 |
| 19 |  Cardiff | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 11 |
| 20 |  Watford | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 11 |
| 21 |  Norwich | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -4 | 9 |
| 22 | Burnley | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -11 | 6 |
| 24 |  Preston | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -15 | 4 |
Team Insights
Southampton- ●Southampton have been undefeated in their last 3 matches.
- ●Southampton have kept a clean sheet in each of their last 3 matches.
- ●Southampton have been undefeated in their last 6 home matches.
- ●Southampton have kept a clean sheet in their last 2 home matches.
- ●Southampton have scored in each of their last 5 away matches.
- ●Southampton failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Southampton failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 5 away matches.
- ●Southampton have scored in 5 of their 5 away matches.
- ●76% of Southampton's goals have been scored at home.
- ●76% of Southampton's points have been earned at home.
Derby- ●Derby have failed to win in their last 7 matches.
- ●Derby failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 7 matches.
- ●Derby have failed to win in their last 6 home matches.
- ●Derby failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 6 home matches.
- ●Derby failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Derby have lost 4 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Derby failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 5 away matches.
- ●67% of Derby's points have been earned away.
- ●Derby have scored 56% of their goals in the first half.
- ●Derby have conceded 55% of their goals in the first half.
Season Schedule
SouthamptonDHBolton0–0
Bolton0–0WANorwich1–0
Norwich1–0WHPortsmouth1–0
Portsmouth1–0LAWrexham1–2
Wrexham1–2WHBristol City4–1
Bristol City4–1WHSwansea3–1
Swansea3–1–AWest Ham24/10
West Ham24/10–HQPR31/10
QPR31/10–AWest Brom03/11
West Brom03/11DerbyLHStoke City0–1
Stoke City0–1LAQPR1–4
QPR1–4DHWrexham1–1
Wrexham1–1DABurnley1–1
Burnley1–1LHBirmingham1–2
Birmingham1–2LHWest Brom0–1
West Brom0–1–ASheffield Utd24/10
Sheffield Utd24/10–AMillwall31/10
Millwall31/10–HNorwich03/11
Norwich03/11Top Scorers
SouthamptonC. Larin5 ⚽
L. Scienza3 ⚽
Cyle Larin3 ⚽
Finn Azaz2 ⚽
Kuryu Matsuki2 ⚽
L. Dobbin2 ⚽
DerbyS. Szmodics4 ⚽
C. Morris2 ⚽
B. Clark2 ⚽
C. Smith1 ⚽
D. Brown1 ⚽
J. Ward1 ⚽
Cards Given
SouthamptonCameron Bragg3 🟨
3 🟨
F. Downes2 🟨
J. Bree2 🟨
Cyle Larin2 🟨
R. Manning2 🟨
DerbyL. Travis3 🟨
D. Ozoh3 🟨
3 🟨
Mohammed Fuseini2 🟨
Alex Mowatt2 🟨
D. Sanderson2 🟨