Casa Pia vs Nacional — Primeira Liga
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Casa Pia and Nacional meet in the Primeira Liga 2026 season on 13 December 2026. Casa Pia have recorded 4 wins from 13 matches this season (31% win rate), averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 31% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 38%; and clean sheets in 23% of games. Nacional have won 7% of their 14 matches, with 1.00 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 50%, Over 2.5 at 50%, and clean sheets at 14%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.04 for Casa Pia and 1.60 for Nacional. The models give Casa Pia a 32% win probability, with a draw at 26% and an Nacional win at 42%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 49% and BTTS at 50%.
Season Statistics
Casa Pia—
Nacional16º
Position
17º
0.78
PPG
0.50
22%
Win %
13%
0.56
Goals / game
1.13
1.89
Conceded / game
2.25
31%
BTTS %
50%
23%
Clean sheet %
14%
38%
Over 2.5 %
50%
4.1
Avg corners
4.4
9.7
Avg shots
10.9
2.8
Avg shots on target
3.1
2.2
Avg yellow cards
1.1
12.2
Avg fouls
11.1
43.2%
Avg possession
49.9%
Home vs Away
Casa Pia
Home (4)
—
Nacional
Away (4)
0.00
PPG
0.25
0%
Win %
0%
0.25
Goals / game
1.00
3.25
Conceded / game
2.00
25%
BTTS %
43%
0%
Clean sheet %
0%
50%
Over 2.5 %
29%
4.1
Avg corners
4.4
9.7
Avg shots
10.9
2.8
Avg shots on target
3.1
2.2
Avg yellow cards
1.1
43.2%
Avg possession
49.9%
Goals Scored
| Casa Pia | Home | Away | Nacional | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 46% | 25% | 56% | 57% | 71% | 43% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 31% | 0% | 44% | 36% | 43% | 29% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7% | 14% | 0% |
| Failed To Score | 54% | 75% | 44% | 43% | 29% | 57% |
Goals Conceded
| Casa Pia | Home | Away | Nacional | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 77% | 100% | 67% | 86% | 71% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 31% | 50% | 22% | 64% | 71% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 23% | 50% | 11% | 36% | 57% | 14% |
| Clean Sheets | 23% | 0% | 33% | 14% | 29% | 0% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Casa Pia | Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 92% | 93% |
| Over 1.5 | 54% | 79% |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 43% |
| Over 4.5 | 23% | 21% |
| BTTS | 31% | 50% |
| BTTS & Win | 15% | 0% |
| BTTS & Draw | 0% | 21% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 31% | 43% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 8% | 7% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Casa Pia | Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 9% | 0% |
| Draw 1st Half | 55% | 55% |
| Loss 1st Half | 36% | 45% |
| Scored 1st Half | 27% | 27% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 45% | 73% |
| Win 2nd Half | 27% | 18% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 27% | 27% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 45% | 55% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 27% | 36% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 55% | 55% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 55% | 73% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 36% | 45% |
Recent Venue Form
Casa Pia (H)L
Santa Clara0–1
Santa Clara0–1L
FC Porto1–4
FC Porto1–4L
Moreirense0–1
Moreirense0–1L
Benfica0–7
Benfica0–7W
Torreense2–0
Torreense2–0D
Rio Ave1–1
Rio Ave1–1Nacional (A)L
Sanjoanense0–1
Sanjoanense0–1LRio Ave2–3
Rio Ave2–3L
Sporting CP0–2
Sporting CP0–2L
Vitória SC0–1
Vitória SC0–1DSanta Clara2–2
Santa Clara2–2L
Estrela0–2
Estrela0–2Number of Corners
10.4
Corners / Match
9 games
League Avg
8.8
76 games
9.1
Corners / Match
8 games
| Match Corners | Casa Pia | Nacional | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 78% | 88% | 74% |
| Over 7 | 67% | 63% | 61% |
| Over 8 | 56% | 50% | 49% |
| Over 9 | 56% | 50% | 41% |
| Over 10 | 44% | 38% | 29% |
| Over 11 | 33% | 25% | 20% |
| Over 12 | 22% | 13% | 13% |
| Over 13 | 22% | 13% | 12% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Casa Pia | Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 4.1 | 4.4 |
| Corners Against / Match | 6.3 | 4.8 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 89% | 75% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 78% | 63% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 44% | 38% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 78% | 88% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 56% | 63% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 56% | 25% |
Head to Head · 11 matches
4
Casa Pia
36%
2
Draws
18%
5
Nacional
45%
55%
Over 1.5
6/11
45%
Over 2.5
5/11
27%
Over 3.5
3/11
45%
BTTS
5/11
08/02/26Casa Pia
Nacional
0–0Casa Pia30/08/25Nacional
Casa Pia
0–2Nacional16/03/25Casa Pia
Nacional
3–1Casa Pia25/10/24Nacional
Casa Pia
1–0Nacional25/11/23Casa Pia
Nacional
0–0Casa Pia28/09/23Nacional
Casa Pia
2–1Nacional09/02/23Nacional
Casa Pia
2–5Nacional19/02/22Nacional
Casa Pia
1–0Nacional19/09/21Casa Pia
Nacional
1–2Casa Pia25/11/20Nacional
Casa Pia
2–3Nacional01/12/19Nacional
Casa Pia
0–1Nacional| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | +17 | 27 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +5 | 17 |
| 6 |  Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 8 |  Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 |  SC Braga | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 | Vitória SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 |  Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 14 |  Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 17 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Team Insights
Casa Pia- ●Casa Pia have failed to win in their last 4 home matches.
- ●Casa Pia have lost their last 4 home matches.
- ●Casa Pia have won their last 2 away matches.
- ●76% of Casa Pia's goals conceded were conceded at home.
- ●100% of Casa Pia's points have been earned away.
Nacional- ●Nacional have failed to win in their last 6 matches.
- ●Nacional have lost their last 6 matches.
- ●Nacional failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 6 matches.
- ●Nacional have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 5 matches.
- ●Nacional have lost their last 3 home matches.
- ●Nacional have lost their last 3 away matches.
- ●Nacional have conceded 67% of their goals in the first half.
Season Schedule
Casa PiaWAEstrela2–0
Estrela2–0LHSanta Clara0–1
Santa Clara0–1WAEstoril2–1
Estoril2–1LHFC Porto1–4
FC Porto1–4DAVitória SC0–0
Vitória SC0–0LHMoreirense0–1
Moreirense0–1–HSporting CP30/10
Sporting CP30/10–AAlverca07/11
Alverca07/11–HSC Braga30/11
SC Braga30/11NacionalLARio Ave2–3
Rio Ave2–3LHFamalicao0–4
Famalicao0–4LHAlverca1–3
Alverca1–3LASporting CP0–2
Sporting CP0–2LHEstrela2–3
Estrela2–3LAVitória SC0–1
Vitória SC0–1–HSC Braga25/10
SC Braga25/10–AArouca01/11
Arouca01/11–HAcademico Viseu07/11
Academico Viseu07/11Top Scorers
Casa Pia2 ⚽
Henrique Araújo1 ⚽
João Rego1 ⚽
Benjamin Pauwels1 ⚽
S. Perez1 ⚽
Selvi Clua1 ⚽
NacionalN. Kader2 ⚽
Liziero1 ⚽
M. Baeza1 ⚽
Matchoi Djaló1 ⚽
Pablo Ruan1 ⚽
Wesley Gasolina1 ⚽
Cards Given
Casa PiaDavid Sousa3 🟨
Kaly3 🟨
S. Perez2 🟨
Ivan Mandic2 🟨
Andre Geraldes2 🟨
Alassana Jatta1 🟨
NacionalZe Vitor2 🟨
F. Soares2 🟨
Matheus dos Santos Dias2 🟨
Markus Jensen1 🟨
Matheus Dias1 🟨
D. Dongmo1 🟨