Jarosław vs Chełmianka Chełm — III Liga - Group 4
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Jarosław and Chełmianka Chełm meet in the III Liga - Group 4 2026 season on 14 November 2026. Jarosław have recorded 7 wins from 17 matches this season (41% win rate), averaging 2.29 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 88% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 88%; and clean sheets in 12% of games. Chełmianka Chełm have won 59% of their 17 matches, with 1.53 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 53%, Over 2.5 at 59%, and clean sheets at 41%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.65 for Jarosław and 1.51 for Chełmianka Chełm. The models give Jarosław a 32% win probability, with a draw at 25% and an Chełmianka Chełm win at 43%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 61% and BTTS at 63%.
Season Statistics
Home vs Away
Goals Scored
| Jarosław | Home | Away | Chełmianka Chełm | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 100% | 100% | 100% | 88% | 100% | 80% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 59% | 67% | 50% | 59% | 71% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 35% | 44% | 25% | 6% | 0% | 10% |
| Failed To Score | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12% | 0% | 20% |
Goals Conceded
| Jarosław | Home | Away | Chełmianka Chełm | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 88% | 78% | 100% | 59% | 71% | 50% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 71% | 67% | 75% | 29% | 0% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 18% | 11% | 25% | 12% | 0% | 20% |
| Clean Sheets | 12% | 22% | 0% | 41% | 29% | 50% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Jarosław | Chełmianka Chełm | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 94% |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 82% |
| Over 2.5 | 88% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 65% | 18% |
| Over 4.5 | 24% | 6% |
| BTTS | 88% | 53% |
| BTTS & Win | 29% | 24% |
| BTTS & Draw | 24% | 18% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 82% | 47% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 6% | 12% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Jarosław | Chełmianka Chełm | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 35% | 47% |
| Draw 1st Half | 41% | 35% |
| Loss 1st Half | 24% | 18% |
| Scored 1st Half | 65% | 59% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 47% | 35% |
| Win 2nd Half | 41% | 24% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 35% | 76% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 24% | 0% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 76% | 65% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 53% | 47% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 76% | 76% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 53% | 41% |
Recent Venue Form
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 0 | +14 | 30 | |
| 2 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | +12 | 23 | |
| 3 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | +7 | 23 | |
| 4 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | +3 | 23 | |
| 5 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | +7 | 20 | |
| 6 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 20 | |
| 7 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | +6 | 17 | |
| 8 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | +1 | 17 | |
| 9 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 16 | |
| 10 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 14 | |
| 11 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 14 | |
| 12 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 14 | |
| 13 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | -1 | 13 | |
| 14 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 12 | |
| 15 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -7 | 12 | |
| 16 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 11 | |
| 17 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 9 | |
| 18 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -10 | 8 |
Team Insights
- ●Jarosław have failed to win in their last 3 matches.
- ●Jarosław failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 6 matches.
- ●Jarosław have scored in each of their last 12 matches.
- ●Jarosław have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 6 matches.
- ●Jarosław have scored in each of their last 7 home matches.
- ●Jarosław failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 away matches.
- ●Jarosław have scored in each of their last 5 away matches.
- ●Jarosław have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 away matches.
- ●Jarosław failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 7 home matches.
- ●Jarosław have scored in 7 of their 7 home matches.
- ●Jarosław failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 5 away matches.
- ●Jarosław have scored in 5 of their 5 away matches.
- ●71% of Jarosław's goals have been scored at home.
- ●76% of Jarosław's points have been earned at home.
- ●Jarosław have conceded 59% of their goals in the first half.
- ●Chełmianka Chełm have been undefeated in their last 12 matches.
- ●Chełmianka Chełm have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 matches.
- ●Chełmianka Chełm have won their last 2 home matches.
- ●Chełmianka Chełm have scored in each of their last 6 home matches.
- ●Chełmianka Chełm have been undefeated in their last 6 away matches.
- ●Chełmianka Chełm failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Chełmianka Chełm have scored in 6 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Chełmianka Chełm have kept a clean sheet in 5 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Chełmianka Chełm have won 4 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Chełmianka Chełm have scored in 5 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Chełmianka Chełm have scored 60% of their goals in the first half.