RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05 — Bundesliga
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RB Leipzig and FSV Mainz 05 meet in the Bundesliga 2026 season on 5 December 2026. RB Leipzig have recorded 11 wins from 19 matches this season (58% win rate), averaging 2.21 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 42% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 74%; and clean sheets in 47% of games. FSV Mainz 05 have won 63% of their 19 matches, with 3.53 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 42%, Over 2.5 at 79%, and clean sheets at 53%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 2.77 for RB Leipzig and 1.71 for FSV Mainz 05. The models give RB Leipzig a 60% win probability, with a draw at 20% and an FSV Mainz 05 win at 20%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 79% and BTTS at 74%.
Season Statistics
RB Leipzig—
FSV Mainz 054º
Position
9º
1.88
PPG
1.25
63%
Win %
38%
2.75
Goals / game
2.13
1.38
Conceded / game
2.13
42%
BTTS %
42%
47%
Clean sheet %
53%
74%
Over 2.5 %
79%
5.8
Avg corners
5.8
17.0
Avg shots
16.0
6.5
Avg shots on target
5.7
1.2
Avg yellow cards
2.2
10.7
Avg fouls
13.0
53.4%
Avg possession
50.8%
Home vs Away
RB Leipzig
Home (4)
—
FSV Mainz 05
Away (4)
3.00
PPG
2.25
100%
Win %
75%
4.50
Goals / game
2.75
0.00
Conceded / game
1.75
0%
BTTS %
30%
100%
Clean sheet %
60%
71%
Over 2.5 %
80%
5.8
Avg corners
5.8
17.0
Avg shots
16.0
6.5
Avg shots on target
5.7
1.2
Avg yellow cards
2.2
53.4%
Avg possession
50.8%
Goals Scored
| RB Leipzig | Home | Away | FSV Mainz | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 89% | 100% | 83% | 89% | 89% | 90% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 47% | 71% | 33% | 68% | 67% | 70% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 32% | 71% | 8% | 58% | 44% | 70% |
| Failed To Score | 11% | 0% | 17% | 11% | 11% | 10% |
Goals Conceded
| RB Leipzig | Home | Away | FSV Mainz | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 53% | 0% | 83% | 47% | 56% | 40% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 42% | 0% | 67% | 37% | 33% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 32% | 0% | 50% | 32% | 33% | 30% |
| Clean Sheets | 47% | 100% | 17% | 53% | 44% | 60% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| RB Leipzig | FSV Mainz | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 95% |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 84% |
| Over 2.5 | 74% | 79% |
| Over 3.5 | 58% | 63% |
| Over 4.5 | 32% | 53% |
| BTTS | 42% | 42% |
| BTTS & Win | 11% | 16% |
| BTTS & Draw | 0% | 5% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 42% | 42% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 32% | 37% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| RB Leipzig | FSV Mainz | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 42% | 53% |
| Draw 1st Half | 16% | 26% |
| Loss 1st Half | 42% | 21% |
| Scored 1st Half | 47% | 74% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 47% | 37% |
| Win 2nd Half | 53% | 53% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 5% | 37% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 42% | 11% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 79% | 84% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 42% | 37% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 89% | 84% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 32% | 79% |
Recent Venue Form
RB Leipzig (H)W
SV Elversberg4–0
SV Elversberg4–0W
PSV Eindhoven1–0
PSV Eindhoven1–0W
Eintracht Frankfurt6–0
Eintracht Frankfurt6–0W
Hamburger SV5–0
Hamburger SV5–0W
Borussia Mönchengladbach3–0
Borussia Mönchengladbach3–0W
Verl4–0
Verl4–0FSV Mainz (A)LSV Elversberg1–4
SV Elversberg1–4L
VfL Bochum0–2
VfL Bochum0–2W
FC Schalke 041–0
FC Schalke 041–0W
Waldhof Mannheim3–0
Waldhof Mannheim3–0WBorussia Mönchengladbach4–3
Borussia Mönchengladbach4–3WHamburger SV5–0
Hamburger SV5–0Number of Corners
11.7
Corners / Match
13 games
League Avg
10.7
72 games
10.3
Corners / Match
9 games
| Match Corners | RB Leipzig | FSV Mainz | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 92% | 89% | 93% |
| Over 7 | 92% | 78% | 86% |
| Over 8 | 85% | 78% | 75% |
| Over 9 | 69% | 56% | 63% |
| Over 10 | 54% | 44% | 51% |
| Over 11 | 54% | 33% | 40% |
| Over 12 | 46% | 33% | 28% |
| Over 13 | 31% | 11% | 18% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | RB Leipzig | FSV Mainz |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 5.8 | 5.8 |
| Corners Against / Match | 5.9 | 4.6 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 92% | 89% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 77% | 89% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 69% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 77% | 89% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 69% | 78% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 69% | 56% |
Head to Head · 20 matches
9
RB Leipzig
45%
4
Draws
20%
7
FSV Mainz
35%
85%
Over 1.5
17/20
70%
Over 2.5
14/20
50%
Over 3.5
10/20
55%
BTTS
11/20
31/01/26FSV Mainz 05
RB Leipzig
1–2FSV Mainz 0513/09/25RB Leipzig
FSV Mainz 05
0–1RB Leipzig01/03/25FSV Mainz 05
RB Leipzig
1–2FSV Mainz 0519/10/24RB Leipzig
FSV Mainz 05
0–2RB Leipzig30/03/24FSV Mainz 05
RB Leipzig
0–0FSV Mainz 0504/11/23RB Leipzig
FSV Mainz 05
2–0RB Leipzig01/04/23FSV Mainz 05
RB Leipzig
0–3FSV Mainz 0508/10/22RB Leipzig
FSV Mainz 05
1–1RB Leipzig08/01/22FSV Mainz 05
RB Leipzig
4–1FSV Mainz 0515/08/21RB Leipzig
FSV Mainz 05
1–0RB Leipzig23/01/21RB Leipzig
FSV Mainz 05
3–2RB Leipzig20/09/20FSV Mainz 05
RB Leipzig
3–1FSV Mainz 0524/05/20RB Leipzig
FSV Mainz 05
0–5RB Leipzig02/11/19FSV Mainz 05
RB Leipzig
8–0FSV Mainz 0503/05/19RB Leipzig
FSV Mainz 05
3–3RB Leipzig16/12/18FSV Mainz 05
RB Leipzig
4–1FSV Mainz 0529/04/18RB Leipzig
FSV Mainz 05
3–0RB Leipzig09/12/17FSV Mainz 05
RB Leipzig
2–2FSV Mainz 0505/04/17RB Leipzig
FSV Mainz 05
2–3RB Leipzig06/11/16FSV Mainz 05
RB Leipzig
3–1FSV Mainz 05| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +19 | 18 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +8 | 18 |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | +8 | 16 |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | +11 | 15 |
| 5 |  Werder Bremen | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +3 | 15 |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 13 |
| 7 | SV Elversberg | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
| 8 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 11 |
| 9 | FSV Mainz 05 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 |  FC Augsburg | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | +3 | 9 |
| 11 |  VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 |  1. FC Köln | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 14 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 15 | Hamburger SV | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -12 | 9 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -12 | 7 |
| 17 | FC Schalke 04 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -11 | 4 |
Team Insights
RB Leipzig- ●RB Leipzig have won their last 2 matches.
- ●RB Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in each of their last 2 matches.
- ●RB Leipzig have won their last 4 home matches.
- ●RB Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in their last 4 home matches.
- ●RB Leipzig have scored in each of their last 4 home matches.
- ●82% of RB Leipzig's goals have been scored at home.
- ●100% of RB Leipzig's goals conceded were conceded away.
- ●80% of RB Leipzig's points have been earned at home.
FSV Mainz- ●FSV Mainz 05 have scored in each of their last 7 matches.
- ●FSV Mainz 05 have failed to win in their last 4 home matches.
- ●FSV Mainz 05 have lost their last 3 home matches.
- ●FSV Mainz 05 have scored in each of their last 4 away matches.
- ●65% of FSV Mainz 05's goals have been scored away.
- ●90% of FSV Mainz 05's points have been earned away.
- ●FSV Mainz 05 have conceded 59% of their goals in the first half.
Season Schedule
RB LeipzigWAFC Schalke 042–0
FC Schalke 042–0WHSV Elversberg4–0
SV Elversberg4–0LABayern München1–6
Bayern München1–6WHEintracht Frankfurt6–0
Eintracht Frankfurt6–0LABayer Leverkusen0–2
Bayer Leverkusen0–2WHHamburger SV5–0
Hamburger SV5–0–HFC Augsburg07/11
FC Augsburg07/11–AUnion Berlin21/11
Union Berlin21/11–ASC Freiburg29/11
SC Freiburg29/11FSV MainzLASV Elversberg1–4
SV Elversberg1–4LHWerder Bremen2–3
Werder Bremen2–3WAFC Schalke 041–0
FC Schalke 041–0LHBayer Leverkusen3–4
Bayer Leverkusen3–4WABorussia Mönchengladbach4–3
Borussia Mönchengladbach4–3LHEintracht Frankfurt1–3
Eintracht Frankfurt1–3–HBayern München07/11
Bayern München07/11–AFC Augsburg22/11
FC Augsburg22/11–HUnion Berlin28/11
Union Berlin28/11Top Scorers
RB LeipzigTidiam Gomis4 ⚽
Rômulo José Cardoso da Cruz4 ⚽
Christopher Nkunku4 ⚽
R. Baku3 ⚽
Antonio Nusa3 ⚽
Christoph Baumgartner3 ⚽
FSV MainzP. Tietz10 ⚽
R. Konigsdorffer7 ⚽
S. Becker5 ⚽
N. Weiper5 ⚽
Phillip Tietz5 ⚽
W. Boving4 ⚽
Cards Given
RB LeipzigNeil El Aynaoui3 🟨
Rocco Reitz2 🟨
Antonio Nusa2 🟨
Nicolas Seiwald2 🟨
Christopher Nkunku1 🟨
Benjamin Henrichs1 🟨
FSV MainzPhillipp Mwene4 🟨
Stefan Posch3 🟨
Sheraldo Becker2 🟨
Alexander Schwolow2 🟨
Ransford Königsdörffer2 🟨
Lee Jae-Sung1 🟨