UD Ourense vs Mérida AD — Primera División RFEF - Group 1
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UD Ourense and Mérida AD meet in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2026 season on 15 November 2026. UD Ourense have recorded 1 wins from 7 matches this season (14% win rate), averaging 0.43 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 29% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 29%; and clean sheets in 29% of games. Mérida AD have won 36% of their 11 matches, with 1.18 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 36%, Over 2.5 at 55%, and clean sheets at 18%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.13 for UD Ourense and 0.98 for Mérida AD. The models give UD Ourense a 40% win probability, with a draw at 30% and an Mérida AD win at 30%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 35% and BTTS at 42%.
Season Statistics
UD OurenseMérida ADHome vs Away
Goals Scored
| UD Ourense | Home | Away | Mérida AD | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 43% | 25% | 67% | 55% | 83% | 20% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 0% | 0% | 0% | 45% | 67% | 20% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 0% | 0% | 0% | 18% | 33% | 0% |
| Failed To Score | 57% | 75% | 33% | 45% | 17% | 80% |
Goals Conceded
| UD Ourense | Home | Away | Mérida AD | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 71% | 50% | 100% | 82% | 67% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 43% | 25% | 67% | 45% | 50% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 29% | 25% | 33% | 36% | 33% | 40% |
| Clean Sheets | 29% | 50% | 0% | 18% | 33% | 0% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| UD Ourense | Mérida AD | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 86% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 73% |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 27% |
| Over 4.5 | 0% | 18% |
| BTTS | 29% | 36% |
| BTTS & Win | 0% | 18% |
| BTTS & Draw | 14% | 0% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 14% | 36% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 14% | 18% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| UD Ourense | Mérida AD | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 0% | 18% |
| Draw 1st Half | 43% | 36% |
| Loss 1st Half | 57% | 45% |
| Scored 1st Half | 0% | 36% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 57% | 55% |
| Win 2nd Half | 29% | 18% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 29% | 27% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 43% | 55% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 43% | 45% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 43% | 64% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 57% | 73% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 14% | 45% |
Recent Venue Form
UD Ourense (H)
Barakaldo1–0
Cacereño0–0
UD Logroñés0–3
Ponferradina0–1
Conquense1–0
Reddis2–1Mérida AD (A)
Pontevedra2–1Ponferradina0–1
Cultural Leonesa0–1
Leganes0–3
Benfica B0–4
Osasuna II2–1| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lugo | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +8 | 19 |
| 2 | UD Logroñés | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +6 | 16 |
| 3 |  Racing Ferrol | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 13 |
| 4 |  Athletic Club II | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +4 | 12 |
| 5 | Cacereño | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +3 | 12 |
| 6 |  Mirandes | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 11 |
| 7 |  Zamora | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 11 |
| 8 | Cultural Leonesa | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 11 |
| 9 | Ponferradina | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 |  Real Unión | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 9 |
| 11 |  Extremadura 1924 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 9 |
| 12 | Mérida AD | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 13 |  Real Avilés | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 8 |
| 14 |  Deportivo La Coruña II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 15 | Pontevedra | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 16 |  Unionistas de Salamanca | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 | Barakaldo | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 |  CD Coria | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 19 | UD Ourense | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
| 20 |  Arenas Getxo | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 2 |
Team Insights
UD Ourense- ●UD Ourense have been undefeated in their last 3 matches.
- ●UD Ourense have kept a clean sheet in their last 2 home matches.
Mérida AD- ●Mérida AD have won their last 2 matches.
- ●Mérida AD have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 matches.
- ●Mérida AD have scored in each of their last 4 home matches.
- ●82% of Mérida AD's goals have been scored at home.
- ●75% of Mérida AD's goals conceded were conceded at home.
Season Schedule
UD OurenseBarakaldo1–0Real Unión1–1Cacereño0–0Unionistas de Salamanca1–3UD Logroñés0–3Mirandes0–2Real Avilés18/10Arenas Getxo24/10Cultural Leonesa01/11Mérida ADPontevedra2–1Cacereño2–0UD Logroñés3–5Ponferradina0–1Mirandes3–4Cultural Leonesa0–1Arenas Getxo18/10CD Coria25/10Lugo01/11Top Scorers
UD OurenseMérida ADCards Given
UD OurenseMérida AD