Bayern München vs RB Leipzig — Bundesliga
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Bayern München and RB Leipzig meet in the Bundesliga 2026 season on 17 October 2026. Bayern München have recorded 9 wins from 12 matches this season (75% win rate), averaging 2.83 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 75% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 92%; and clean sheets in 25% of games. RB Leipzig have won 55% of their 11 matches, with 2.27 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 45%, Over 2.5 at 82%, and clean sheets at 45%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 3.18 for Bayern München and 1.72 for RB Leipzig. The models give Bayern München a 66% win probability, with a draw at 18% and an RB Leipzig win at 16%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 81% and BTTS at 75%.
Season Statistics
Bayern München—
RB Leipzig4º
Position
5º
2.33
PPG
2.00
67%
Win %
67%
2.33
Goals / game
3.00
0.67
Conceded / game
1.00
75%
BTTS %
45%
25%
Clean sheet %
45%
92%
Over 2.5 %
82%
8.2
Avg corners
7.6
21.3
Avg shots
21.0
7.8
Avg shots on target
7.4
0.7
Avg yellow cards
1.2
8.5
Avg fouls
9.6
68.5%
Avg possession
61.0%
Home vs Away
Bayern München
Home (1)
—
RB Leipzig
Away (1)
3.00
PPG
0.00
100%
Win %
0%
5.00
Goals / game
1.00
1.00
Conceded / game
3.00
80%
BTTS %
71%
20%
Clean sheet %
14%
100%
Over 2.5 %
86%
8.2
Avg corners
7.6
21.3
Avg shots
21.0
7.8
Avg shots on target
7.4
0.7
Avg yellow cards
1.2
68.5%
Avg possession
61.0%
Goals Scored
| Bayern München | Home | Away | RB Leipzig | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 92% | 100% | 86% | 91% | 100% | 86% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 75% | 80% | 71% | 45% | 75% | 29% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 50% | 60% | 43% | 36% | 75% | 14% |
| Failed To Score | 8% | 0% | 14% | 9% | 0% | 14% |
Goals Conceded
| Bayern München | Home | Away | RB Leipzig | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 75% | 80% | 71% | 55% | 0% | 86% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 25% | 20% | 29% | 45% | 0% | 71% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 0% | 0% | 0% | 36% | 0% | 57% |
| Clean Sheets | 25% | 20% | 29% | 45% | 100% | 14% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Bayern München | RB Leipzig | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 92% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 92% | 91% |
| Over 2.5 | 92% | 82% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 64% |
| Over 4.5 | 42% | 27% |
| BTTS | 75% | 45% |
| BTTS & Win | 58% | 9% |
| BTTS & Draw | 0% | 0% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 75% | 45% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 17% | 36% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Bayern München | RB Leipzig | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 58% | 55% |
| Draw 1st Half | 17% | 9% |
| Loss 1st Half | 25% | 36% |
| Scored 1st Half | 75% | 64% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 33% | 45% |
| Win 2nd Half | 50% | 45% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 42% | 9% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 8% | 45% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 75% | 73% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 50% | 45% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 83% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 33% | 36% |
Recent Venue Form
Bayern München (H)W
Bodo/Glimt5–0
Bodo/Glimt5–0W
VfB Stuttgart5–1
VfB Stuttgart5–1WRB Leipzig3–1
RB Leipzig3–1W
Aston Villa2–1
Aston Villa2–1L
Jeju United FC1–2
Jeju United FC1–2WVfB Stuttgart3–0
VfB Stuttgart3–0RB Leipzig (A)L
Como1–4
Como1–4L
Werder Bremen1–3
Werder Bremen1–3W
Eintracht Trier6–0
Eintracht Trier6–0LBayern München1–3
Bayern München1–3L
Leeds0–2
Leeds0–2W
Altglienicke2–1
Altglienicke2–1Number of Corners
10.7
Corners / Match
6 games
League Avg
11.4
27 games
11.2
Corners / Match
5 games
| Match Corners | Bayern München | RB Leipzig | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 100% | 80% | 96% |
| Over 7 | 100% | 80% | 89% |
| Over 8 | 83% | 80% | 85% |
| Over 9 | 67% | 60% | 67% |
| Over 10 | 67% | 60% | 63% |
| Over 11 | 50% | 60% | 56% |
| Over 12 | 0% | 60% | 41% |
| Over 13 | 0% | 20% | 19% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Bayern München | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 8.2 | 7.6 |
| Corners Against / Match | 2.5 | 3.6 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 100% | 100% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 100% | 100% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 100% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 67% | 40% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 17% | 40% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 17% | 40% |
Head to Head · 26 matches
15
Bayern München
58%
8
Draws
31%
3
RB Leipzig
12%
85%
Over 1.5
22/26
69%
Over 2.5
18/26
50%
Over 3.5
13/26
62%
BTTS
16/26
15/08/26RB Leipzig
Bayern München
3–1RB Leipzig11/02/26RB Leipzig
Bayern München
2–0RB Leipzig17/01/26Bayern München
RB Leipzig
1–5Bayern München22/08/25RB Leipzig
Bayern München
6–0RB Leipzig03/05/25Bayern München
RB Leipzig
3–3Bayern München20/12/24RB Leipzig
Bayern München
5–1RB Leipzig24/02/24RB Leipzig
Bayern München
2–1RB Leipzig30/09/23Bayern München
RB Leipzig
2–2Bayern München12/08/23RB Leipzig
Bayern München
0–3RB Leipzig20/05/23RB Leipzig
Bayern München
1–3RB Leipzig20/01/23Bayern München
RB Leipzig
1–1Bayern München30/07/22Bayern München
RB Leipzig
3–5Bayern München05/02/22RB Leipzig
Bayern München
3–2RB Leipzig11/09/21Bayern München
RB Leipzig
1–4Bayern München03/04/21Bayern München
RB Leipzig
0–1Bayern München05/12/20RB Leipzig
Bayern München
3–3RB Leipzig09/02/20RB Leipzig
Bayern München
0–0RB Leipzig14/09/19Bayern München
RB Leipzig
1–1Bayern München25/05/19Bayern München
RB Leipzig
0–3Bayern München11/05/19Bayern München
RB Leipzig
0–0Bayern München| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SC Freiburg | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +9 | 9 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 3 |  FC Augsburg | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 7 |
| 4 | Bayern München | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +6 | 6 |
| 6 |  SV Elversberg | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 6 |
| 7 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 4 |
| 8 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 4 |
| 9 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 10 | Werder Bremen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 |  FC Schalke 04 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 |  1. FC Köln | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 13 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 17 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 0 |
| 18 |  Hamburger SV | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -12 | 0 |
Team Insights
Bayern München- ●Bayern München have been undefeated in their last 3 matches.
RB Leipzig- ●RB Leipzig have won their last 2 home matches.
- ●RB Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in their last 2 home matches.
- ●89% of RB Leipzig's goals have been scored at home.
- ●100% of RB Leipzig's points have been earned at home.
Season Schedule
Bayern MünchenWASV Elversberg2–1
SV Elversberg2–1DAFC Schalke 040–0
FC Schalke 040–0WHVfB Stuttgart5–1
VfB Stuttgart5–1–HUnion Berlin18/09
Union Berlin18/09–AFC Augsburg10/10
FC Augsburg10/10–HRB Leipzig17/10
RB Leipzig17/10RB LeipzigWHHamburger SV5–0
Hamburger SV5–0LAWerder Bremen1–3
Werder Bremen1–3WHBorussia Mönchengladbach3–0
Borussia Mönchengladbach3–0–ABayer Leverkusen20/09
Bayer Leverkusen20/09–HEintracht Frankfurt10/10
Eintracht Frankfurt10/10–ABayern München17/10
Bayern München17/10Top Scorers
Bayern MünchenL. Diaz4 ⚽
Harry Kane4 ⚽
N. Brown3 ⚽
Michael Olise3 ⚽
F. Chavez3 ⚽
M. Olise2 ⚽
RB LeipzigR. Baku3 ⚽
B. Gruda3 ⚽
E. Banzuzi2 ⚽
C. Harder2 ⚽
A. Nusa2 ⚽
Christopher Nkunku1 ⚽
Cards Given
Bayern MünchenAleksandar Pavlović1 🟨
Dayot Upamecano1 🟨
H. Ito1 🟨
Kim Min-Jae1 🟨
L. Diaz1 🟨
M. Cardozo1 🟨
RB LeipzigA. Nusa1 🟨
Castello Junior Lukeba1 🟨
Christopher Nkunku1 🟨
Ezechiel Banzuzi1 🟨
N. Seiwald1 🟨
Willi Orbán1 🟨