Arouca vs Nacional — Primeira Liga
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Arouca and Nacional meet in the Primeira Liga 2026 season on 1 November 2026. Arouca have recorded 6 wins from 14 matches this season (43% win rate), averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 36% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 50%; and clean sheets in 50% of games. Nacional have won 7% of their 14 matches, with 1.00 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 50%, Over 2.5 at 50%, and clean sheets at 14%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.74 for Arouca and 1.15 for Nacional. The models give Arouca a 56% win probability, with a draw at 24% and an Nacional win at 20%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 55% and BTTS at 57%.
Season Statistics
Arouca—
Nacional5º
Position
16º
1.75
PPG
0.50
50%
Win %
13%
1.38
Goals / game
1.13
0.88
Conceded / game
2.25
36%
BTTS %
50%
50%
Clean sheet %
14%
50%
Over 2.5 %
50%
3.1
Avg corners
4.4
10.4
Avg shots
10.9
3.8
Avg shots on target
3.1
3.0
Avg yellow cards
1.1
10.4
Avg fouls
11.1
48.9%
Avg possession
49.9%
Home vs Away
Arouca
Home (4)
—
Nacional
Away (4)
2.25
PPG
0.25
75%
Win %
0%
2.00
Goals / game
1.00
0.75
Conceded / game
2.00
50%
BTTS %
43%
50%
Clean sheet %
0%
75%
Over 2.5 %
29%
3.1
Avg corners
4.4
10.4
Avg shots
10.9
3.8
Avg shots on target
3.1
3.0
Avg yellow cards
1.1
48.9%
Avg possession
49.9%
Goals Scored
| Arouca | Home | Away | Nacional | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 64% | 100% | 50% | 57% | 71% | 43% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 36% | 50% | 30% | 36% | 43% | 29% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 14% | 25% | 10% | 7% | 14% | 0% |
| Failed To Score | 36% | 0% | 50% | 43% | 29% | 57% |
Goals Conceded
| Arouca | Home | Away | Nacional | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 50% | 50% | 50% | 86% | 71% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 43% | 25% | 50% | 64% | 71% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 14% | 0% | 20% | 36% | 57% | 14% |
| Clean Sheets | 50% | 50% | 50% | 14% | 29% | 0% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Arouca | Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 79% | 93% |
| Over 1.5 | 64% | 79% |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 43% |
| Over 4.5 | 7% | 21% |
| BTTS | 36% | 50% |
| BTTS & Win | 14% | 0% |
| BTTS & Draw | 7% | 21% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 36% | 43% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 14% | 7% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Arouca | Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 27% | 0% |
| Draw 1st Half | 55% | 55% |
| Loss 1st Half | 18% | 45% |
| Scored 1st Half | 36% | 27% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 27% | 73% |
| Win 2nd Half | 45% | 18% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 45% | 27% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 9% | 55% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 55% | 36% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 18% | 55% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 55% | 73% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 36% | 45% |
Recent Venue Form
Arouca (H)W
Estrela1–0
Estrela1–0L
Santa Clara1–2
Santa Clara1–2W
Maritimo2–1
Maritimo2–1W
Moreirense4–0
Moreirense4–0W
Tondela3–1
Tondela3–1DSanta Clara2–2
Santa Clara2–2Nacional (A)L
Sanjoanense0–1
Sanjoanense0–1L
Rio Ave2–3
Rio Ave2–3L
Sporting CP0–2
Sporting CP0–2L
Vitória SC0–1
Vitória SC0–1DSanta Clara2–2
Santa Clara2–2LEstrela0–2
Estrela0–2Number of Corners
8.5
Corners / Match
8 games
League Avg
8.8
73 games
9.1
Corners / Match
8 games
| Match Corners | Arouca | Nacional | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 75% | 88% | 74% |
| Over 7 | 50% | 63% | 60% |
| Over 8 | 38% | 50% | 48% |
| Over 9 | 38% | 50% | 40% |
| Over 10 | 25% | 38% | 27% |
| Over 11 | 13% | 25% | 19% |
| Over 12 | 13% | 13% | 14% |
| Over 13 | 13% | 13% | 12% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Arouca | Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 3.1 | 4.4 |
| Corners Against / Match | 5.4 | 4.8 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 38% | 75% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 38% | 63% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 38% | 38% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 88% | 88% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 63% | 63% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 50% | 25% |
Head to Head · 14 matches
7
Arouca
50%
5
Draws
36%
2
Nacional
14%
79%
Over 1.5
11/14
50%
Over 2.5
7/14
21%
Over 3.5
3/14
50%
BTTS
7/14
21/02/26Nacional
Arouca
3–0Nacional20/09/25Arouca
Nacional
1–2Arouca01/02/25Arouca
Nacional
1–2Arouca25/08/24Nacional
Arouca
1–0Nacional06/05/18Nacional
Arouca
0–1Nacional22/12/17Arouca
Nacional
2–2Arouca28/01/17Arouca
Nacional
1–1Arouca21/08/16Nacional
Arouca
2–0Nacional01/05/16Nacional
Arouca
3–0Nacional02/01/16Arouca
Nacional
2–2Arouca08/02/15Nacional
Arouca
3–3Nacional31/08/14Arouca
Nacional
2–0Arouca16/02/14Nacional
Arouca
1–1Nacional15/09/13Arouca
Nacional
0–1Arouca| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +16 | 24 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 |  GIL Vicente | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 14 |
| 7 |  Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 8 |  Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 11 |
| 9 |  SC Braga | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Vitória SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 14 |  Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Team Insights
Arouca- ●Arouca have scored in each of their last 4 home matches.
- ●73% of Arouca's goals have been scored at home.
Nacional- ●Nacional have failed to win in their last 6 matches.
- ●Nacional have lost their last 6 matches.
- ●Nacional failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 6 matches.
- ●Nacional have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 5 matches.
- ●Nacional have lost their last 3 home matches.
- ●Nacional have lost their last 3 away matches.
- ●Nacional have conceded 67% of their goals in the first half.
Season Schedule
AroucaWHEstrela1–0
Estrela1–0DASporting CP2–2
Sporting CP2–2LHSanta Clara1–2
Santa Clara1–2DAEstoril0–0
Estoril0–0WHMaritimo2–1
Maritimo2–1LAFC Porto0–2
FC Porto0–2–AAlverca24/10
Alverca24/10–HNacional01/11
Nacional01/11–AFamalicao06/11
Famalicao06/11NacionalLARio Ave2–3
Rio Ave2–3LHFamalicao0–4
Famalicao0–4LHAlverca1–3
Alverca1–3LASporting CP0–2
Sporting CP0–2LHEstrela2–3
Estrela2–3LAVitória SC0–1
Vitória SC0–1–HSC Braga25/10
SC Braga25/10–AArouca01/11
Arouca01/11–HAcademico Viseu07/11
Academico Viseu07/11Top Scorers
AroucaI. Barbero3 ⚽
Brian Mansilla2 ⚽
Iván Barbero2 ⚽
E. van Ee1 ⚽
Fally Mayulu1 ⚽
D. Nandin1 ⚽
NacionalN. Kader2 ⚽
Liziero1 ⚽
M. Baeza1 ⚽
Matchoi Djaló1 ⚽
Pablo Ruan1 ⚽
Wesley Gasolina1 ⚽
Cards Given
AroucaPedro Santos3 🟨
D. Monteiro3 🟨
J. Sanchez2 🟨
Espen van Ee2 🟨
D. Nandin2 🟨
Brian Mansilla2 🟨
NacionalZe Vitor2 🟨
F. Soares2 🟨
Matheus dos Santos Dias2 🟨
Markus Jensen1 🟨
Matheus Dias1 🟨
D. Dongmo1 🟨