Estrela vs Casa Pia — Primeira Liga
← Back
🔒 Pro Feature
Unlock all Match Predictions
Full mathematical models, value detection and advanced filters across every league.
from€8.99/mo
billed annually · cancel anytime
Estrela and Casa Pia meet in the Primeira Liga 2026 season on 24 October 2026. Estrela have recorded 7 wins from 16 matches this season (44% win rate), averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 69% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 56%; and clean sheets in 19% of games. Casa Pia have won 25% of their 12 matches, with 0.67 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 33%, Over 2.5 at 42%, and clean sheets at 17%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.44 for Estrela and 1.24 for Casa Pia. The models give Estrela a 45% win probability, with a draw at 26% and an Casa Pia win at 29%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 50% and BTTS at 54%.
Season Statistics
Estrela—
Casa Pia10º
Position
17º
1.25
PPG
0.50
25%
Win %
13%
1.75
Goals / game
0.38
1.88
Conceded / game
2.13
69%
BTTS %
33%
19%
Clean sheet %
17%
56%
Over 2.5 %
42%
4.3
Avg corners
4.0
12.9
Avg shots
9.6
4.3
Avg shots on target
2.6
2.4
Avg yellow cards
2.3
10.8
Avg fouls
12.1
51.1%
Avg possession
44.0%
Home vs Away
Estrela
Home (4)
—
Casa Pia
Away (4)
1.25
PPG
1.00
25%
Win %
25%
1.50
Goals / game
0.50
1.75
Conceded / game
1.00
64%
BTTS %
38%
27%
Clean sheet %
25%
45%
Over 2.5 %
38%
4.3
Avg corners
4.0
12.9
Avg shots
9.6
4.3
Avg shots on target
2.6
2.4
Avg yellow cards
2.3
51.1%
Avg possession
44.0%
Goals Scored
| Estrela | Home | Away | Casa Pia | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 88% | 91% | 80% | 42% | 25% | 50% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 63% | 55% | 80% | 25% | 0% | 38% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 19% | 9% | 40% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Failed To Score | 13% | 9% | 20% | 58% | 75% | 50% |
Goals Conceded
| Estrela | Home | Away | Casa Pia | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 81% | 73% | 100% | 83% | 100% | 75% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 50% | 45% | 60% | 33% | 50% | 25% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 6% | 0% | 20% | 25% | 50% | 13% |
| Clean Sheets | 19% | 27% | 0% | 17% | 0% | 25% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Estrela | Casa Pia | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 92% |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 25% |
| Over 4.5 | 19% | 25% |
| BTTS | 69% | 33% |
| BTTS & Win | 25% | 17% |
| BTTS & Draw | 38% | 0% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 56% | 33% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 0% | 8% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Estrela | Casa Pia | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 15% | 0% |
| Draw 1st Half | 62% | 60% |
| Loss 1st Half | 23% | 40% |
| Scored 1st Half | 46% | 20% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 54% | 50% |
| Win 2nd Half | 54% | 20% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 46% | 30% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 0% | 50% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 77% | 20% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 54% | 60% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 69% | 50% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 38% | 40% |
Recent Venue Form
Estrela (H)L
Academico Viseu0–2
Academico Viseu0–2W
SC Braga2–1
SC Braga2–1D
Famalicao2–2
Famalicao2–2D
Sporting CP2–2
Sporting CP2–2W
Al-Nassr4–2
Al-Nassr4–2W
Lusitano Évora 19111–0
Lusitano Évora 19111–0Casa Pia (A)W
Alpendorada1–0
Alpendorada1–0W
Estoril2–1
Estoril2–1D
Vitória SC0–0
Vitória SC0–0L
GIL Vicente0–2
GIL Vicente0–2L
Maritimo0–1
Maritimo0–1L
Leixoes2–6
Leixoes2–6Number of Corners
8.6
Corners / Match
8 games
League Avg
8.7
72 games
10.3
Corners / Match
8 games
| Match Corners | Estrela | Casa Pia | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 88% | 75% | 74% |
| Over 7 | 63% | 63% | 60% |
| Over 8 | 63% | 50% | 47% |
| Over 9 | 38% | 50% | 39% |
| Over 10 | 25% | 38% | 26% |
| Over 11 | 13% | 25% | 19% |
| Over 12 | 13% | 25% | 14% |
| Over 13 | 13% | 25% | 13% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Estrela | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 4.3 | 4.0 |
| Corners Against / Match | 4.4 | 6.3 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 88% | 88% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 75% | 75% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 75% | 38% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 75% | 75% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 75% | 50% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 38% | 50% |
Head to Head · 10 matches
5
Estrela
50%
1
Draws
10%
4
Casa Pia
40%
60%
Over 1.5
6/10
50%
Over 2.5
5/10
30%
Over 3.5
3/10
40%
BTTS
4/10
18/07/26Casa Pia
Estrela
1–2Casa Pia20/03/26Casa Pia
Estrela
4–0Casa Pia01/11/25Estrela
Casa Pia
3–5Estrela09/02/25Estrela
Casa Pia
1–0Estrela31/08/24Casa Pia
Estrela
0–1Casa Pia08/03/24Casa Pia
Estrela
3–1Casa Pia08/10/23Estrela
Casa Pia
0–1Estrela15/07/23Casa Pia
Estrela
1–1Casa Pia23/04/22Estrela
Casa Pia
3–0Estrela13/12/21Casa Pia
Estrela
1–0Casa Pia| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +16 | 24 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 | GIL Vicente | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 14 |
| 7 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 8 |  Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 |  Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 |  Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 |  Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Team Insights
Estrela- ●Estrela have failed to win in their last 3 matches.
- ●Estrela failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 8 matches.
Casa Pia- ●Casa Pia have failed to win in their last 4 home matches.
- ●Casa Pia have lost their last 4 home matches.
- ●76% of Casa Pia's goals conceded were conceded at home.
Season Schedule
EstrelaLAArouca0–1
Arouca0–1LHAcademico Viseu0–2
Academico Viseu0–2DARio Ave3–3
Rio Ave3–3WHSC Braga2–1
SC Braga2–1DHFamalicao2–2
Famalicao2–2WANacional3–2
Nacional3–2–HCasa Pia24/10
Casa Pia24/10–AMoreirense31/10
Moreirense31/10–HBenfica08/11
Benfica08/11Casa PiaLHSanta Clara0–1
Santa Clara0–1WAEstoril2–1
Estoril2–1LHFC Porto1–4
FC Porto1–4DAVitória SC0–0
Vitória SC0–0LHMoreirense0–1
Moreirense0–1LAGIL Vicente0–2
GIL Vicente0–2–AEstrela24/10
Estrela24/10–HSporting CP30/10
Sporting CP30/10–AAlverca07/11
Alverca07/11Top Scorers
EstrelaL. Antonetti5 ⚽
A. Marcus3 ⚽
Ianis Stoica3 ⚽
T. Moustier2 ⚽
Abraham Marcus2 ⚽
B. Souza2 ⚽
Casa Pia2 ⚽
Benjamin Pauwels1 ⚽
Henrique Araújo1 ⚽
S. Perez1 ⚽
Selvi Clua1 ⚽
Cards Given
EstrelaMax Scholze3 🟨
Stefan Lekovic2 🟨
Luan Patrick2 🟨
Eddy Doué2 🟨
G. Doue2 🟨
T. Moustier2 🟨
Casa PiaDavid Sousa3 🟨
Kaly3 🟨
S. Perez2 🟨
Ivan Mandic2 🟨
Andre Geraldes2 🟨
Alassana Jatta1 🟨