FC Porto vs Estrela — Primeira Liga
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FC Porto and Estrela meet in the Primeira Liga 2026 season on 13 December 2026. FC Porto have recorded 12 wins from 16 matches this season (75% win rate), averaging 1.81 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 44% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 50%; and clean sheets in 38% of games. Estrela have won 41% of their 17 matches, with 1.65 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 65%, Over 2.5 at 53%, and clean sheets at 18%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.78 for FC Porto and 1.47 for Estrela. The models give FC Porto a 56% win probability, with a draw at 22% and an Estrela win at 22%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 62% and BTTS at 62%.
Season Statistics
FC Porto—
Estrela1º
Position
10º
3.00
PPG
1.11
100%
Win %
22%
2.33
Goals / game
1.56
0.44
Conceded / game
1.89
44%
BTTS %
65%
38%
Clean sheet %
18%
50%
Over 2.5 %
53%
5.6
Avg corners
4.6
14.4
Avg shots
13.4
5.5
Avg shots on target
4.4
1.3
Avg yellow cards
2.2
13.3
Avg fouls
11.0
51.3%
Avg possession
52.4%
Home vs Away
FC Porto
Home (4)
—
Estrela
Away (4)
3.00
PPG
1.25
100%
Win %
25%
2.25
Goals / game
2.00
0.50
Conceded / game
2.00
38%
BTTS %
80%
38%
Clean sheet %
0%
38%
Over 2.5 %
80%
5.6
Avg corners
4.6
14.4
Avg shots
13.4
5.5
Avg shots on target
4.4
1.3
Avg yellow cards
2.2
51.3%
Avg possession
52.4%
Goals Scored
| FC Porto | Home | Away | Estrela | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 81% | 75% | 88% | 82% | 83% | 80% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 69% | 63% | 75% | 59% | 50% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 25% | 13% | 38% | 18% | 8% | 40% |
| Failed To Score | 19% | 25% | 13% | 18% | 17% | 20% |
Goals Conceded
| FC Porto | Home | Away | Estrela | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 63% | 63% | 63% | 82% | 75% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 13% | 13% | 13% | 53% | 50% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 6% | 0% | 13% | 6% | 0% | 20% |
| Clean Sheets | 38% | 38% | 38% | 18% | 25% | 0% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| FC Porto | Estrela | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 88% |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 35% |
| Over 4.5 | 13% | 18% |
| BTTS | 44% | 65% |
| BTTS & Win | 38% | 24% |
| BTTS & Draw | 0% | 35% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 44% | 53% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 6% | 0% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| FC Porto | Estrela | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 38% | 14% |
| Draw 1st Half | 56% | 57% |
| Loss 1st Half | 6% | 29% |
| Scored 1st Half | 56% | 43% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 31% | 57% |
| Win 2nd Half | 50% | 50% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 25% | 43% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 25% | 7% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 56% | 71% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 31% | 57% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 63% | 71% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 38% | 36% |
Recent Venue Form
FC Porto (H)L
PSV Eindhoven0–1
PSV Eindhoven0–1W
Benfica3–1
Benfica3–1L
Manchester City0–2
Manchester City0–2W
Moreirense2–1
Moreirense2–1W
Arouca2–0
Arouca2–0W
Alverca2–0
Alverca2–0Estrela (A)W
Fazendense2–1
Fazendense2–1LArouca0–1
Arouca0–1D
Rio Ave3–3
Rio Ave3–3W
Nacional3–2
Nacional3–2DAlverca2–2
Alverca2–2D
SC Braga2–2
SC Braga2–2Number of Corners
9.3
Corners / Match
12 games
League Avg
8.8
76 games
9.0
Corners / Match
9 games
| Match Corners | FC Porto | Estrela | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 67% | 89% | 74% |
| Over 7 | 58% | 67% | 61% |
| Over 8 | 50% | 67% | 49% |
| Over 9 | 50% | 44% | 41% |
| Over 10 | 42% | 33% | 29% |
| Over 11 | 33% | 22% | 20% |
| Over 12 | 25% | 11% | 13% |
| Over 13 | 25% | 11% | 12% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | FC Porto | Estrela |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 5.6 | 4.6 |
| Corners Against / Match | 3.8 | 4.4 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 67% | 89% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 58% | 78% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 58% | 78% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 67% | 78% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 42% | 78% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 42% | 44% |
Head to Head · 7 matches
5
FC Porto
71%
1
Draws
14%
1
Estrela
14%
86%
Over 1.5
6/7
43%
Over 2.5
3/7
29%
Over 3.5
2/7
43%
BTTS
3/7
26/04/26FC Porto
Estrela
1–2FC Porto15/12/25Estrela
FC Porto
3–1Estrela26/04/25FC Porto
Estrela
2–0FC Porto16/12/24Estrela
FC Porto
2–0Estrela17/02/24Estrela
FC Porto
2–0Estrela15/09/23FC Porto
Estrela
0–1FC Porto26/07/23Estrela
FC Porto
3–3Estrela| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | +17 | 27 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +17 | 19 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +5 | 17 |
| 6 |  Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 |  Vitória SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 |  Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 14 |  Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 17 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Team Insights
FC Porto- ●FC Porto have won their last 9 matches.
- ●FC Porto have scored in each of their last 9 matches.
- ●FC Porto have won their last 4 home matches.
- ●FC Porto have scored in each of their last 4 home matches.
- ●FC Porto have won their last 5 away matches.
- ●FC Porto have scored in each of their last 5 away matches.
- ●FC Porto have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their 5 away matches.
- ●FC Porto have won 5 of their 5 away matches.
- ●FC Porto have scored in 5 of their 5 away matches.
Estrela- ●Estrela have failed to win in their last 4 matches.
- ●Estrela have lost their last 3 matches.
- ●Estrela failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 9 matches.
- ●Estrela failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 home matches.
- ●Estrela failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 5 home matches.
Season Schedule
FC PortoWAGIL Vicente1–0
GIL Vicente1–0WAMaritimo2–1
Maritimo2–1WHBenfica3–1
Benfica3–1WACasa Pia4–1
Casa Pia4–1WHMoreirense2–1
Moreirense2–1WAAcademico Viseu3–0
Academico Viseu3–0–HEstoril31/10
Estoril31/10–AVitória SC08/11
Vitória SC08/11–HSporting CP29/11
Sporting CP29/11EstrelaLHCasa Pia0–2
Casa Pia0–2LAArouca0–1
Arouca0–1LHAcademico Viseu0–2
Academico Viseu0–2DARio Ave3–3
Rio Ave3–3WHSC Braga2–1
SC Braga2–1DHFamalicao2–2
Famalicao2–2–AMoreirense31/10
Moreirense31/10–HBenfica08/11
Benfica08/11–AVitória SC28/11
Vitória SC28/11Top Scorers
FC PortoAndre Silva4 ⚽
B. Sainz3 ⚽
William Gomes3 ⚽
G. Veiga3 ⚽
Gabri Veiga2 ⚽
Borja Sainz2 ⚽
EstrelaL. Antonetti5 ⚽
A. Marcus3 ⚽
Ianis Stoica3 ⚽
T. Moustier2 ⚽
Abraham Marcus2 ⚽
B. Souza2 ⚽
Cards Given
FC Porto3 🟨
Pablo Rosario2 🟨
Francesco Farioli2 🟨
Alan Gonzalo Varela2 🟨
Hwang In-Beom2 🟨
Gabri Veiga1 🟨
EstrelaMax Scholze3 🟨
Stefan Lekovic2 🟨
Luan Patrick2 🟨
Eddy Doué2 🟨
G. Doue2 🟨
T. Moustier2 🟨